With this final piece covering the Power 5 conferences in college basketball, I wrap up my three-part series covering some of the key betting trends available for each of the conference tournaments. The Power 5 conference tourneys will commence on Tuesday, March 10th or later. These are the big ones, the tournaments that grab the biggest audiences, and hence the most attention from bettors. These leagues also have the most teams in the running for the NCAA tournament top seeds, as well as most teams on the bubble, so the stakes are always heightened.

Bettors need to understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, heading into the 2026 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 394-121 SU and 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game. 

Besides that, in search of other prominent systems for readers to take advantage of, I was able to uncover two incredible systems that have developed in recent years of conference tournament action regarding extreme scoring totals from the prior game’s win. They read as follows: 

1.  Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!

2. Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020! 

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2026 tournaments. 

In this piece, the power conference leagues I cover are:

ACC – March 10
BIG 12 – March 10
BIG EAST – March 11
BIG TEN – March 10
SEC – March 11

ACC

·   Big favorites of 5.5 points or more have been nearly automatic in the ACC tournament of late, 61-8 SU and 40-28-1 ATS (58.8%) since 2015.

·   ACC teams off a bye and playing as favorites of 4 points or more against teams that have already played in the tournament are 43-4 SU and 28-18-1 ATS (60.9%) since 2015.

·   ACC opening round favorites have gone 23-4 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) since 2016.

·   ACC second round favorites are on a 25-11 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) surge over the last nine tournaments, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS last year.

·   ACC semifinal underdogs are 14-21 SU but 25-7-3 ATS (78.1%) since 2007, and 12-2-1 ATS since 2017. Both won ATS again a year ago.

·   Lower-totaled ACC tournament contests, or those 140 or less, have shown a penchant for going Over, 35-20 (63.6%) since 2016.

BIG 12

·  Teams off an earlier round bye in the Big 12 tournament have gone 23-4 SU & 17-10 ATS (63%) since 2016.

·  Mid-level favorites of -4 to -9.5 in the Big 12 bracket have gone 33-13 SU but just 20-26 ATS (43.5%) since 2015.

·  Underdogs in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney are on a 10-11 SU and 17-4 ATS (80.9%) surge.

·  Big 12 semifinal favorites are on a 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2013.

· Totals of 147 or higher have gone 15-9 (62.5%) Under over the last 12 years in the Big 12 tournament, but they were 4-0 Over in 2025.

· The last three Big 12 title games have gone Under the total, with the losing teams scoring a paltry 53.7PPG.

· Teams winning by single-digits in a Big 12 tourney game have gone just 12-32 SU and 16-28 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up tourney contest since 2016.

BIG EAST

·  Only three of the last 25 Big East quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a round 1 bye have lost to a team that played, going 16-9 ATS (64%).

·  Big East tourney favorites in the -5 to -9.5 range have been vulnerable, 25-13 SU but 13-25 ATS (34.2%) over the last 12 seasons, although they did go 2-0 SU and ATS last year.

· The L9 Big East tourney first-round games have gone Under the total (100%).

·  Big East quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on a 13-3 ATS (81.3%) run since 2006. Overall, for the tournament, DD favorites are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge.

· Big East semifinal dogs have been a very profitable play of late, 9-11 SU but 15-5 ATS (75%) since 2015.

· Twelve of the last 15 Big East championship games have gone Under the total (80%).

· Teams that win a Big East tourney game comfortably (by 8 points or more) haven’t followed up that performance with another good one, going 17-25 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) in the next round.

BIG TEN

·  Against public perception, games with totals of 130 or less are on a 17-9-1 Over (65.4%) run in the Big Ten tournament. There was only one such game last year.

·  Heavy favorites of -6.5 points or more are on a 23-1 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) run in the Big Ten tournament.

·  Teams that are off a bye in the Big Ten tournament are 25-14 SU but 13-28-2 ATS (31.7%) versus teams that already played since 2018. This makes it one of the few leagues where having a bye hasn’t proven all that beneficial.

· The Big Ten tournament semifinals are 12-4 Over the total (75%) since 2017, including Overs in the last eight.

· Big Ten tourney conference title game favorites are currently on a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS (25%) skid, including Wisconsin’s (-4.5) 59-53 loss to Michigan in 2025.

SEC

·  Lines of 7 points or more should be noted for two reasons in the SEC tourney. First off, favorites in these games are on a 37-8 SU and 27-16-2 ATS (62.8%) run since 2014, and second, these games have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.

· Of the last 31 SEC tourney games expected to be highly competitive (favorites of -3 or less), 19 have gone Over the total (61.3%).

· The bye has proven important in the SEC tournament of late, as rested teams are on a 38-14 SU and 30-22 ATS (57.7%) run versus teams that have already played.·  SEC title game favorites are on an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) run since 2015.

View Steve Makinen’s Early Mid-Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends here.

View Steve Makinen’s Late Mid-Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends here.

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