College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, January 21.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Samford Bulldogs vs. Wofford Terriers
Neither offense has been as explosive as expected, with Samford ranking 172nd in points per possession and Wofford 100th. Wofford has also struggled to shoot at home, ranking 329th in 3-point shooting percentage at 29.7%. There should not be many second-chance opportunities, as both teams rank 342nd in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Samford vs. Wofford Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 142.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Rhode Island Rams vs. Richmond Spiders
Rhode Island games feature plenty of turnovers, as the Rams rank 314th in turnovers per possession on offense and 11th in turnovers forced on defense. Richmond takes care of the ball, ranking 35th in fewest turnovers per possession, and shoots it well from deep, ranking 13th in 3-point shooting percentage. That sets up well against a Rhode Island defense that ranks 317th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 38.3%.
Pick: Richmond -2 (Greg’s Handicap Richmond -7)
Murray State Racers vs. Drake Bulldogs
This game features a major tempo clash, with Murray State ranking 10th in possessions per game on the road or at neutral sites while Drake ranks 278th in possessions per game at home. Drake will be forced inside, as Murray State leads the nation in the lowest percentage of opponent field goal attempts coming from 3-point range, while Drake ranks just 207th in 2-point shooting percentage. Murray State also shoots it well from deep, ranking 31st in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.3%, while Drake is 300th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home.
Picks: Murray State -4.5 and Under 159.5 (Greg’s Handicap Murray State -6 and Total 152)
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose
Charleston Southern has done a strong job of limiting clean looks, ranking 35th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home and 15th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Presbyterian wants to slow games down, ranking 355th in possessions per game, but has not made the most of those possessions, ranking 265th in points per possession and 317th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Picks: Charleston Southern -1.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Charleston Southern -7.5 and Total 141.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats
Kennesaw State was the most negatively impacted team in last week’s gambling scandal, as top scorer Simeon Cottle (20.2 points and 3.8 assists per game) was implicated, leaving a major hole for a team that ranks fourth nationally in possessions per game and 237th in turnovers per possession. They now face a Sam Houston State team that can match their strength on the offensive glass, with Kennesaw State ranking 25th and Sam Houston State 44th in offensive rebound percentage. Sam Houston State also shoots it well from deep, ranking 52nd in 3-point shooting percentage, while Kennesaw State ranks 212th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Sam Houston State -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap Sam Houston State -9.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Tarleton State Texans vs. UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Arlington is a team of extremes, leading the nation in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 25.6%, but ranking 357th in turnovers per possession on offense. That plays into the hands of a Tarleton State defense that leads the country in turnovers forced per possession. Tarleton State also minimizes UT Arlington’s biggest strength by taking just 25.2% of its shots from 3-point range, the second-lowest rate in the nation.
Picks: Tarleton State +3.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap Tarleton State -1 and Total 141)
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, ranking fifth in points per possession, and faces a Memphis team that has struggled to keep possessions clean, ranking 334th in turnovers per possession. Tulsa has also been far better at preventing second-chance opportunities, ranking 58th in defensive rebound percentage, while Memphis ranks 330th.
Pick: Tulsa -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap Tulsa -9)
UT San Antonio Roadrunners vs. North Texas Mean Green
This season has been a disaster for UT San Antonio, ranking 361st in points per possession on offense and 326th in points per possession allowed on defense. North Texas continues to play low-possession, defense-oriented games, ranking 316th in possessions per game and 36th in points per possession allowed, though the offense has struggled, ranking 309th in 2-point shooting percentage and 314th in 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: UT San Antonio vs. North Texas Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 131.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State has been one of the few teams in the country scoring fewer points per possession at home than away from home, shooting just 27.7% from 3-point range at home compared to 38.5% on the road or at neutral sites. The Sun Devils rank 230th in points per possession at home after ranking 39th away from home. They face a West Virginia team that ranks 21st in points per possession allowed and 351st in total possessions per game.
Picks: West Virginia +1.5 and Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap West Virginia -1 and Total 143)
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Syracuse Orange
Both teams are getting key contributors back from injury. Syracuse ranks 159th in points per possession this season but has improved offensively since the return of leading scorer Donnie Freeman. Virginia Tech ranks 90th in points per possession allowed on defense and 248th in defensive rebound percentage, but should improve with the return of rebounding leader Toibu Lawal. Syracuse plays at a slower pace, ranking 187th in possessions per game, and ranks 24th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 144)
Washington Huskies vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Washington gets double-figure scorer Wesley Yates back but loses Desmond Claude, and now faces a Nebraska team that dares opponents to shoot from deep, with teams taking 50.1% of their shots from 3-point range, the sixth-highest rate in the nation. Washington ranks 312th in 3-point shooting percentage at 30.7%. Second-chance opportunities should be limited, with Washington ranking 65th in defensive rebound percentage away from home and Nebraska ranking 36th overall.
Pick: Washington vs. Nebraska Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 144.5)
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds
This game profiles as a grind, with Northern Iowa ranking 359th in possessions per game and second in fewest points per possession allowed away from home. Illinois State ranks fourth nationally in fewest points per possession allowed at home and will not have to worry about second chances, as Northern Iowa ranks 362nd in offensive rebound percentage while Illinois State ranks 16th in defensive rebound percentage. Northern Iowa also ranks second in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26.1%.
Picks: Northern Iowa +7 and Under 131.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Iowa +3.5 and Total 125.5)
Pepperdine Waves vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Pepperdine does not hold an edge in any major metric, ranking 228th in points per possession allowed and 332nd in points per possession on offense. Gonzaga has actually been more efficient defensively than offensively this season, ranking ninth in points per possession on offense and fourth in points per possession allowed on defense, which improves to best in the country at home. Gonzaga continues to push tempo, ranking 41st in possessions per game and has scored at least 80 points in every home game this season.
Picks: Gonzaga -28.5 and Over 146 (Greg’s Handicap Gonzaga -33.5 and Total 153.5)
