College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, March 17.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots
Liberty and George Mason both play at extremely slow tempos, with Liberty ranking 342nd in total possessions per game and George Mason even slower at 350th. However, Liberty games feature strong three-point shooting, as the Flames rank sixth in three-point shooting percentage at 39.2% but are also 360th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 38.3%. George Mason ranks 92nd in points per possession while Liberty ranks 46th.
Picks: Liberty +5.5 and Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Liberty +4.5 and Total 148.5)
6:40 PM Eastern
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers
UMBC has solid underlying metrics, ranking 85th in points per possession on offense and 45th in points per possession allowed on defense, but they have faced one of the weakest schedules in the country. Howard has been dominant defensively away from home, ranking second in the nation in fewest points per possession allowed. Their biggest weakness is turnovers, ranking 341st in turnovers per possession on offense, but that is mitigated by UMBC ranking just 271st in turnovers forced on defense.
Picks: Howard +1.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap Howard -2.5 and Total 137.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
UNC Wilmington vs. Yale Bulldogs
Yale has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking seventh in points per possession and third in three-point shooting percentage at 39.5%. However, they face a UNC Wilmington defense that ranks fifth in the nation in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 29.5% and 46th in points per possession allowed. UNC Wilmington also holds an edge on the glass, ranking 22nd in rebound percentage while Yale ranks 39th.
Pick: UNC Wilmington +5.5 (Greg’s Handicap UNC Wilmington +2.5)
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State is one of the strongest rebounding teams in the nation, ranking 21st in rebound percentage, while Wyoming is also solid at 35th. However, Wyoming is at a clear disadvantage defensively, ranking 178th in points per possession allowed compared to Wichita State at 41st. Wyoming is also sloppier with ball security, ranking 157th in turnovers per possession while Wichita State ranks 56th.
Picks: Wichita State -5.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Wichita State -7.5 and Total 145.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Davidson Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
These teams play at drastically different tempos, with Davidson ranking 355th in possessions per game while Oklahoma State ranks seventh. However, Davidson’s defense should limit Oklahoma State’s perimeter shooting, as they allow just 28.8% from three-point range in road and neutral games, which ranks seventh in the nation. Oklahoma State is also without leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Parsa Fallah due to a season-ending injury.
Picks: Davidson +8.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap Davidson +7.5 and Total 153.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks vs. Tulsa Hurricanes
Tulsa has one of the top offenses in the nation, ranking 10th in points per possession, but they face a Stephen F. Austin defense that ranks seventh in points per possession allowed away from home. Stephen F. Austin prefers a slower tempo, ranking 301st in possessions per game, and is well-equipped to defend Tulsa’s strength from beyond the arc. Tulsa ranks fourth in three-point shooting percentage at 39.4%, but Stephen F. Austin allows just 30.4% from three, ranking 20th nationally.
Picks: Stephen F Austin +7.5 and Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stephen F Austin +7.5 and Total 146)
9:15 PM Eastern
NC State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns
NC State’s offense has been excellent away from home, ranking fourth in points per possession and second in three-point shooting percentage at 41.4%. However, both teams struggle defensively on the perimeter, with NC State ranking 363rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 40.8% and Texas close behind at 361st at 40.5%. Texas also ranks 346th in points per possession allowed away from home, while NC State ranks 309th.
Picks: NC State +1.5 and Over 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap NC State -4 and Total 162)
10:00 PM Eastern
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Auburn Tigers
South Alabama forces opponents into taking a massive number of three-point attempts, with 64.3% of opponent field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc—the highest rate in the nation. Auburn ranks 37th in points per possession on offense but shoots just 33.8% from three, which ranks 186th. South Alabama also takes care of the ball, ranking sixth in fewest turnovers per possession away from home, while Auburn ranks 299th in points per possession allowed on defense.
Pick: South Alabama +17.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Alabama +16)
St. Thomas Tommies vs. Seattle Redhawks
After years of Division III success, this marks St. Thomas’ first postseason appearance at the Division I level. They face a Seattle defense that ranks 10th in turnovers forced and 20th in points per possession allowed. However, St. Thomas has been strong offensively away from home, ranking 23rd in points per possession, 19th in fewest turnovers, and first in two-point shooting percentage. Seattle struggles offensively, ranking 308th in points per possession.
Picks: St. Thomas +2.5 and Under 148 (Greg’s Handicap St. Thomas -1.5 and Total 143.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
Both teams play at a relatively fast pace, with UC Irvine ranking 50th in possessions per game and UNLV 63rd. UNLV limits scoring chances by forcing turnovers, ranking 26th in turnovers per possession away from home. UC Irvine struggles in that area, ranking 262nd in turnovers per possession and 278th in points per possession on offense. However, UC Irvine is elite defensively, ranking ninth in points per possession allowed and first in opponent two-point shooting percentage.
Pick: UNLV vs. UC Irvine Under 154 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 150.5)
