College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Wednesday, March 4.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Bellarmine Knights vs. Jacksonville Dolphins
Bellarmine has been atrocious on defense, ranking 365th out of 365 Division I teams in points per possession allowed, but they are also quite efficient on offense, ranking 30th in points per possession. They are seventh in the nation in two-point shooting percentage and 19th in three-point shooting at 38.1%. Jacksonville has struggled on both ends, ranking 313th in points per possession allowed and 237th in points per possession on offense, while shooting just 31.3% from three-point range (313th). If the game is close, Bellarmine holds a major edge at the free throw line, ranking eighth nationally at 78.8%.
Pick: Bellarmine -1 (Greg’s Handicap Bellarmine -5)
6:30 PM Eastern
Fordham Rams vs. La Salle Explorers
Neither team has found much offensive success this season, with Fordham ranking 266th in points per possession and La Salle 340th. La Salle’s lone real strength is offensive rebounding, ranking 117th in offensive rebound percentage, but they face a Fordham front line that ranks 22nd in defensive rebound percentage, allowing just 24% of missed shots to be rebounded offensively. Fordham is also 52nd in points per possession allowed in what should be a slow-paced game, as Fordham ranks 352nd in total possessions per game and La Salle 301st.
Pick: Fordham vs. La Salle Under 133.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 126.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Duquesne Dukes vs. Rhode Island Rams
Duquesne has struggled with turnovers, ranking 250th in turnovers per possession on offense, while Rhode Island ranks 10th in turnovers forced on defense and 62nd in points per possession allowed overall. Duquesne ranks 177th in points per possession allowed. Both teams have had issues defending the three-point line, with Duquesne allowing 35.1% (241st) and Rhode Island 35.4% (259th), though that improves to 31.9% for Rhode Island at home.
Pick: Rhode Island -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Rhode Island -5)
Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs
SMU has been tremendous offensively, ranking 26th in points per possession at home, but ranks 173rd in points per possession allowed. Miami ranks 33rd in points per possession allowed overall but is 296th in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 37.2%. SMU ranks 22nd in three-point shooting at 37.3%, which jumps to 39.6% at home. Miami’s 67.6% free throw shooting (329th) looms large in a tight contest.
Picks: SMU -1.5 and Over 160.5 (Greg’s Handicap SMU -6.5 and Total 164.5)
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Washington Revolutionaries
St. Bonaventure ranks 262nd in points per possession allowed, improving to 158th away from home, and plays at a slow tempo (227th in possessions per game). George Washington ranks 138th in points per possession allowed overall and 52nd away from home, while ranking 47th in turnovers per possession at home. Offensively, George Washington shoots 34.1% from three-point range at home compared to 37% away.
Pick: St. Bonaventure vs. George Washington Under 160 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 156.5)
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Oakland Grizzlies
Northern Kentucky ranks 45th in turnovers forced but allows open looks when they fail to generate a takeaway, ranking 324th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (36.5%) and 259th in opponent two-point shooting percentage. Oakland ranks 48th in fewest turnovers per possession and 62nd in points per possession at home. Northern Kentucky ranks 102nd in points per possession but shoots just 67.9% from the free throw line away from home, while Oakland shoots 76.5% at home.
Picks: Oakland -1.5 and Over 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap Oakland -5.5 and Total 163.5)
UW Milwaukee Panthers vs. Detroit Titans
UW Milwaukee has dealt with injuries to top scorers Seth Hubbard and Danilo Jovanovich, and the team ranks 352nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 39.4% and 339th in points per possession allowed away from home. Detroit led the Horizon League in conference three-point shooting at 40.1% and ranks 79th in offensive rebound percentage, rebounding 32% of their misses.
Pick: Detroit -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap Detroit -5.5)
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. Mercyhurst Lakers
Both teams play at an extremely slow pace, with Fairleigh Dickinson ranking 351st and Mercyhurst 330th in possessions per game. Mercyhurst ranks 103rd in points per possession allowed and 57th in turnovers per possession, while Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 313th in points per possession and 334th in three-point shooting percentage at 30.5%.
Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Mercyhurst Under 134.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 128)
7:30 PM Eastern
Gardner-Webb Bulldogs vs. USC Upstate Spartans
Gardner-Webb ranks 360th in points per possession on offense and 363rd in points per possession allowed. USC Upstate ranks 314th in points per possession on offense but is 160th in points per possession allowed on defense. Gardner-Webb allows opponents to rebound 36.2% of missed shots as offensive rebounds, ranking 358th nationally.
Pick: USC Upstate -9.5 (Greg’s Handicap USC Upstate -13)
North Florida Osprey vs. West Georgia Wolves
West Georgia shoots 34.7% from three-point range away from home (105th), while North Florida shoots 36.2% away (54th). North Florida ranks 361st in opponent offensive rebound percentage away from home (39.1%) and 364th in points per possession allowed overall while playing at a fast pace (38th in possessions per game). West Georgia also plays fast, ranking 105th in possessions per game.
Picks: West Georgia -3.5 and Over 158 (Greg’s Handicap West Georgia -6.5 and Total 163.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Villanova Wildcats vs. DePaul Blue Demons
DePaul ranks 248th in points per possession, while Villanova ranks 69th and is also 69th in turnovers per possession on offense compared to 252nd for DePaul. Villanova should find open looks against a DePaul defense that ranks 298th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 35.9%.
Pick: Villanova -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap Villanova -7.5)
Rice Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green
Rice ranks 345th in two-point shooting percentage and 257th in points per possession. North Texas ranks 297th in points per possession and 354th in three-point shooting percentage at 29.1% but ranks 39th in points per possession allowed, including 37th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (31.1%) and ninth in turnovers forced. Rice ranks 258th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Rice vs. North Texas Under 140.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 132.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Stanford Cardinal vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame continues to deal with injuries to leading scorers Markus Burton and Jalen Harleson, leading to offensive struggles, ranking 301st in turnovers per possession at home. Stanford ranks 84th in turnovers per possession and 112th in points per possession allowed while ranking 122nd in points per possession on offense. Notre Dame ranks 19th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound just 23.8% of missed shots. The first meeting between these teams ended in a 47-40 Notre Dame win.
Picks: Stanford +1.5 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stanford -1.5 and Total 137.5)
