College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, January 14.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Chattanooga Mocs vs. Wofford Terriers
Chattanooga is playing at a slow tempo, ranking 298th in possessions per game, while Wofford ranks 200th. Chattanooga is 362nd in road offensive rebound percentage with only 17.3% of their missed shots becoming offensive rebounds, while Wofford is 260th in 2-point shooting and 330th in 3-point shooting percentage at home at 29.7%, but they have been solid with their interior defense at home, ranking 81st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Chattanooga vs. Wofford Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Boston U Terriers
Boston U is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 358th in possessions per game at home, and the game should have even fewer possessions given Lehigh’s inability to take care of the ball, ranking 286th in turnovers per possession and 305th in points per possession overall. Boston U games involve lots of made 3-point shots, ranking 10th in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.5% while also ranking 354th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, but they will be forced inside by a Lehigh team that makes opponents beat them inside, with 71.9% of opponent field goal attempts coming from 2-point range, the third-highest rate in the nation.
Pick: Lehigh vs. Boston U Under 147 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141.5)
6:30 PM Eastern
High Point Panthers vs. Winthrop Eagles
Winthrop is solid offensively, ranking 80th in points per possession, but they face one of the most complete mid-majors in the country in High Point, who rank 17th in points per possession on offense and 12th in turnovers forced per possession on defense. Winthrop does not take the ball away at the same rate, ranking 309th in turnovers per possession generated on defense at home, and they are 266th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: High Point PK (Greg’s Handicap High Point -8)
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue leads the nation in points per possession on offense, but they will not have many possessions to rack up points as they rank 281st in possessions per game and Iowa is even slower at 357th. Iowa games involve tons of dead possessions with the team sixth in the nation in turnovers per possession generated on defense, and the Iowa offense, which ranks 20th overall in points per possession, takes a massive nosedive away from home, averaging 31.2 points per 100 possessions fewer on the road.
Picks: Purdue -9.5 and Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap Purdue -12 and Total 138)
7:00 PM Eastern
Auburn Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers
Auburn has been one of the better offensive teams in the country, ranking 29th in points per possession, but they have been lackluster defensively, ranking 220th in points per possession allowed and 293rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage away from home. Missouri ranks 30th in points per possession at home, and both teams should get plenty of second chances to score, with Missouri grabbing 39.1% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds at home, ranking 26th nationally, while Auburn ranks 14th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Auburn vs. Missouri Over 154.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 162)
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. St. Joseph’s Hawks
St. Bonaventure has a big edge around the perimeter, ranking 29th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.3%, which improves to 37.6% away from home, while St. Joseph’s ranks 359th at 27.2%. While the Bonnies’ defense is not what it has been in past seasons, ranking 204th in points per possession allowed, it has been significantly better away from home, ranking 67th in points per possession allowed and 59th in turnovers per possession, while St. Joseph’s does not put teams under duress, ranking 263rd in turnovers per possession forced on defense.
Picks: St. Bonaventure -1.5 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap St. Bonaventure -6.5 and Total 144.4)
7:30 PM Eastern
UAB Blazers vs. Tulane Green Wave
Tulane is at a major disadvantage on the glass, ranking 346th in offensive rebound percentage, while UAB ranks 126th. UAB is 347th in 3-point shooting percentage at 28.6%, but they do not rely on the 3-point shot, with only 29% of their field goal attempts coming from deep, the 10th-lowest rate in the nation. Tulane takes 44.1% of their shots from 3-point range and shoots just 28% from deep at home, ranking 345th nationally, while also ranking 213th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at home.
Picks: UAB -2.5 and Over 149 (Greg’s Handicap UAB -6.5 and Total 154.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Temple Owls vs. Memphis Tigers
Temple is not pushing tempo, ranking 311th in possessions per game, but their games often feature plenty of scoring as they rank seventh in fewest turnovers per possession on offense and 21st in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. Temple does not create much defensive discomfort, ranking 300th in turnovers per possession forced, which helps a Memphis offense whose biggest weakness is turnovers, ranking 338th in turnovers per possession, as they look to push pace, ranking 70th in possessions per game.
Pick: Temple vs. Memphis Over 144 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 153)
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Wyoming Cowboys
San Diego State’s tempo metrics are skewed by multiple overtime games, making them closer to an average-paced team, and they face a Wyoming defense that may prevent them from continuing to shoot 37.2% from 3-point range, as Wyoming limits teams to 30.6% from deep at home. The game should feature plenty of dead possessions, with San Diego State ranking 22nd in turnovers forced per possession and Wyoming 99th.
Picks: Wyoming +2.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Wyoming -2 and Total 144)
Fordham Rams vs. Saint Louis Billikens
Fordham is slowing games down to a crawl, ranking 363rd in possessions per game, and has been solid defensively, ranking 70th in points per possession allowed and 17th in rebound percentage. Saint Louis has also stepped up defensively, ranking 13th in points per possession allowed, but they continue to struggle with turnovers, ranking 183rd in turnovers per possession on offense.
Picks: Fordham +19.5 and Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap Fordham +16.5 and Total 144.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
UCLA Bruins vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Neither team is pushing tempo, with UCLA ranking 245th in possessions per game and Penn State 269th, and both teams do a good job of generating turnovers. Penn State ranks 48th in turnovers per possession forced at home, while UCLA ranks 34th overall, and neither team generates many second chances, with Penn State ranking 222nd in offensive rebound percentage and UCLA 184th. UCLA is also 41st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30%.
Pick: UCLA vs. Penn State Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 144.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has struggled to generate clean possessions, ranking 310th in turnovers per possession at home while playing at a slow pace of 299th in possessions per game. They face a Loyola Marymount defense that ranks 85th in points per possession allowed and 28th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which should limit an Oregon State team that ranks 309th in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Loyola Marymount -1.5 and Under 141.5 (Greg’s Handicap Loyola Marymount -5.5 and Total 135.5)
Pacific Tigers vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Santa Clara has done an excellent job generating second chances, ranking third nationally in home offensive rebound percentage, but they face a Pacific team that ranks ninth in defensive rebound percentage and does a great job limiting extra possessions. Pacific has been sloppy offensively, ranking 336th in turnovers per possession, while Santa Clara ranks 177th, and Pacific is 39th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage away from home.
Picks: Pacific +12.5 and Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap Pacific +7.5 and Total 147.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
TCU Horned Frogs vs. BYU Cougars
Both defenses have been strong this season, with BYU ranking 17th in points per possession allowed and TCU 26th, which improves to 24th in road and neutral games thanks largely to ranking 14th in turnovers forced per possession away from home. BYU’s offense ranks 22nd in points per possession, but they may not get the second chances they are accustomed to, as TCU ranks 13th in defensive rebound percentage away from home.
Picks: TCU +12.5 and Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap TCU +8.5 and Total 150.5)
