College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, January 28.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Baylor Bears vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Baylor has disappointed in Big 12 play, but still has the superior offense to Cincinnati, ranking 41st in points per possession overall while Cincinnati sits 266th. While Cincinnati owns the stronger defense at 13th in points per possession allowed compared to Baylor’s 223rd, this profiles as a tight game where Cincinnati is difficult to trust at the free-throw line, shooting just 65.7% (350th). Baylor is fourth in the country in offensive rebound percentage away from home, pulling in 37.8% of their missed shots.
Pick: Baylor +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap Baylor +1.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles
California is capable of neutralizing Florida State’s strengths. Florida State ranks 25th in turnovers forced per possession, but California is 39th in fewest turnovers per possession offensively. California also ranks 17th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 29.5%, while Florida State takes 52.4% of its field goal attempts from three at home. California shoots 39.5% from three away from home (16th), while Florida State ranks just 173rd in three-point shooting percentage.
Picks: California +1.5 and Over 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap California -3.5 and Total 157.5)
Butler Bulldogs vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Both teams play fast, with St. John’s ranking 28th and Butler 39th in possessions per game. However, St. John’s has kept scoring down defensively, ranking 12th nationally in points per possession allowed and 32nd in turnovers forced per possession. Offensively, St. John’s is just 153rd in two-point shooting percentage and is shooting 31.4% from three at home, while Butler is shooting 30.8% from three in road or neutral settings.
Pick: Butler vs. St. John’s Under 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 157.5)
American Eagles vs. Loyola MD Greyhounds
American has slowed games down, ranking 284th in possessions per game, while Loyola MD also avoids an aggressive tempo at 194th. American further limits clean possessions by ranking 62nd in turnovers per possession. Loyola MD has struggled offensively at home, ranking 280th in points per possession, and neither team generates many second chances, with Loyola MD ranking 242nd and American 311th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: American vs. Loyola MD Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 144)
IU Indianapolis Jaguars vs. Robert Morris Colonials
IU Indianapolis sells out defensively to generate turnovers, ranking 42nd in turnovers forced per possession, but that comes at the cost of ranking 358th in defensive rebound percentage and 350th in points per possession allowed. Robert Morris ranks 11th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 36.8% of missed shots, and should have plenty of scoring chances with IU Indianapolis playing at the fifth-fastest tempo in the country.
Picks: Robert Morris -9.5 and Over 159 (Greg’s Handicap Robert Morris -14.5 and Total 170.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Denver Pioneers vs. Kansas City Kangaroos
Denver has struggled defensively all season, ranking 362nd in points per possession allowed, but is not an uptempo team, ranking 148th in possessions per game. Kansas City’s offense has been stuck in neutral, ranking 346th in points per possession at home and 361st in turnovers per possession. Neither team excels at creating second chances, with Denver ranking 207th and Kansas City 240th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Denver vs. Kansas City Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 159)
Belmont Bruins vs. Valparaiso Beacons
Belmont looks to push pace, ranking 111th in possessions per game, and should see its unusual home-road defensive split normalize, allowing 8.7 fewer points per 100 possessions away from home. Offensively, Belmont ranks third nationally in three-point shooting percentage away from home at 42.2%. Valparaiso takes care of the ball at home, ranking 80th in fewest turnovers per possession, and shoots 34.7% from three at home compared to 28.6% away.
Picks: Belmont -4.5 and Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Belmont -8 and Total 150)
Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Missouri State Bears
Sam Houston State ranks 40th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%, while Missouri State has struggled from deep, ranking 306th overall and just 29.4% at home. Sam Houston State also ranks 29th in offensive rebound percentage away from home, grabbing 33.8% of missed shots. Defensively, Sam Houston State holds an edge, ranking 155th in points per possession allowed compared to Missouri State’s 181st.
Pick: Sam Houston State +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap Sam Houston State -4.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Minnesota owns one of the most extreme home-road defensive splits in the country, ranking 21st in points per possession allowed at home but 353rd away from home. Wisconsin does the little things well, ranking 18th in defensive rebound percentage and limiting opponents to 23.8% offensive rebounds. Offensively, Wisconsin ranks 46th in points per possession, driven by ranking 14th in fewest turnovers per possession and 25th in free-throw shooting at 77.4%.
Pick: Wisconsin -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Wisconsin -13.5)
Stanford Cardinal vs. Miami Hurricanes
Miami looks to push pace at home, ranking 58th in possessions per game, and faces a Stanford defense ranked 178th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 190th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Miami ranks 24th in points per possession at home, while Stanford has been more efficient offensively away from home, ranking 82nd compared to 138th overall.
Pick: Stanford vs. Miami Over 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 152.5)
Houston Cougars vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Despite both teams allowing 90-plus points in their last games, both remain elite defensively. TCU ranks 31st and Houston fourth in points per possession allowed. Houston continues to play at a slow pace, ranking 312th in possessions per game, and ranks fifth nationally in turnovers generated per possession. TCU also forces turnovers at a high rate, ranking 35th.
Pick: Houston vs. TCU Under 137.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 132)
Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Neither team shoots well from three, with South Carolina ranking 256th and Florida 348th at 28.5%. South Carolina takes better care of the ball, ranking 50th in turnovers per possession compared to Florida’s 176th, and ranks 33rd in two-point shooting percentage. Florida offsets that with elite offensive rebounding, leading the country by grabbing 43.9% of missed shots.
Picks: South Carolina +10.5 and Over 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Carolina +6.5 and Total 154.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Portland Pilots vs. Pacific Tigers
Both teams struggle with turnovers, with Portland ranking 315th and Pacific 348th in turnovers per possession. Pacific excels on the defensive glass at home, ranking fourth nationally and allowing opponents to rebound just 17.7% of missed shots. Portland has also been without second-leading scorer Timo George since early 2026, hurting an offense that already ranks 362nd in three-point shooting percentage away from home at 25%.
Pick: Pacific -7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Pacific -11.5)
Oregon State Beavers vs. Loyola Marymount Lions
Loyola Marymount’s strength is interior defense, ranking 77th in points per possession allowed and 17th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 298th in possessions per game, and ranks 318th in offensive rebound percentage. The Beavers’ perimeter offense drops significantly on the road, shooting 31.1% from three compared to 35.9% at home, and they rank 239th in turnovers per possession.
Picks: Loyola Marymount -6 and Under 141 (Greg’s Handicap Loyola Marymount -10.5 and Total 136.5)
