ACC and Big Ten
The new look ACC and Big Ten conferences are going to raise a lot of questions this college basketball season.
Can Stanford and Cal reinvigorate their programs in the ACC?
Is SMU ready to be a power conference program?
Will the former Pac-12 teams make an immediate impact in a loaded Big Ten?
There is another question bettors are already asking about these two gargantuan conferences.
Will all the daunting travel these teams face impact their on-the-court performance?
To get ahead of this question before it becomes a popular media narrative, we asked a number of college basketball bettors their thoughts and how it will be incorporated into their handicapping.
We also broke down the schedule for each ACC and Big Ten team to identify the stretch of games most impacted by travel.
Change of season
Before college basketball bettors consider if the added mileage about to take place in these conferences will affect game performance (and the spread), they first can look towards the ongoing football season.
The results as of mid-October have already caught the attention of Circa’s VP of Operations and college basketball betting guru Mike Palm.
“The “Coast to Coast Big 10” has staged nine games where teams traveled at least two time zones” said Palm. “The visitors are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in those games.”
Even Penn State’s James Franklin intimated how the thousands of miles it takes to reach the West Coast altered his football team’s established routine. In order to make it to Los Angeles for the USC game, the Nittany Lions left a day earlier than normal because a two-hour bus ride was needed to get to Harrisburg. There they could charter a larger plane that didn’t need to be refueled.
Bettors then took note of Franklin’s comments and the line dropped from Penn State -5.5 to -3.5. Perhaps the journey did play a role as the more talented Nittany Lions came out sluggish and trailed 20-6 in the first half. Eventually they made an impressive comeback and won 33-30.
Add that to the ATS loss total Palm previously mentioned.
This same trend of Big Ten football teams struggling with travel across multiple time zones already has VSiN’s Mitch Moss thinking about the implications for basketball.
“Looking at the records of Big Ten teams traveling at least two time zones, sure it’s a pretty small sample size overall, but could this trickle into college hoops and be a thing for the foreseeable future? Absolutely. Letdown & lookahead spots have existed for years at the college level. Adding in extended travel to your handicap needs to be part of the equation for these conferences.”
While the football games are once a week with teams coming right back home afterwards, the ACC and Big Ten basketball teams will head out on road trips to play sets of games. The 12-game football season also creates more urgency than the 30+ games in basketball.
These schools are about to set out on the road like they do in the professional ranks. That means college bettors must be ready to identify occasions when colleges might slip into the bad habits made in the NBA according to professional sports bettor Chris Macero.
“We have to watch early on if colleges deal with the travel and schedule spots like those in the NBA call an ‘off night’ where they mail in a game after tough travel,” said the California-based Macero. “You have to at least consider that it will become more of a thing in the ACC and Big Ten.”
Macero recommends bettors keep their eye on these schedule points early on this season.
“Yeah, the travel is going to be tough for teams and players, but it creates more opportunities for the bettor to find favorable spots due to rough travel conditions.”
The new ACC and Big Ten is putting more games like this on his radar.
“I guess you would have to call the road games in these two conferences Super Situational Spots.”
Travel plans
Even though Palm is still focused on fall action, he expects to include coast-to-coast road trips in his college basketball handicapping since he has seen travel play a large role in other sports.
“The exaggerated travel has to be a point of emphasis in handicapping these ACC and Big Ten games,” said Palm.
Now that schedules are available, VSiN’s Matt Youmans can determine when there will be upcoming travel issues, especially in a conference he focuses on like the Big Ten. The host of Circa’s College Hoops Challenges plans to handicap with them in mind.
“I will be looking to bet against travel-weary teams on extended trips. Obviously, the oddsmakers are aware of that angle and the betting market won’t sleep on it, but some of those teams will fall into really bad spots where the numbers are not adjusted enough.
“We make a big deal about the football road trips, but there are far more travel miles involved in the basketball schedules.”
Youmans already highlighted a 10-day stretch for UCLA in January that includes a game at Rutgers.
The winner of Youmans’ Circa contest, David Dineen, a former player at Cal Poly, feels travel is a factor to consider but warns handicappers from over-generalizing it in their analysis.
“It should be in your handicap but don’t make it too much,” said Dineen, who hyperfocuses his betting on college basketball.
“Don’t forget how good your body can bounce back when you’re 19-23 years old. These players have been playing AAU since 11 years old, traveling around the country playing games, sometimes three a day.”
Dineen feels there is just too much money at stake for these teams not to make elite-level accommodations. That includes the best hotels, restaurants and ways to rest between games.
He believes the ACC and Big Ten coaches spent much of the offseason planning on the best ways to earmark off days during trips.
That is also a reason why veteran handicapper Brue Marshall initially feels that the travel angle may be a “tad overrated.”
Marshall contends that yes, a trip for a team like UCLA to the Eastern time zone comes with an added level of difficulty. However when those same Bruins travel to the Midwest, other than a new time zone, it won’t be much different than when they flew up to the Northwest for Pac-12 games.
“Bottom line is the travel might be a factor, but not as important as the teams they face and the matchups,” said Marshall, who handicaps college games for Vegas Insider and CBS Sportsline.
He gives this nugget of college hoops betting advice in advance.
“As always monitor the season as it goes. Home and road always figures into the handicap and sometimes really factors in, but to assume it will be more pronounced this season may be jumping the gun a bit. Let’s wait to see how much difference there is before making any line adjustments.”
Schedule breakdown
Here are the schedule segments identified as being most impacted by travel for every ACC and Big Ten squad
ACC
Boston College
Sat 2/22 home Georgia Tech
Wed 2/26 AT Stanford
Sat 3/1 AT California
Wed 3/5 home Clemson
Look ahead: The games in Northern California occur later in the season after most of the ACC grind. If BC is out of contention for a tournament bid – something that last happened in 2009 – motivation and travel could likely come into play during this segment of games.
California
Wed 3/5 AT Louisville
Sat 3/8 AT Notre Dame
Look ahead: It is hard to pinpoint the segment of Cal’s conference schedule most impacted by travel because the entire season will be. That is what happens when the Golden Bears leave Berkeley to go south, then east and in a different time zone. The games mentioned above are just how they will end a long regular season. In total, Cal will make four significant ACC road trips. Can bookmakers correctly bake the travel into Cal’s final games?
Clemson
Sat 2/15 AT FSU
Sat 2/22 AT SMU
Look ahead: Should not be an overtly difficult schedule for Brad Brownell to navigate. They get the California teams at home after they already played at Wake Forest. When it comes time to trek to Dallas, the Tigers have a week to prepare after playing in Tallahassee.
Duke
Wed 2/12 home California
Sat 2/15 home Stanford
Mon 2/17 AT Virginia
Look ahead: The Blue Devils got an assist from ACC schedule makers. Just a standalone trip to SMU (1/4) and the California schools come to Durham when all the Cameron Crazies will be back from winter break. Seems to lessen the load right before the short trip to Charlottesville.
Florida State
Wed 1/22 AT California
Sat 1/25 AT Stanford
Wed 1/29 home Virginia Tech
Look ahead: The home game against Va. Tech might be the one most affected by travel. FSU returns from the other coast and plays a physical Hokies team first game back.
Georgia Tech
Tue 1/7 AT Syracuse
Sat 1/11 AT SMU
Look ahead: After its business trip from Atlanta to Upstate New York, Georgia Tech will either have a short turnaround at home or stay longer on the road. The amount of court time Damon Stoudamire has to practice in-between should be limited due to the travel.
Louisville
Sat 1/11 AT Pittsburgh
Tue 1/14 AT Syracuse
Sat 1/18 home Virginia
Tue 1/21 AT SMU
Look ahead: Pat Kelsey must deal with these 10 specific days to get wins and rest in order to push for a tournament bid. He will benefit from the final three games of the season at home with two against the California squads ending their long seasons.
Miami
Wed 1/22 AT Stanford
Sat 1/25 AT California
Wed 1/29 home Virginia
Look ahead: Nothing epitomizes the current state of college basketball than a team from South Florida jet setting to Northern California for conference matchups. The Hurricanes better get rid of any residual travel issues prior to the arrival of Virginia’s defense.
North Carolina
Tue 1/7 home SMU
Sat 1/11 AT NC State
Wed 1/15 home California
Sat 1/18 home Stanford
Tue 1/21 AT Wake Forest
Look ahead: UNC should challenge for both a conference and national championship. A lot of that has to do with an almost unbelievably accommodating schedule in the new look ACC. During that segment noted above, the Tar Heels don’t leave the state and get to play teams based in Texas and California.
North Carolina State
Wed 2/5 AT California
Sat 2/8 AT Stanford
…
Wed 2/26 AT Syracuse
Sat 3/1 AT Georgia Tech
Wed 3/5 home Pittsburgh
Sat 3/8 AT Miami
Look ahead: While UNC got a favorable version, its little brother down the road in Raleigh got the worst part of it. The Wolfpack have a trip to California in early February then go up and down the eastern part of the country to end the season. They are likely going to be dogs crawling to the finish line in all those final contests.
Notre Dame
Wed 3/5 home Stanford
Sat 3/8 home California
Look ahead: The Midwesterners really don’t deal with any added abnormal travel. SMU, Cal and Stanford all play at the Purcell Pavilion.
Pittsburgh
Sat 2/8 AT North Carolina
Tue 2/11 AT SMU
Look ahead: The Panthers have a rather smooth ACC road schedule as of now. The California teams come to the Petersen Events Center at the start of the New Year. The trip from Chapel Hill to Dallas requires a relatively quick turnaround.
SMU
Wed 2/26 AT California
Sat 3/1 AT Stanford
Tue 3/4 home Syracuse
Sat 3/8 AT Florida State
Look ahead: Not an advantageous way for this Texas program to end the season. There are games on the West Coast leading to one at home then a Florida trip.
Syracuse
Sat 1/25 home Pittsburgh
Wed 1/29 AT Stanford
Sat 2/1 AT California
Wed 2/5 home Duke
Look ahead: The time in wine country for the Orange has the look of trap games. The contests before and right after clearly have more meaning to them.
Stanford
Wed 1/15 AT Wake Forest
Sat 1/18 AT North Carolina
Look ahead: Like with Cal, the entire schedule for Stanford should be difficult so each segment has its own implications. The one mentioned above comes after the Cardinal makes its first trip east (1/1 Clemson, 1/4 Pittsburgh) then home for two games (1/8 Virginia Tech, 1/11 Virginia) and then onto Tobacco Road.
Virginia
Sat 1/4 home Louisville
Wed 1/8 AT California
Sat 1/11 AT Stanford
Wed 1/15 home SMU
Sat 1/18 AT Louisville
Look ahead: The Cavaliers might be on upset alert when Louisville gets its return game.
Virginia Tech
Tue 2/25 home Louisville
Sat 3/1 home Syracuse
Tue 3/4 home North Carolina
Sat 3/8 AT Clemson
Look ahead: Going under the premise that there should be some travel weary teams, Va. Tech might be getting a number of them coming to Blacksburg to end the season.
Wake Forest
Wed 2/5 AT Stanford
Sat 2/8 AT California
Wed 2/12 home FSU
Sat 2/15 AT SMU
Sat 2/22 AT NC State
Look ahead: This February stretch for Wake Forest might be an opportune time for bettors to situationally play against the Demon Deacons. The amount of road games – even to nearby NC State – are bunched in the last portion of the season. This could be the hardest travel segment an ACC team faces in conference play during 2025.
Big Ten
Illinois
Sun 12/29 home Chicago State
Thu 1/2 At Oregon
Sun 1/5 AT Washington
Wed 1/8 home Penn State
Look ahead: Appears to be the standard Big Ten schedule with an early January trip to the Pacific Northwest. Conveniently, that comes after a December filled mostly with home games and a contest against Chicago State before its flight to Eugene.
Indiana
Sat 3/1 AT Washington
Tue 3/4 AT Oregon
Sat 3/8 home Ohio State
Look ahead: Winter time trips in the Big Ten are already laborious. Indiana now adds a West Coast flight to it to round out the season. Perhaps the residual effects will be seen more during the Big Ten tournament that starts a week after its return home.
Iowa
Tue 1/4 AT USC
Fri 1/17 AT UCLA
Tue 1/21 home Minnesota
Look ahead: Iowa shouldn’t have many concerns during conference play. The Hawkeyes play their first eight games at home and then travel to USC and UCLA in mid-January.
Maryland
Thu 1/2 AT Washington
Sun 1/5 AT Oregon
Fri 1/10 home UCLA
Look ahead: Great schedule for a team dealing with a coast-to-coast itinerary. The Terrapins play a tune-up game against Maryland-Eastern Shore then go to Washington and Oregon. After a five-day break, in comes UCLA making the opposite trip.
Michigan
Sat 1/4 AT USC
Tue 1/7 AT UCLA
Sun 1/12 home Washington
Look ahead: Similar scenario for Michigan as Maryland.
Michigan State
Sat 1/25 AT Rutgers
Tue 1/28 home Minnesota
Sat 2/1 AT USC
Tue 2/4 AT UCLA
Sat 2/8 home Oregon
Look ahead: This is a hard stretch where a physical team like MSU might show signs of slowing down from going to New Jersey, back home, then on to Southern California in just over a week.
Minnesota
Tue 2/4 AT Penn State
Sat 2/8 home Illinois
Sat 2/15 AT USC
Tue 2/18 AT UCLA
Look ahead: This could be a road-weary Big Ten team that Youmans alluded to earlier.
Nebraska
Sun 1/26 AT Wisconsin
Thu 1/30 home Illinois
Sun 2/2 AT Oregon
Wed 2/5 AT Washington
Look ahead: Another team to possibly bet against based on situational handicapping. The Cornhuskers have extensive travel from the start of January until early February.
Northwestern
Sat 2/8 AT Washington
Tue 2/11 AT Oregon
Sun 2/16 home Nebraska
Thu 2/20 AT Ohio State
Tue 2/25 AT Minnesota
Look ahead: This stretch could create issues. There might be chances to go against the Wildcats because they have a reputation for being competitive dogs (9-6 ATS in 2024).
Ohio State
Sun 2/23 AT UCLA
Wed 2/26 AT USC
Tue 3/4 home Nebraska
Sat 3/8 AT Indiana
Look ahead: Very difficult way for OSU to end a season.
Oregon
Sat 1/25 AT Minnesota
Thu 1/30 AT UCLA
Sun 2/2 home Nebraska
Wed 2/5 AT Michigan
Sat 2/8 AT Michigan State
Look ahead: This is the honey-hole for situational bettors to go against the Ducks.
Penn State
Sat 2/8 AT UCLA
Tue 2/11 AT USC
Look ahead: Remember, the basketball team will have the same issues Franklin identified. Based on their entire schedule, Penn State will spend a lot of time in hotels during 2025.
Purdue
Thu 1/9 AT Rutgers
Sun 1/12 home Nebraska
Thu 1/16 AT Washington
Sat 1/18 AT Oregon
Look ahead: Futures bettors are going to want to look ahead at the Purdue schedule since the Boilermakers are favored to win the Big Ten regular season title. How well they navigate this stretch will play a large part in if they can make it three championships in a row.
Rutgers
Sun 2/16 AT Oregon
Thu 2/20 AT Washington
Sun 2/23 home USC
Thu 2/27 AT Michigan
Tue 3/4 AT Purdue
Look ahead: As would be expected, this could be the team most impacted by all the travel. The Scarlet Knights also have a Las Vegas getaway scheduled for a tournament at the end of November. It seems like a reasonable expectation that star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey could hit the wall by late February.
UCLA
Fri 1/4 AT Nebraska
Tue 1/7 home Michigan
Fri 1/10 AT Maryland
Mon 1/13 AT Rutgers
Look ahead: The bookmakers believe UCLA can handle all this travel by making them one of the regular season favorites. As Marshall said, this is a program already versed in dealing with the road. Still, there is a cumulative effect of all those miles from Westwood to these games. Consequently, I believe a more centralized favorite like Purdue or Indiana would be a better bet or more value on Illinois than UCLA.
USC
Thu 2/20 AT Maryland
Sun 2/23 AT Rutgers
Wed 2/26 home Ohio State
Sat 3/1 AT Oregon
Look ahead: Some have called Eric Musselman’s team a wildcard that could finish surprisingly high in the Big Ten standings. That claim may be done by just looking at talent and not the travel implications of finishing a long season this way.
Washington
Wed 2/12 AT Ohio State
Sat 2/15 AT Penn State
Thu 2/20 home Rutgers
Sat 2/22 AT Iowa
Tue 2/25 AT Wisconsin
Look ahead: Other than Great Osobor, the Huskies don’t appear to have a roster built for the Big Ten to begin with. They are likely going to be dogs in all these games. As of now, I am not sure the books can make a line high enough to scare me away from taking the favorites.
Wisconsin
Sat 1/18 AT USC
Tue 1/21 AT UCLA
Sun 1/26 home Nebraska
Wed 1/29 AT Maryland
Sat 2/1 AT Northwestern
Look ahead: Seems like travel should be part of the daily handicap when Wisconsin enters this stretch.
