College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, February 3.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Miami OH Redhawks vs. Buffalo Bulls
While Buffalo has been efficient on offense, ranking 49th in points per possession, that number drops to 100th at home. The Bulls are also not playing at a fast pace, ranking 252nd in possessions per game. Buffalo’s three-point shooting defense shows a significant home/road split, allowing opponents to shoot 37.6% from three at home compared to just 30.4% away from home. Miami OH should also see its shooting splits normalize, as the RedHawks are making 40.6% of their three-point shots away from home compared to 35.4% at home.
Pick: Miami OH vs. Buffalo Under 164.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 157)
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Niagara Purple Eagles
These are two of the slowest-tempo teams in the country, with Canisius ranking 349th in possessions per game and Niagara 362nd. Canisius holds a sizable edge on the glass, ranking 224th in rebound percentage compared to Niagara’s 344th. Niagara has struggled defensively on the perimeter, ranking 289th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36%, while Canisius has been more respectable at 142nd. Canisius’ turnover issues, ranking 329th in turnovers per possession on offense, are mitigated by Niagara ranking just 315th in turnovers per possession generated on defense at home.
Picks: Canisius +3 and Over 124.5 (Greg’s Handicap Canisius -1 and Total 127)
7:00 PM Eastern
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Texas Longhorns
This game is likely to feature plenty of missed three-point shots. South Carolina ranks 56th in the percentage of shots taken from three in road and neutral-court games but sits just 279th in overall three-point shooting percentage, dropping to 30.6% away from home. Defensively, the Gamecocks are strong on the perimeter, ranking 52nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 30.9%. South Carolina also plays at a controlled pace, ranking 199th in possessions per game. Texas plays at a similar tempo, ranking 185th, and limits second-chance opportunities, ranking 43rd in defensive rebound percentage.
Picks: South Carolina +12.5 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Carolina +9 and Total 147)
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Massachusetts Minutemen
Central Michigan has struggled defensively, ranking 338th in points per possession allowed, and will not find many second chances against a Massachusetts team that ranks 12th nationally in defensive rebound percentage, with opponents grabbing just 22.9% of missed shots as offensive rebounds. Central Michigan ranks 306th in offensive rebound percentage allowed and 347th in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home, setting up well for a Massachusetts offense that ranks 42nd in possessions per game.
Picks: Massachusetts -10.5 and Over 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap Massachusetts -14.5 and Total 156.5)
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo Rockets
Kent State has become one of the most up-tempo teams in the nation, ranking ninth in total possessions per game. The Golden Flashes rank 158th in three-point shooting percentage at 34.3%. Toledo has struggled defensively, ranking 269th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 35.5% and 278th in points per possession allowed, while Kent State ranks 254th in three-point shooting percentage defense and 227th overall in points per possession allowed. Toledo’s offense has been more efficient, ranking 84th in points per possession.
Pick: Kent State vs. Toledo Over 162.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 171.5)
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ohio Bobcats
Ohio has struggled around the perimeter all season, ranking 348th in three-point shooting percentage at 28.9% on offense and 280th defensively at 35.9%. Western Michigan has created extra possessions, ranking 129th in offensive rebound percentage away from home, with 29.7% of missed shots becoming offensive rebounds, while Ohio ranks 239th in that category. The return of Justice Williams, who missed the first 13 games due to injury, has sparked Western Michigan, which has scored at least 76 points in six of its last eight games.
Pick: Western Michigan +9.5 (Greg’s Handicap Western Michigan +4)
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee remains a strong defensive team, ranking 31st in points per possession allowed, while Ole Miss ranks 100th. Tennessee should dominate the glass, leading the nation in offensive rebound rate with 44.2% of missed shots resulting in second chances, while Ole Miss ranks 193rd in defensive rebound percentage. Tennessee has increased its tempo compared to past seasons, ranking 137th in possessions per game, while Ole Miss plays slightly slower at 237th but ranks 40th nationally in fewest turnovers per possession.
Pick: Ole Miss vs. Tennessee Over 137.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 142)
8:00 PM Eastern
La Salle Explorers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Chicago has struggled this season, ranking 336th in points per possession allowed and 289th in points per possession on offense. La Salle has also been inefficient offensively, ranking 317th in points per possession, with turnovers being a major weakness as the Explorers rank 296th in turnovers per possession. That issue should be lessened against a Loyola Chicago defense that ranks 352nd in turnovers per possession generated. La Salle has also done a better job creating second chances, ranking 103rd in offensive rebound percentage, and if the game comes down to free throws, Loyola Chicago ranks 323rd in home free-throw shooting percentage at 67.2%.
Pick: La Salle +3 (Greg’s Handicap La Salle -1.5)
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Bradley Braves
Valparaiso has struggled shooting the ball, ranking 287th in three-point shooting percentage and 348th in two-point shooting percentage, but has excelled in other areas. The Beacons rank 128th in offensive rebound percentage away from home and 94th in turnovers per possession on offense, helping to offset Bradley’s strength of forcing turnovers, as the Braves rank 29th in turnovers per possession generated. Bradley does not generate many second chances offensively, ranking 274th in offensive rebound percentage. Valparaiso has also been solid defensively, ranking 52nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 89th in overall points per possession allowed.
Picks: Valparaiso +9.5 and Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap Valparaiso +6 and Total 140)
8:30 PM Eastern
SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs. Lindenwood Lions
SIU Edwardsville has been one of the stoutest defensive teams in the country, ranking 36th in points per possession allowed overall and 10th in games played away from home. The Cougars are also seventh in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home. That is particularly impactful against a Lindenwood team that ranks 351st in three-point shooting percentage at 28.7%. If the game is tight late, Lindenwood ranks 312th in free-throw shooting percentage at 68.2%, while SIU Edwardsville actually scores 2.4 more points per 100 possessions away from home than at home.
Pick: SIU Edwardsville +5.5 (Greg’s Handicap SIU Edwardsville +1)
9:00 PM Eastern
NC State Wolfpack vs. SMU Mustangs
SMU plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, ranking 25th in possessions per game, while NC State ranks 132nd. NC State has thrived offensively away from home, leading the nation in points per possession on the road and shooting 43.9% from three in road and neutral-site games. SMU is also a strong offensive team, ranking 40th in points per possession and shooting 37.8% from three at home. Defensively, SMU ranks 117th in points per possession allowed but is solid on the perimeter at 77th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, while NC State ranks 154th, allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from three away from home.
Picks: SMU +2.5 and Over 160.5 (Greg’s Handicap SMU -2.5 and Total 164.5)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Boise State Broncos
Nevada has done the little things well offensively, ranking 17th in fewest turnovers per possession, while Boise State ranks 167th. The Wolf Pack is also fifth nationally in road three-point shooting percentage at 40.9%. This game should feature a limited number of possessions, with Nevada ranking 294th and Boise State 211th in possessions per game. Boise State limits second chances effectively, ranking eighth nationally in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab just 22.2% of missed shots as offensive rebounds.
Picks: Nevada +6.5 and Under 146 (Greg’s Handicap Nevada +2 and Total 140)
