College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, February 4.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Villanova Wildcats
These are two of the slowest teams in the country, with Villanova ranking 306th in possessions per game and Seton Hall 292nd. Seton Hall further limits clean possessions by ranking 11th in turnovers per possession and sits eighth nationally in points per possession allowed away from home, despite struggling offensively at just 188th in points per possession. Villanova’s free-throw shooting is a concern both in a tight game and over the course of 40 minutes, as Seton Hall allows the ninth-most free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt in the country and Villanova ranks 235th nationally in free-throw shooting percentage at 70.7%.
Picks: Seton Hall +7.5 and Under 133.5 (Greg’s Handicap Seton Hall +3.5 and Total 129.5)
USC Upstate Spartans vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
USC Upstate ranks 311th overall in points per possession on offense, though that improves to 265th away from home. UNC Asheville ranks 45th nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 36.6%, while USC Upstate is 194th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Both teams should get cleaner possessions in this matchup, which benefits a UNC Asheville offense that ranks 325th in turnovers per possession at home, as USC Upstate is 248th in turnovers per possession generated and UNC Asheville ranks 264th.
Pick: USC Upstate vs. UNC Asheville Over 140.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Central Florida Knights vs. Houston Cougars
Houston continues to own one of the most stifling defenses in the country, ranking fourth in points per possession allowed overall and leading the nation in points per possession allowed at home. This sets up a tempo clash, as Central Florida prefers higher-scoring games, ranking 41st in points per possession and 86th in total possessions per game, while Houston ranks 316th in tempo. Houston has not been an elite shooting team, ranking 135th in three-point shooting percentage and 137th in two-point shooting percentage, and Central Florida matches Houston’s rebounding strength, ranking 18th in offensive rebound percentage compared to Houston’s 16th.
Picks: Central Florida +15.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Central Florida +11.5 and Total 143.5)
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. St. Joseph’s Hawks
George Washington’s offense has not slowed away from home, ranking 20th in points per possession in road and neutral-court games. St. Joseph’s ranks just 236th in points per possession overall, with perimeter shooting being a major issue, as the Hawks are 338th nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 30%, dipping to 28.6% at home. George Washington ranks 45th in three-point shooting percentage away from home at 37.2%, with 46.8% of its field-goal attempts on the road coming from beyond the arc. That helps neutralize St. Joseph’s strength of ranking 58th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. George Washington’s ball-control issues, ranking 200th in turnovers per possession, are mitigated by St. Joseph’s ranking 263rd in turnovers per possession generated on defense.
Pick: George Washington -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap George Washington -7)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Louisville Cardinals
Notre Dame will look to slow the game down and limit possessions, ranking 312th in possessions per game away from home, while Louisville ranks 80th. Notre Dame excels at preventing second chances, ranking fourth nationally in defensive rebound percentage with only 21.5% of opponents’ missed shots becoming offensive rebounds, and ranks 72nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 31.8%. Louisville leads the country in the percentage of field-goal attempts taken from three-point range at 54.4%.
Picks: Notre Dame +17.5 and Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicap Notre Dame +13.5 and Total 151.5)
Southern Mississippi Eagles vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Southern Mississippi ranks last among 365 Division I teams in three-point shooting percentage at 26.8% and will look to attack inside, ranking ninth nationally in the percentage of field-goal attempts that are two-pointers. That approach runs into a Marshall interior defense that ranks 55th in opponent two-point shooting percentage and ninth in blocked-shot percentage. Offensively, Marshall ranks 10th in home three-point shooting percentage at 41.6%, while Southern Mississippi ranks 328th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.9%.
Pick: Marshall -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Marshall -13)
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Arkansas State’s biggest weakness has been turnovers, ranking 341st in turnovers per possession on offense while playing at a fast pace, ranking 33rd in possessions per game. That issue should be minimized here, as Coastal Carolina ranks 364th out of 365 teams in turnovers generated per possession. Arkansas State has also been dominant on the glass, ranking seventh nationally in offensive rebound percentage away from home with 36.9% of missed shots becoming offensive rebounds. If the game is tight late, Arkansas State shoots 78.5% from the free-throw line away from home, ranking 25th in the country.
Picks: Arkansas State -1.5 and Over 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap Arkansas State -4.5 and Total 158.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
This game sets up for a slow tempo, with Louisiana Tech ranking 357th in possessions per game and New Mexico State 281st. Louisiana Tech games feature few made three-point shots, as the Bulldogs rank 360th in three-point shooting percentage at 28% while ranking 102nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage on defense at 32.5%. Free throws could loom large, as Louisiana Tech ranks 355th in free-throw shooting percentage at 65.3%. New Mexico State’s strength of ranking 51st in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home is magnified given that Louisiana Tech ranks 26th nationally in the percentage of home field-goal attempts that are two-pointers.
Picks: New Mexico State +1.5 and Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap New Mexico State -2.5 and Total 128.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Detroit Titans vs. UW Milwaukee Panthers
UW Milwaukee is without much of its starting lineup, as top rebounders Danilo Jovanovic and Fazion Fields have both missed more than three weeks, while leading scorer Seth Hubbard is out for the season. That opens the door for a Detroit team whose main weakness has been shaky three-point shooting away from home at 30.4%. Detroit should find success inside against a UW Milwaukee defense that ranks 315th in opponent two-point shooting percentage at home. Detroit has also done a strong job creating second chances, ranking 50th in offensive rebound percentage with 33.8% of missed shots becoming offensive rebounds.
Picks: Detroit +6.5 and Under 159.5 (Greg’s Handicap Detroit +2.5 and Total 154.5)
North Texas Mean Green vs. Rice Owls
Neither team has executed well offensively, with Rice ranking 246th in points per possession and North Texas 353rd in points per possession away from home, having scored more than 67 points in a road or neutral-site game just once this season. North Texas has dominated defensively on the road, ranking 22nd in points per possession allowed away from home. The Mean Green also limit possessions, ranking 298th in possessions per game, and rank fourth in turnovers per possession generated on defense away from home.
Pick: North Texas vs. Rice Under 134 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 128)
10:00 PM Eastern
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Portland Pilots
The return of forward and leading scorer Graham Ike boosts a Gonzaga offense that already ranks fifth nationally in points per possession away from home. Gonzaga faces a Portland defense that ranks 265th in points per possession allowed and 223rd in opponent two-point shooting percentage, a concern given that Gonzaga ranks 15th nationally in the percentage of field-goal attempts that are two-pointers. Gonzaga also continues to push the pace, ranking 44th in possessions per game.
Pick: Gonzaga vs. Portland Over 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 157.5)
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. San Francisco Dons
San Francisco has slowed its games down, ranking 258th in possessions per game, while Loyola Marymount plays at a moderate pace, ranking 133rd. Loyola Marymount has been stout defensively away from home, ranking 80th in points per possession allowed and 32nd in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Second chances should be limited, as San Francisco ranks 26th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing just 24.2% of missed shots to become offensive rebounds. Loyola Marymount also ranks 42nd in fewest free-throw attempts allowed per opponent field-goal attempt away from home.
Pick: Loyola Marymount vs. San Francisco Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 138)
San Diego Toreros vs. St. Mary’s Gaels
St. Mary’s is back to playing a slow, defense-oriented style, ranking 303rd in possessions per game and 27th in points per possession allowed. San Diego has increased its tempo, ranking 90th in possessions per game, but remains inefficient offensively at 233rd in points per possession. Scoring chances are limited by San Diego ranking 255th in offensive rebound percentage, while defensively the Toreros rank 26th in turnovers per possession generated.
Pick: San Diego vs. St. Mary’s Under 148 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos
These are two of the best teams in the country at generating turnovers, with Utah State leading the nation in turnovers per possession generated away from home and New Mexico ranking 27th at home. That should limit possessions in what projects as a mid-tempo game, with Utah State ranking 213th and New Mexico 127th in possessions per game. Utah State owns the more efficient offense, ranking 13th in points per possession away from home, while New Mexico ranks 70th overall. Utah State also has the edge inside, ranking ninth in two-point shooting percentage compared to New Mexico’s 89th.
Picks: Utah State +2.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap Utah State -1 and Total 147)
