College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, February 18.
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6:00 PM Eastern
VMI Keydets vs. Wofford Terriers
Wofford should have no shortage of scoring chances in this game, with VMI allowing opponents to rebound 39.6% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, which ranks 363rd nationally. Overall, VMI is 361st in points per possession allowed away from home. On offense, VMI leads the nation in percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range at 54.3%, but ranks 303rd in road three-point shooting percentage at 30.2% and 317th in points per possession overall.
Pick: Wofford -14.5 (Greg’s Handicap Wofford -19.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Neither team plays at a fast tempo, with Penn State ranking 280th in possessions per game and Rutgers 284th. Rutgers has struggled inside offensively, ranking 343rd in two-point shooting percentage. While Penn State ranks 334th in points per possession allowed overall, the Nittany Lions allow 14.6 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than away and rank 49th in turnovers generated per possession at home.
Pick: Rutgers vs. Penn State Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145)
6:30 PM Eastern
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Youngstown State Penguins
Youngstown State’s biggest weakness is ball security, ranking 320th in turnovers per possession on offense, but that is somewhat masked by a Cleveland State defense that ranks 314th in turnovers generated per possession. Cleveland State has its own turnover issues, ranking 276th in turnovers per possession, but offsets that by shooting 39% from three-point range away from home, which ranks 16th nationally. Youngstown State should have plenty of second-chance opportunities, as Cleveland State ranks 360th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab 36.7% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. The Vikings are also 362nd in points per possession allowed while playing at a fast pace, ranking 78th in possessions per game.
Pick: Cleveland State vs. Youngstown State Over 155.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 160.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Butler Bulldogs vs. Georgetown Hoyas
Georgetown has struggled to finish inside, ranking 269th in two-point shooting percentage. Butler does a strong job generating second chances, ranking 42nd in percentage of missed shots rebounded offensively in road games, while playing at a high tempo, ranking 43rd in total possessions per game. Defensively, the teams are similar, with Butler ranking 155th in points per possession allowed and Georgetown 167th, though Georgetown slips to 218th at home.
Picks: Butler +6.5 and Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Butler +1.5 and Total 149.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Both teams want to run, with Alabama ranking fourth nationally in possessions per game and Arkansas 44th. Arkansas ranks 126th in points per possession allowed and 40th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 30.9%. Alabama launches 58.2% of its home field goal attempts from three-point range, the highest rate in the nation, but ranks just 173rd in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Arkansas +4.5 and Under 183.5 (Greg’s Handicap Arkansas +1.5 and Total 175.5)
Dayton Flyers vs. George Mason Patriots
Dayton’s defensive game plan revolves around generating turnovers, ranking fifth in the nation in turnovers per possession generated. George Mason has done a respectable job protecting the ball, ranking 122nd in turnovers per possession on offense, and has been the more efficient offense overall, ranking 85th in points per possession compared to Dayton at 174th. Dayton also faces a disadvantage on the glass, ranking 244th in rebound percentage, while George Mason ranks 49th.
Pick: George Mason -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap George Mason -6)
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Navy Midshipmen
Navy controls games with its defense, ranking 30th in points per possession allowed and slowing the tempo to 319th in possessions per game. Lehigh ranks 352nd in rebound percentage, creating a major disadvantage on the glass against a Navy team that ranks 39th. Lehigh tries to force teams inside, with opponents taking one of the highest percentages of two-point shots in the country, while Navy ranks 61st in home two-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Navy -9.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap Navy -12.5 and Total 130.5)
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Fordham Rams
Fordham has turned games into low-scoring slogs, ranking 354th in possessions per game and 56th in points per possession allowed. Loyola Chicago also plays slowly, ranking 306th in possessions per game. Offensively, both teams have struggled, with Loyola Chicago ranking 303rd in points per possession and Fordham 298th in points per possession at home. Fordham shoots just 27.9% from three-point range at home, which ranks 357th nationally. Loyola Chicago has been solid defensively inside, ranking 59th in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home.
Picks: Loyola Chicago +9.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap Loyola Chicago +7 and Total 133)
7:30 PM Eastern
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Bellarmine Knights
Bellarmine’s defense ranks 363rd in points per possession allowed, but the Knights allow 16.7 fewer points per 100 possessions at home. Offensively, they have been one of the most efficient mid-major teams, ranking seventh nationally in home two-point shooting percentage and 46th in points per possession overall. Lipscomb ranks 332nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home. If the game is close, Bellarmine shoots 83.4% from the free-throw line at home, the second-best home mark in the country.
Pick: Bellarmine +3.5 (Greg’s Handicap Bellarmine -2)
8:00 PM Eastern
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Missouri State Bears
Kennesaw State plays at a fast pace, ranking 15th in possessions per game, but has slowed by more than six possessions per game since the suspension of top scorer and point guard Simeon Cottle. The Owls have leaned more on interior defense, ranking 40th in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home. Missouri State has struggled from three-point range at home, shooting 30.5% (317th nationally), and plays at a slow pace, ranking 251st in possessions per game. Missouri State ranks 224th in points per possession, while Kennesaw State ranks 156th.
Pick: Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 148.5)
NC Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs
Both teams lack efficiency on either end, ranking outside the top 325 in both points scored and allowed per possession. South Carolina State looks to push tempo, ranking 102nd in possessions per game. NC Central’s primary strength is generating turnovers, ranking 58th nationally in turnovers per possession generated and 13th in that category at home.
Pick: NC Central vs. South Carolina State Over 140 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 146.5)
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia plays at a slow pace, ranking 350th in possessions per game, but should find success offensively against a Utah defense that ranks 343rd in turnovers generated per possession and 300th in points per possession allowed. West Virginia ranks 23rd in points per possession allowed but faces a Utah team shooting 37.5% from three-point range away from home (34th nationally). Utah also allows second chances, ranking 249th in defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Utah vs. West Virginia Over 130.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 135.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Marquette has struggled offensively, ranking 220th in points per possession, but creates havoc defensively, ranking 28th in turnovers generated per possession at home. St. John’s has struggled with the little things, ranking 256th in defensive rebound percentage away from home and shooting modestly from all areas, ranking 140th in three-point shooting percentage, 174th in free-throw percentage, and 183rd in two-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Marquette +9.5 (Greg’s Handicap Marquette +6.5)
Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Auburn ranks 30th in points per possession and should operate efficiently against a Mississippi State defense that ranks 358th in turnovers generated per possession and 198th in points per possession allowed. Mississippi State plays at a fast pace, ranking 49th in possessions per game, and should also find success against an Auburn defense that ranks 267th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Auburn vs. Mississippi State Over 153.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 157.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers
Vanderbilt plays at a fast tempo, ranking 33rd in possessions per game, and ranks 13th nationally in points per possession on offense. Missouri ranks 60th in points per possession overall, improving to 45th at home. Defensively, Missouri ranks 168th in points per possession allowed and 302nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.1%. Vanderbilt shoots 37.5% from three-point range away from home (35th nationally), while Missouri ranks 22nd in home two-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Over 153.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 159.5)
St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Seattle Redhawks
Both teams are strong defensively, with St. Mary’s ranking 17th in points per possession allowed and Seattle 26th. Seattle’s offense ranks 310th in points per possession, while St. Mary’s ranks 49th, though that drops to 117th away from home. Seattle holds an edge in generating turnovers, ranking 16th in turnovers per possession generated, while St. Mary’s ranks 274th.
Picks: Seattle +11.5 and Under 137.5 (Greg’s Handicap Seattle +7.5 and Total 133.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
UNLV ranks 315th in home three-point shooting percentage at 30.6% and 155th in points per possession overall. Colorado State ranks fifth nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 39.6%. UNLV ranks 309th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.2% and 356th in opponent free-throw attempts per field goal attempt, while Colorado State ranks 31st in free-throw shooting percentage at 77.1%.
Pick: Colorado State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Colorado State -3)
