Over the course of the last week and a half, I’ve been running a three-part series covering some of the key betting trends available for each of the college basketball conference tournaments. We’ve reached the conclusion of the series, as this piece will cover the Power Five conference tournaments that will commence on Tuesday, March 11th or later. These are the big ones, the tournaments that grab the biggest audiences and, hence, the most attention from bettors. These leagues also have the most teams in the running for the NCAA tournament top seeds as well as most teams on the “bubble,” so the stakes are always heightened. 

One final reminder of the general thought I introduced last week. Bettors need to understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, heading into the 2025 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye are 312-106 SU and 219-191 ATS (53.4%) over the last five seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game. 

 

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In this piece, the power conference leagues I cover are:

ACC – March 11
BIG 12 – March 11
BIG EAST – March 12
BIG TEN – March 12
SEC – March 12

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2025 tournaments.

ACC

·   Big favorites of 5.5 points or more have been nearly automatic in the ACC tournament of late, 53-8 SU and 36-24-1 ATS (60%) since 2015.

·   ACC teams off a bye and playing as favorites of 4 points or more against teams that have already played in the tournament are 37-4 SU and 26-14-1 ATS (65%) since 2015.

·   ACC opening round favorites have gone 22-2 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) since 2016.

·   ACC second-round favorites are on a 21-11 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) surge over the last eight tournaments but did go 1-3 SU and ATS LY.

·   ACC semifinal underdogs are 13-20 SU but 23-7-3 ATS (76.7%) since 2007, and 10-2-1 ATS since 2017. Both won ATS a year ago.

Big 12

·  Teams off an earlier round bye in the Big 12 tournament and favored have gone 17-2 SU since 2015 and have won their last seven ATS (100%).

·  Mid-level favorites of -4 to -9.5 in the Big 12 bracket have gone 26-12 SU but just 15-23 ATS (39.5%) since 2015.

·  In expectedly competitive games (lines -3.5 or less) of the Big 12 tourney, Under the total is on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge.

·  Underdogs in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney are on an 8-9 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) surge.

·  Big 12 semifinal favorites are on an 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) run dating back to 2013.

·  Totals of 147 or higher have gone 15-5 (75%) Under over the last 11 years in the Big 12 tournament.

Big East

· Only three of the last 22 Big East quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a round 1 bye has lost to a team that played, going 14-8 ATS (63.6%).

· Big East tourney favorites in the -5 to -9.5 range have been vulnerable, 23-13 SU but 11-25 ATS (30.6%) over the last 11 seasons.

· Big East quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on a 12-2 ATS (85.7%) run since 2006. For the tournament, double-digit favorites are on an 11-4 ATS (73.3%) surge.

·  Big East semifinal dogs have been a very profitable play of late, 8-10 SU but 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2015.

· Twelve of the last 14 Big East championship games have gone Under the total (85.7%).

Big Ten

·  Against public perception, games with totals of 130 or less are on a 16-9-1 Over (69.6%) run in the Big Ten tournament.

·  Teams that are off a bye in the Big Ten tournament are 18-14 SU but 9-25-2 ATS (26.5%) versus teams that already played since 2018.

·  The Big Ten tournament semifinals are 10-4 Over the total (71.4%) since 2017, including Overs in the last six.

·  Big Ten tourney conference title game favorites are currently on a 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) skid. However, Illinois (-3.5) did beat Wisconsin last year, 93-87.

SEC

·  Lines of 7 points or more should be noted for two reasons in the SEC tourney. First off, favorites in these games are on a 32-8 SU and 23-15-2 ATS (60.5%) run since 2014, and second, these games have gone Under the total at a 28-11-1 (71.8%) rate.

· The BYE has proven important in the SEC tournament of late, as rested teams are on a 31-13 SU and 26-18 ATS (59.1%) run versus teams that have already played.

· Totals of 145 or higher have gone 24-12-1 Under the total (66.7%) in the SEC tournament since 2009. However, they were 5-3 Over in 2024.

·  SEC title game favorites are on a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS (66.7%) run since 2015.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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