College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, January 6.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Ohio Bobcats
Massachusetts has a sizable edge on the glass, ranking 66th in rebound percentage, which improves to 50th in games played away from home, while Ohio ranks 272nd. The Ohio offense has not executed well this season, ranking 238th in points per possession and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage at 27%, which drops further to 25.6% at home. Massachusetts also brings a solid defense, ranking 82nd in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Massachusetts +3.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Massachusetts -2.5, Total 150.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. LSU Tigers
LSU showed on Saturday that they can still play efficiently without point guard Dedan Thomas, hanging tough in a 75–72 road loss at Texas A&M. The Tigers have been efficient offensively at home, ranking 10th in points per possession, and should not be under much turnover pressure against a South Carolina defense ranking 319th in turnovers per possession forced. South Carolina should also get clean offensive looks, as LSU is 269th in turnovers per possession on defense, and the Gamecocks are doing the little things well offensively, ranking 30th in fewest turnovers per possession and ninth in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: South Carolina vs. LSU Over 146.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 152.5)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals
Despite a few shaky outings to begin conference play, Duke ranks seventh nationally in points per possession on offense in road or neutral court games thanks to elite interior scoring, ranking third in 2-point shooting percentage. Louisville is still dealing with an injury to assist leader Mikel Brown, impacting an offense that otherwise ranks third nationally in points per possession at home. Duke’s defense ranks 12th in points per possession allowed and 54th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30.3%, which matters against a Louisville team that attempts 54.3% of its shots from 3-point range, the highest rate in the country. Duke also slows the game down away from home, ranking 231st in possessions per game.
Picks: Duke -1 and Under 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Duke -2, Total 154)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan has been a freight train, leading the country in points per possession allowed on defense and ranking eighth offensively, with 10 straight wins by 18 points or more, nine of those by at least 25. However, Michigan has struggled to take care of the ball away from home, ranking 208th in turnovers per possession in road or neutral court games. Penn State has been strong in the turnover battle, ranking eighth in fewest turnovers per possession on offense and 36th defensively, while also slowing the pace to 272nd in possessions per game.
Pick: Penn State +24.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Penn State +21.5)
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks
Western Michigan has been shaky defensively, ranking 266th in points per possession allowed and giving up 35.1% shooting from 3-point range in road and neutral court games. Miami (OH) ranks eighth nationally in 3-point shooting and 39th in points per possession on offense, while also winning the turnover battle, ranking 65th in turnovers per possession generated at home. Western Michigan ranks 273rd in turnovers per possession on offense.
Picks: Miami (OH) -12.5 and Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Miami (OH) -19.5, Total 157.5)
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators
Georgia excels at generating turnovers, ranking 30th nationally in turnovers per possession forced. Florida’s guard play has been shaky, ranking 290th in turnovers per possession at home and 347th in 3-point shooting percentage at 28%. While Florida leads the nation in rebound percentage, Georgia should be able to hold its own on the glass, ranking 52nd in rebound percentage.
Picks: Georgia +8.5 and Under 173.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Georgia +5.5, Total 167.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Cincinnati’s offense has been sloppy, ranking 236th in points per possession overall and falling to 305th in road and neutral court games. Defensively, Cincinnati ranks eighth overall in points per possession allowed, but that drops to 78th away from home. West Virginia matches that defensive profile at home, ranking fourth in fewest points per possession allowed, while also ranking 41st in turnovers per possession forced at home against a Cincinnati team ranking 242nd in turnovers per possession.
Pick: West Virginia -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: West Virginia -6.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Toledo Rockets vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois games feature plenty of second chances, ranking 39th in home offensive rebound percentage with 38.3% of missed shots rebounded offensively. Only 12 teams have a worse defensive rebound percentage at home, allowing opponents to rebound 36.9% of misses. Both defenses have struggled overall, with Northern Illinois ranking 341st in points per possession allowed at home and Toledo ranking 282nd overall.
Pick: Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 163)
9:00 PM Eastern
Texas Longhorns vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is back to playing strong defense, ranking 15th in points per possession allowed. The Volunteers also lead the nation in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 44.7% of their missed shots, but are just 227th in turnovers per possession on offense. Texas limits second chances effectively, ranking 25th in defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Texas vs. Tennessee Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 148)
10:00 PM Eastern
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San José State Spartans
San José State has struggled defensively, ranking 316th in points per possession allowed, but allows 17.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than away. Fresno State has been inefficient offensively, ranking 306th in turnovers per possession and 249th in 3-point shooting percentage. San José State has also been strong on the offensive glass at home, rebounding 37.1% of missed shots, which ranks 51st nationally.
Pick: San José State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: San José State -3)
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. Wyoming Cowboys
UNLV has struggled badly from the outside, shooting just 28.6% from 3-point range, ranking 336th nationally, and ranks 133rd in points per possession allowed on defense. Wyoming is much stronger defensively at 67th and benefits from elevation at home, along with strong offensive rebounding, ranking 50th nationally. UNLV ranks just 266th in offensive rebound percentage away from home, grabbing only 24.5% of missed shots.
Picks: Wyoming -3.5 and Over 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Wyoming -9.5, Total 161.5)
