College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, December 16.
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7:00 PM Eastern
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Clemson Tigers
Clemson is very balanced, ranking 30th in points per possession on offense and 51st in points per possession allowed on defense. Both teams do a good job of protecting the ball, with South Carolina 20th in turnovers per possession on offense and Clemson 13th in this department. South Carolina is also executing the little things well, ranking 31st in 2-point shooting percentage and fifth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 25.8%.
Picks: South Carolina +12.5 and Under 144 (Greg’s Handicap: South Carolina +9, Total 137)
Rider Broncos vs. Delaware Blue Hens
Rider is 364th in the country in points per possession on offense and 302nd in points per possession allowed on defense. For all of Delaware’s issues, especially ranking 306th in turnovers per possession on offense, they should get more clean possessions than Rider, which is 351st in turnovers per possession on offense and 359th in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Delaware’s 38.8% 3-point shooting against Division I teams ranks 27th in the nation.
Pick: Delaware -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Delaware -12.5)
Florida State Seminoles vs. Dayton Flyers
Both teams have been superb at generating turnovers, with Dayton third in the nation in turnovers forced per possession and Florida State sixth. That leads to plenty of dead possessions in Florida State games, as the Seminoles rank seventh in total possessions per game and sixth in the nation in the percentage of shots taken from 3-point range, with 53.5% coming from the outside. They face a Dayton defense that is 337th in 3-point shooting percentage defense at 38.6%.
Picks: Florida State +6.5 and Under 164.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Florida State +3.5, Under 164.5)
Tarleton State Texans vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Tarleton State has played the last three games without starters Dior Johnson and Chris Mpaka, but even if they cannot play in this one, the Texans should carve up a Mississippi Valley State defense that ranks 361st in points per possession allowed. Both teams are playing much faster than in past seasons, with Tarleton State up to 112th in possessions per game and Mississippi Valley State 34th. Tarleton has also slipped to 318th in points per possession allowed away from home.
Pick: Tarleton State vs. Mississippi Valley State Over 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 154)
7:30 PM Eastern
Marist Red Foxes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech has had a tough time generating clean offense, ranking 321st out of the 352 Division I teams that have played a home game against a fellow Division I opponent in points per possession at home this season. They were also without starting forward Baye Ndongo in their most recent game, which is an issue against a Marist defense that ranks eighth in the nation in points per possession allowed. Marist plays at a relatively slow pace, ranking 245th in possessions per game, while also ranking 38th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and sixth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Marist vs. Georgia Tech Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 130.5)
Little Rock Trojans vs. Morehead State Eagles
Little Rock plays at a slow pace, ranking 314th in possessions per game, but it has not led to good defensive execution, as the Trojans rank 345th in points per possession allowed. Both teams have struggled to take care of the ball, with Little Rock 364th in turnovers per possession and Morehead State 314th. Morehead State does have an edge in generating second chances, ranking 82nd in the percentage of missed shots that become offensive rebounds, while Little Rock ranks 177th.
Picks: Morehead State -3.5 and Under 141.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Morehead State -8, Total 138)
Long Island Sharks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State has become a much more efficient offense with the emergence of guard Jayden Epps, who has scored 20 points or more in four of the team’s last five games. The Bulldogs should also hold up defensively against a Long Island team that has struggled with ball security, ranking 333rd in turnovers per possession. Long Island looks to drive the ball inside, ranking third in the country in the percentage of shots that are 2-pointers, while Mississippi State is 64th in home 2-point shooting percentage defense.
Pick: Mississippi State -15.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Mississippi State -20)
8:00 PM Eastern
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Valparaiso’s overall shooting has been lackluster, as the Beacons rank 328th in 2-point shooting percentage and 309th in 3-point shooting percentage. Northwestern has been much better defensively at home, ranking 99th overall in points per possession allowed, but improving to 32nd in home games, and sits 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 28.6%.
Pick: Northwestern -15 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Northwestern -22, Total 140)
8:30 PM Eastern
Butler Bulldogs vs. Connecticut Huskies
Butler ranks 25th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.9%, which climbs to 42.9% in games played away from home. The Bulldogs are also grabbing 39.6% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds in road games, ranking fifth in the nation. Connecticut is 12th in points per possession allowed on defense and solid offensively at 56th in points per possession, while playing at a controlled pace, ranking 303rd in possessions per game.
Pick: Butler +15.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Butler +11.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Queens NC Royals vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
While Queens ranks 47th overall in points per possession on offense, much of that success has come at home, as they fall to 128th in points per possession away from home. The Royals do not push a fast tempo, ranking 147th in possessions per game, and face an Arkansas defense that is 41st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 29.3% from deep. Queens attempts 50.3% of its shots from 3-point range, the 17th-highest rate in the nation.
Pick: Queens vs. Arkansas Under 175.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 165)
10:00 PM Eastern
Southern Jaguars vs. Cal Baptist Lancers
Cal Baptist holds a significant edge on the glass, ranking 10th in rebound percentage, while Southern is 288th. Southern looks to drive the ball inside, ranking 52nd in the percentage of shots that come from 2-point range, and faces a Cal Baptist defense that is 147th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Southern has also had issues with ball security, ranking 274th in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Cal Baptist -9.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Cal Baptist -17.5)
Montana State Bobcats vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
This game sets up as a tempo war, with Montana State ranking 278th in total possessions per game and Cal Poly fourth. Cal Poly’s biggest weakness with that fast pace has been turnovers, ranking 355th in turnovers per possession, while Montana State is just 233rd in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Both teams have issues on the interior, with Montana State ranking 256th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and Cal Poly 330th. Cal Poly is also shooting 36.6% from 3-point range, which ranks 71st nationally.
Picks: Cal Poly +2.5 and Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Cal Poly -2, Total 162)
11:30 PM Eastern
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Loyola Marymount Lions
UC San Diego and Loyola Marymount are both relatively mid-tempo teams, with UC San Diego ranking 222nd in total possessions per game and Loyola Marymount 200th. The biggest strength in this matchup is UC San Diego’s 3-point shooting, ranking 13th in the nation at 40.2%, while Loyola Marymount is 116th in 3-point shooting percentage defense at 31.7%. Second chances should be limited on both sides, with UC San Diego ranking 326th in offensive rebound percentage, rebounding just 22.4% of missed shots, while Loyola Marymount is 202nd in this category.
Pick: UC San Diego vs. Loyola Marymount Under 150 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 143.5)
