College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Tuesday, November 18.
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5:00 PM Eastern
Little Rock Trojans vs. Murray State Racers
Little Rock is without expected starting guard KK Robinson for a second straight season, which has forced the team to try to duplicate last season’s defensive effort when they ranked 25th in points per possession allowed. This year, they’re just 303rd in points per possession on offense and 301st in possessions per game, attempting to slow down a Murray State group that is 20th in total possessions per game and 45th in points per possession under first-year coach Ryan Miller.
Picks: Little Rock +14.5 and Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Little Rock +11.5 and Total 151.5)
6:30 PM Eastern
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State has already slowed down one high-octane SEC offense with a 69–66 win this season and now looks to limit a Kentucky team that ranks 21st in points per possession on offense after finishing 16th in that category a season ago. The Spartans should see positive regression from their current 21.7% 3-point shooting and have won in spite of it thanks to ranking fourth in the country in rebound percentage, a metric in which Kentucky ranks fifth.
Pick: Michigan State +5.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Michigan State +2.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Princeton Tigers vs. Iona Gaels
The Princeton offense has not looked the same this season after losing its top three scorers from last year, ranking 313th in points per possession and 326th in the percentage of missed shots that result in an offensive rebound. Iona has been explosive under first-year coach Dan Geriot, making 42.5% of their 3-point shots. While that percentage is due to regress, they’re eighth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at just 20.8%. That’s problematic for a Princeton team that gets 45.2% of its points from made threes, the third-highest rate in the country.
Pick: Iona -4 (Greg’s Handicap: Iona -8.5)
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
While Georgia Tech’s 20.9% opponent 3-point shooting is unlikely to hold all season, the defense has been improved, ranking seventh in points per possession allowed. Georgia Southern is playing very fast, ranking 18th in total possessions per game, but is getting decimated on the glass at 341st in rebound percentage. They’ve compensated somewhat by ranking 74th in points per possession on offense. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, failed to get past 60 points in its first home game of the season, an overtime matchup with Maryland-Eastern Shore.
Pick: Under 166.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 155.5)
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Florida State Seminoles
UT Martin already has one big road win with a season-opening victory at UNLV, and their size across positions should help them on the boards against a Florida State team that ranks 202nd in rebound percentage. The Seminoles are 20th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage thanks to their length, which should slow down a Florida State offense that shot 40.3% from deep in two home wins over SWAC opponents Alcorn State and Alabama State.
Pick: UT Martin +23.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UT Martin +15.5)
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Longwood Lancers
Maryland Eastern Shore is last in the nation in points per possession, entering Monday averaging 12.9 points fewer per 100 possessions than the next-least efficient offense in the country. Longwood is a pedestrian 171st in points per possession and 132nd in possessions per game, while Maryland Eastern Shore ranks 246th in possessions per game—even with an extra five minutes in their opener against Georgia Tech, a game in which neither team reached 60 points.
Pick: Under 150 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 135.5)
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
After ranking 313th nationally in 3-point shooting last season, Kent State’s offense has taken off this year, ranking 44th in points per possession while shooting 37.6% from deep. They face an Eastern Kentucky team that is 311th in points per possession allowed and gambles aggressively for turnovers while playing fast. When those gambles fail, they allow open 3-point looks, as reflected in last season’s 280th-ranked opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Over 158 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 169.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Xavier Musketeers
Xavier’s offense has struggled in year one under coach Richard Pitino, with many players adjusting to the move up from mid-major programs. The Musketeers are 278th in points per possession and are playing more slowly than Pitino’s New Mexico teams, ranking 223rd in possessions per game. Old Dominion returns much of a core that ranked 360th in 3-point percentage last season and is 262nd in points per possession this year while shooting just 29.8% from three.
Pick: Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 143.5)
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. George Mason Patriots
George Mason ranked 10th nationally in points per possession allowed last season and is stout again this year, currently 18th. Jacksonville has struggled with the fundamentals, ranking 336th in turnovers per possession on offense and shooting just 59.7% at the free-throw line, which ranks 355th.
Pick: George Mason -13 (Greg’s Handicap: George Mason -19)
8:00 PM Eastern
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Illinois has shifted to a more mid-tempo approach, ranking 137th in possessions per game after finishing 49th last year. They’re giving up plenty of clean looks, ranking 328th in points per possession allowed. Northern Iowa should see regression on their opponent 3-point shooting defense—teams have made only 20.5% of threes against them, despite UNI finishing 286th in that metric last season. Northern Illinois was 355th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage last year.
Pick: Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 154.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Wichita State Shockers vs. Boise State Broncos
Boise State continues to dominate the glass, finishing first last season in defensive rebound percentage and back in the top 10 this year, allowing fewer than six offensive rebounds per game. But they face a Wichita State team greatly improved on offense after ranking 339th in 3-point shooting last season. The Shockers are now hitting 42.5% from deep and rank 17th in points per possession. They are also 39th in points per possession allowed, with the addition of 7-foot-2 Will Berg strengthening their interior defense. Boise State already lost at home to Division II Hawaii-Pacific and narrowly beat Montana State 62–58 this past weekend.
Picks: Wichita State +9.5 and Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Wichita State +5 and Total 149)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas is likely to be without freshman Darryn Peterson, and even if he plays, he will likely be limited. Duke’s offense got all the attention last season, leading the nation in offensive efficiency, but the defense has been elite as well under Jon Scheyer. They ranked fourth in points per possession allowed last year and are third so far this season. Kansas has held up without Peterson thanks to ranking 17th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Kansas +10.5 and Under 152 (Greg’s Handicap: Kansas +7.5 and Total 147.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Grambling Tigers vs. San Diego Toreros
Grambling is a team in transition after hiring former Florida A&M coach Patrick Crarey, and the new pieces have struggled to mesh, ranking 354th in turnovers per possession. San Diego is fifth in the country in 3-point shooting at 47.7%, and even though that will regress, the Toreros are also much improved defensively—193rd in points per possession allowed after ranking 307th last season. Grambling ranks 274th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: San Diego -5 and Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap: San Diego -8.5 and Total 152.5)
Sacramento State Hornets vs. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have slipped defensively from last season, ranking 111th in points per possession allowed, but the offense—despite guard Donavan Dent dealing with injuries—has stepped up with at least 74 points in all three home games. Year one under Mike Bibby has seen Sacramento State shoot a solid 35.6% from three against Division I teams but struggle on defense, ranking 210th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Over 142.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 152)
