College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, January 7.
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6:00 PM Eastern
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs. Wofford Terriers
Neither team has executed well offensively, with UNC Greensboro ranking 188th in points per possession overall while Wofford ranks 272nd in points per possession at home. Neither team plays at a fast tempo, as Wofford ranks 220th in possessions per game and UNC Greensboro 193rd. UNC Greensboro has slowed things down even more recently, playing at a rate of more than four fewer possessions per game over its past four Division I games compared to its first nine contests.
Pick: UNC Greensboro vs. Wofford Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 145.5)
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Army Black Knights
Loyola Maryland has been effective inside, ranking 90th in road 2-point shooting percentage. Army, meanwhile, relies heavily on the 3-point shot, with 56.7% of its home field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc, the second-highest rate in the country. However, the Black Knights are just 208th in 3-point shooting percentage at 32.9% and rank 255th in points per possession overall, which drops to 319th at home.
Picks: Loyola Maryland +4.5 and Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Loyola Maryland +1.5, Total 143.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. James Madison Dukes
These teams are nearly identical offensively, with Marshall ranking 134th in points per possession and James Madison 126th. Both defenses feature strong rim protection, as Marshall ranks 23rd in blocked shot percentage on defense and James Madison 38th. That should particularly impact a Marshall offense that ranks 30th in road 2-point shooting percentage, while James Madison plays at a very slow pace at home, ranking 335th in possessions per game.
Pick: Marshall vs. James Madison Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 149.5)
George Mason Patriots vs. Fordham Rams
Defense is the calling card for both teams, with Fordham ranking 53rd and George Mason 54th in points per possession allowed. George Mason holds a significant shooting edge, ranking 12th in 3-point shooting percentage in road and neutral court games at 41.2%, while Fordham ranks 331st nationally at 29%. Tempo should be slow, as Fordham ranks 360th in possessions per game and George Mason 307th.
Picks: George Mason -5.5 and Under 134.5 (Greg’s Handicap: George Mason -8.5, Total 128.5)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State ranks 120th in points per possession overall on offense, but that drops to 186th at home. Oklahoma ranks 11th in points per possession overall, yet scores 20.8 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than in road or neutral court games. Defensively, Oklahoma ranks 25th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which is important against a Mississippi State team ranking just 211th in 3-point shooting percentage at 32.9%. Oklahoma also plays at a slower tempo, ranking 195th in possessions per game.
Pick: Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Under 159.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 153.5)
Missouri State Bears vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Missouri State prefers to slow games down, ranking 318th in possessions per game, while Kennesaw State plays at the opposite extreme, ranking third nationally. Kennesaw State creates plenty of second chances, ranking 17th in offensive rebound percentage with 37.3% of missed shots rebounded. Missouri State has struggled defending the perimeter away from home, ranking 322nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 39%. Both teams also excel at getting to the free throw line, with Missouri State ranking 10th and Kennesaw State 20th in free throws attempted per possession at home.
Picks: Kennesaw State -4.5 and Over 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Kennesaw State -9.5, Total 151.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
Rice Owls vs. Wichita State Shockers
Rice has struggled offensively away from home, ranking 320th in points per possession in road and neutral court games. Wichita State plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 283rd in possessions per game, and has dominated the glass at home, ranking 25th in rebound percentage while allowing opponents to grab just 22.3% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.
Pick: Rice vs. Wichita State Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 138)
Creighton Blue Jays vs. Villanova Wildcats
Creighton has taken a step back offensively this season, ranking 99th in points per possession overall and falling to 228th away from home. Villanova’s perimeter defense has been a major issue, ranking 269th nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 344th at home, where opponents are shooting 40.9% from deep. Creighton also limits trips to the free throw line, ranking third nationally in fewest free throws allowed per play.
Pick: Creighton +6.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Creighton +3.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Charlotte 49ers vs. UT San Antonio Roadrunners
UT San Antonio ranks fourth-worst in Division I in points per possession at home, and Charlotte’s 255th-ranked defense should help a bit. Charlotte should generate cleaner looks offensively, ranking 75th in fewest turnovers per possession away from home, while UTSA ranks 285th in turnovers forced on defense and 336th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound 35.3% of missed shots. Charlotte also holds a major shooting edge, ranking 89th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.7% compared to UTSA’s 353rd-ranked 27.4%.
Picks: Charlotte -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Charlotte -6.5)
Washington Huskies vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Washington has struggled from the perimeter, ranking 253rd nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.9%, which drops to 29.7% away from home. Without double-figure scorer Wesley Yates, the Huskies have slowed their tempo by more than three possessions per game over their past three contests. Purdue also plays slowly, ranking 286th in possessions per game, but has been elite offensively, ranking ninth in 3-point shooting percentage and leading the nation in points per possession. The Boilermakers are also solid defensively, ranking 46th in points per possession allowed and eighth in rebound percentage.
Picks: Purdue -15.5 and Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Purdue -18.5, Total 144.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. BYU Cougars
BYU’s defense has actually been more efficient than its offense, ranking 18th in points per possession allowed compared to 28th offensively. Both teams play at a faster-than-average pace, though nothing extreme, with Arizona State ranking 98th and BYU 107th in possessions per game. Arizona State’s outside shooting has traveled well, ranking 24th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 39.7%.
Picks: Arizona State +18.5 and Under 168.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Arizona State +13.5, Total 163.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Boise State Broncos
Boise State could be in a potential hangover spot after a triple-overtime loss to San Diego State on Saturday, a game that inflated their pace numbers due to the extra 15 minutes of play. Entering the weekend, Boise State ranked 255th in possessions per game, while Grand Canyon ranks 238th. Neither team allows many second chances, as Boise State ranks fifth nationally in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound just 20.9% of missed shots, while Grand Canyon ranks 47th. Both defenses have also been strong in their respective venues, with Grand Canyon ranking 33rd in points per possession allowed away from home and Boise State 32nd at home.
Picks: Grand Canyon +8.5 and Under 137.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Grand Canyon +6, Total 136)
