College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, December 30.
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1:00 PM Eastern
Vermont Catamounts vs. Princeton Tigers
Both teams are playing at a very slow pace, with Vermont ranking 333rd in possessions per game and Princeton 317th. Princeton is dealing with an injury to Dalen Davis, who was the team’s leading scorer through the first six games of the season, and the Tigers’ offensive production is well below past seasons, ranking 300th in points per possession and just 307th in the percentage of missed shots that result in an offensive rebound. Vermont ranks 268th in offensive rebound percentage but appears to be finding its usual defensive form, allowing fewer than 70 points in each of its past three games.
Picks: Vermont -1.5 and Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Vermont -5.5 and Total 135.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Air Force Falcons
Air Force is back to playing at a slow pace, ranking 302nd in possessions per game, and is not maximizing those possessions, ranking 338th in turnovers per possession and 286th in offensive rebound percentage. Wyoming ranks 69th in points per possession allowed on defense and is content to win inside, ranking 11th in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage away from home.
Picks: Wyoming -11 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Wyoming -13.5 and Total 137.5)
5:00 PM Eastern
Howard Bison vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Howard has greatly slowed its pace, ranking 236th in possessions per game, while Northwestern ranks 221st. Northwestern is not allowing clean looks from 3-point range, ranking 17th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 28.3%. Howard has also defended the perimeter well away from home, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.6% from 3, which ranks 16th, but the Bison rank 293rd in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Howard vs. Northwestern Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. The Citadel Bulldogs
The Citadel is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 348th in possessions per game and just 301st in points per possession. East Tennessee State is also playing at a very slow rate and has been solid on defense, ranking 108th in points per possession allowed, and should limit The Citadel’s clean possessions. ETSU ranks 65th in turnovers per possession forced on defense, while The Citadel ranks 260th in offensive rebound percentage and 353rd in free throw shooting percentage at 62.3%.
Picks: East Tennessee State -11.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: East Tennessee State -14.5 and Total 134.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Florida State is playing at one of the fastest paces in the country, ranking 12th in possessions per game, while North Carolina has slowed from previous seasons to 197th. Florida State is attempting 53.5% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range, the second-highest rate in the nation, while North Carolina ranks 14th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 28%, a number that could see some regression. Both teams are also creating second chances, with Florida State ranking 77th and North Carolina 65th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Florida State vs. North Carolina Over 160 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 164.5)
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Miami (OH) remains undefeated, with its offense ranking 32nd in points per possession, but the defense has also been strong, ranking 55th in points per possession allowed away from home. Both teams are sneaky good at generating turnovers, with Miami (OH) ranking 72nd in turnovers per possession away from home and Bowling Green ranking 11th, while the Falcons are also 23rd in points per possession allowed. Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with Bowling Green ranking 166th in possessions per game and Miami (OH) 116th.
Picks: Miami (OH) +5.5 and Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Miami (OH) +2 and Total 146)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Pittsburgh has slowed games down, ranking 343rd in possessions per game, and has done a good job preventing second chances, ranking 56th in defensive rebound percentage with opponents rebounding just 24.9% of missed shots. The Panthers also rank 72nd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which is magnified against a Miami offense that looks to pound the ball inside, ranking 48th in the percentage of shots taken inside the arc.
Pick: Pittsburgh +11 (Greg’s Handicap: Pittsburgh +8)
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles
Massachusetts is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, ranking 20th in road rebound percentage, and ranks 58th in points per possession away from home. Eastern Michigan ranks just 258th in points per possession overall and 201st in rebound percentage. The matchup sets up for plenty of dead possessions, with Eastern Michigan ranking 217th in turnovers per possession and Massachusetts 285th, but the Minutemen also rank 93rd in turnovers per possession forced.
Picks: Massachusetts +1.5 and Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Massachusetts -2.5 and Total 144.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Utah State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Utah State ranks seventh in the nation in turnovers forced per possession and is 38th overall in points per possession allowed, improving to 21st in games played away from home. Fresno State ranks 275th in turnovers per possession on offense, but its perimeter defense has been solid, ranking 38th in turnovers forced per possession on defense and 50th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Fresno State +14.5 and Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Fresno State +11.5 and Total 147.5)
St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Pepperdine Waves
Neither team is playing at a fast pace, with St. Mary’s ranking 300th in possessions per game and Pepperdine 220th. Pepperdine will look to contain a St. Mary’s offense that has not shot the ball as well from 3-point range away from home, making 38.3% at home compared to 30.6% away. Pepperdine should be able to capitalize on a St. Mary’s defense that ranks 285th in turnovers per possession.
Picks: Pepperdine +19.5 and Under 131.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Pepperdine +14.5 and Total 138.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos
Both teams do a good job limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities, with Boise State ranking fourth in the nation in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound just 21.1% of missed shots, while New Mexico ranks 41st in turnovers forced per possession. Overall, New Mexico ranks 62nd in points per possession allowed and Boise State 76th, and the Broncos are also slowing games down, ranking 257th in possessions per game.
Pick: New Mexico vs. Boise State Under 146.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 142.5)
