College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, February 11.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Boston U Terriers vs. Army Black Knights
While Boston U is not giving up an obscene number of points per game due to its slow tempo, ranking 317th in possessions per game, the Terriers have been one of the least efficient defenses in the country, ranking 326th in points per possession allowed and 347th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 37.7%. That’s a major concern against an Army team that takes 53.8% of its field goal attempts from three-point range at home, the third-highest rate in the nation. Boston U also struggles in the little areas, making just 69.9% of its free throws away from home and ranking 250th in turnovers per possession.
Picks: Army +3.5 and Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Army -1.5 and Total 141.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
UT San Antonio Roadrunners vs. East Carolina Pirates
Neither offense has found success this season, with UTSA ranking 357th in points per possession and 361st in three-point shooting percentage, while East Carolina ranks 333rd in points per possession and 360th in three-point shooting percentage. Both teams have been somewhat respectable defensively on the interior, as East Carolina ranks 189th and UTSA 247th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. UTSA also struggles to take care of the ball, ranking 290th in turnovers per possession.
Pick: UT San Antonio vs. East Carolina Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange
California has been one of the top three-point shooting teams away from home, ranking 17th nationally at 39.4%, and is 46th in fewest turnovers per possession away from home. Syracuse has struggled offensively, ranking 167th in points per possession, though the defense has been much better at 60th in points per possession allowed. This should be a moderate-tempo game, with Syracuse 184th and California 164th in possessions per game. Free throws could be the difference, as California ranks 16th nationally at 77.8%, while Syracuse is 363rd at 63.6%.
Picks: California +5.5 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap California -1.5 and Total 143.5)
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. Western Carolina Catamounts
Both defenses have struggled, with The Citadel ranking 334th and Western Carolina 339th in points per possession allowed. Western Carolina holds a significant edge on the glass, grabbing 35.8% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds at home, ranking 48th nationally, while The Citadel ranks 319th in offensive rebound percentage away from home. The Citadel also ranks 30th in percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range at 47%, but shoots just 31.9%, ranking 279th.
Pick: Western Carolina -7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Western Carolina -12)
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
This matchup should feature plenty of scoring chances, especially after Florida’s 92–77 win in the first meeting. Florida ranks second nationally in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 43.2% of its missed shots, while Georgia plays at a rapid tempo, ranking second in total possessions per game. Georgia is also strong inside, ranking 22nd in two-point shooting percentage and 24th in overall points per possession. Florida ranks 29th in points per possession and pushes tempo as well, ranking 41st in possessions per game.
Picks: Georgia +7.5 and Over 164.5 (Greg’s Handicap Georgia +5.5 and Total 171.5)
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Kent State won the first meeting 76–75 on the road and plays at a breakneck pace, ranking 14th in total possessions per game. The Golden Flashes shoot much better from three-point range at home, hitting 38.5% compared to 28.7% away. Eastern Michigan ranks 92nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 32.2% and should find quality looks, as Kent State allows opponents to shoot 36.4% from three at home, ranking 290th nationally.
Picks: Eastern Michigan +11.5 and Over 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap Eastern Michigan +8.5 and Total 142.5)
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals
Buffalo has controlled the perimeter away from home, ranking 61st in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 31.8% while shooting 39.7% from three themselves, 11th nationally. Ball State has struggled across the board, ranking 326th in points per possession and 244th in points per possession allowed, while ranking 358th in rebound percentage at home.
Pick: Buffalo -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Buffalo -6.5)
Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Toledo’s defense gambles for turnovers, ranking 73rd in turnovers per possession generated, but sits just 280th in points per possession allowed and 351st in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab 35.4% of their misses. Western Michigan was without top scorer Justice Williams for the first 13 games, but he is averaging 15.3 points per game and has helped the Broncos score at least 77 points in three of four home games he has played. The defense still has issues, ranking 324th in points per possession allowed, though that improves to 181st at home.
Picks: Western Michigan +7.5 and Over 156 (Greg’s Handicap Western Michigan +2.5 and Total 161.5)
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Stetson Hatters
Jacksonville plays slowly, ranking 322nd in possessions per game, but has struggled defensively, ranking 341st in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 37.5% and 319th in points per possession allowed. Offensively, the Dolphins rank 275th in points per possession. Stetson has shot much better from three in conference play, improving from 33.7% overall to 36.9% in conference games and 39.3% at home, ranking 30th nationally in home three-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Stetson +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stetson -4.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion is at a significant disadvantage inside, even if 7-foot-4 Matthew Van Komen returns after missing the past two games. Marshall ranks 24th in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home and 66th in its own two-point shooting percentage away from home. Old Dominion ranks 314th in two-point shooting percentage and 338th in offensive rebound percentage, with just 22.5% of missed shots turning into second chances.
Pick: Marshall -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Marshall -5)
South Florida Bulls vs. Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State defeated South Florida on the road earlier this season and has been strong defensively, ranking 24th in points per possession allowed at home and 20th in overall rebound percentage. South Florida ranks 63rd in rebound percentage but has struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from three, ranking 299th nationally.
Pick: Wichita State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Wichita State -3.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
UL Monroe Warhawks vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Both teams push tempo, with UL Monroe ranking 63rd and Arkansas State 33rd in possessions per game. Arkansas State does an excellent job on the offensive glass, grabbing 36.8% of its missed shots, ranking ninth nationally, but ranks just 148th in points per possession due to being 340th in turnovers per possession. That issue may be mitigated against a UL Monroe defense that ranks 227th in turnovers per possession generated and 341st in points per possession allowed.
Pick: UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State Over 159.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 165.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Stanford Cardinal vs. Boston College Eagles
Boston College has been solid defensively, ranking 50th in points per possession allowed, but has struggled offensively, ranking 319th in points per possession despite being 73rd in fewest turnovers per possession because of poor shooting, ranking 343rd in three-point shooting percentage and 286th in two-point shooting percentage. Stanford ranks 18th in offensive rebound percentage away from home, grabbing 35.1% of its misses, and improves from 131st overall in points per possession to 82nd away from home.
Picks: Stanford -1.5 and Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stanford -5.5 and Total 133.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
New Mexico Lobos vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes
Both teams are strong defensively, with New Mexico ranking 41st and Grand Canyon 32nd in points per possession allowed. New Mexico ranks 36th in turnovers per possession generated and opponent three-point shooting percentage, while Grand Canyon ranks 38th in opponent two-point shooting percentage and 65th in defensive rebound percentage. This should be a moderate-tempo game, with New Mexico 128th and Grand Canyon 218th in possessions per game.
Pick: New Mexico vs. Grand Canyon Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
Pepperdine Waves vs. St. Mary’s Gaels
The slow pace of this game will make it difficult for St. Mary’s to cover a large number, as the Gaels rank 316th in possessions per game. Pepperdine has struggled with turnovers, ranking 307th in turnovers per possession, but won’t face heavy pressure since St. Mary’s ranks 297th in turnovers per possession generated. Pepperdine also avoids fouling, ranking 14th in fewest fouls committed per possession, which is key against a St. Mary’s team that ranks second nationally in free throw shooting percentage at 82.1%.
Pick: Pepperdine +25 (Greg’s Handicap Pepperdine +20.5)
