I can’t tell you how many times this season I have been asked about the possibility of a VSiN College Basketball Analytics Report. Unfortunately, because of the sheer volume of games and only partial automation involved with putting the reports for other sports together right now, it remains in the “hopefully soon” bin. Along those lines, I thought I’d put together a “defacto” CBB Analytics Report for Saturday’s huge lineup, using much of the articles I’ve been putting out recently on VSiN, as well as a few other things. I hope you enjoy the piece as we have officially entered the month of madness!

From my Top CBB head-to-head trends to mark on your calendar piece from early January, I described the importance of head-to-head histories between teams in conference play, as there have been countless series’ in which there have been definitive betting trends that have formed. I gave a top list of remaining games for the season in which some of those trends would apply. Four of those top trends will be in play for Saturday, they were:

 

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(621) YOUNGSTOWN ST at (622) N KENTUCKY
* HOME TEAMS are 12-5 SU and 14-3 ATS in the N KENTUCKY-YOUNGSTOWN ST head-to-head series since 2017 

(643) MINNESOTA at (644) NEBRASKA
* HOME TEAMS are 17-2 SU and ATS in the MINNESOTA-NEBRASKA head-to-head series since 2013 

(705) SE MISSOURI ST at (706) E ILLINOIS
* SE MISSOURI ST is 17-8 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. E ILLINOIS since 2013

(707) MOREHEAD ST at (708) TENN-MARTIN
* HOME TEAMS are 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in the MOREHEAD ST-TENN-MARTIN head-to-head series since 2018

Here are some significant other head-to-head trends to watch for for Saturday: 

(603) MIAMI at (604) N CAROLINA
* MIAMI has won its last five ATS versus UNC, all as an underdog 

(609) SYRACUSE at (610) VIRGINIA TECH
* HOME TEAMS have won the last five ATS in Syracuse-Virginia Tech head-to-head series 

(613) BUTLER at (614) VILLANOVA
* VILLANOVA is on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak at home vs. Butler, all wins by double-digit margins 

(619) MIAMI OHIO at (620) OHIO U
* OHIO U is on an 11-0 SU and 10-0-1 ATS streak hosting Miami (OH) 

(657) WRIGHT ST at (658) IUPUI
* HOME TEAMS have won the last five ATS in Wright St-IUPUI series

(661) NC STATE at (662) GEORGIA TECH
* ROAD TEAMS are 20-5 ATS in the last 25 non-neutral matchups between NC State and Georgia Tech 

(667) PURDUE FT WAYNE at (668) CLEVELAND ST
* CLEVELAND STATE is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run vs. Purdue Ft Wayne 

(669) ALABAMA at (670) TENNESSEE
* UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of ALA-TEN series in Knoxville, but did lose last year 

(687) SAMFORD at (688) UNC-GREENSBORO
* SAMFORD is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in the last eight head-to-head games vs. UNC-Greensboro

(701) W CAROLINA at (702) MERCER
* W CAROLINA is on a 10-1 ATS surge vs. Mercer 

(703) ARK-LITTLE ROCK at (704) SIU EDWARDSVL
* ARK-LITTLE ROCK has swept its last five games vs. SIUE ATS 

(753) OAKLAND at (754) WI-GREEN BAY
* WI-GREEN BAY is on 7-1-1 ATS run hosting Oakland 

(759) SANTA CLARA at (760) PACIFIC
* SANTA CLARA is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games vs. Pacific 

(795) CS-FULLERTON at (796) CAL SAN DIEGO
* CAL SAN DIEGO is on a 7-1 ATS run versus CS-Fullerton 

(306617) LEHIGH at (306618) ARMY
* ROAD TEAMS have won the last six ATS in Lehigh-Army head-to-head series 

(306639) LONG ISLAND at (306640) FARLEIGH DICKINSON
* LONG ISLAND has won its last five ATS vs. FDU 

(306647) NORFOLK ST at (306648) S CAROLINA ST
* ROAD TEAMS have won the last seven ATS in NSU-SCSU head-to-head series 

(306653) HOWARD at (306654) NC CENTRAL
* HOME TEAMS have won the last eight ATS in Howard-NC Central head-to-head series 

(306657) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN at (306658) NORTHWESTERN ST
* NORTHWESTERN ST has won its the last five ATS hosting Houston Christian 

(306667) C CONN ST at (306668) WAGNER
* WAGNER has won its last six ATS versus CCSU and UNDERDOGS are on 8-1 ATS run in the series

(306669) GRAMBLING at (306670) FLORIDA AandM
* ROAD TEAMS have won the last six ATS in Grambling-FAMU head-to-head series

Next up rematches, from my recent piece entitled CBB rematch betting strategies for the power conferences, I mentioned that with the season winding down, it was a great time to look more closely at the rematch stats and trends that have formed in recent years in order to immediately take advantage. I unveiled the best and worst power conference teams in rematches and some interesting systems. At that point, I found the actionable spots for the games that weekend. I’m doing the same here for the Saturda, March 1st games. There are 11 “rematch” games from a meeting already this season. The records shown are as they stood from BOY 2021-22 through Wednesday, 2/11. 

Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE rematch teams lately
– ARIZONA: 24-5 SU and 20-8 ATS – PLAYS AT IOWA STATE 3/1 

Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE rematch teams lately
– OREGON: 15-13 SU and 7-21 ATS – HOSTS USC 3/1
– LOUISVILLE: 2-17 SU and 6-13 ATS – HOSTS PITTSBURGH 3/1
– XAVIER: 16-18 SU and 11-22 ATS – HOSTS CRIEGHTON 3/1 

Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE HOME rematch teams lately
– LOUISVILLE: 2-7 SU and ATS – HOSTS PITTSBURGH 3/1
– OREGON: 10-4 SU but 4-10 ATS – HOSTS USC 3/1 

Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE ROAD rematch teams lately
– ARIZONA: 13-3 SU and 12-3 ATS – PLAYS AT IOWA STATE 3/1 

Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE REVENGE teams lately
– XAVIER: 7-8 SU and 4-10 ATS – HOSTS CREIGHTON 3/1
– BUTLER: 4-16 SU and 6-13 ATS – PLAYS AT VILLANOVA 3/1

Best CBB POWER CONFERENCE teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– ARIZONA: 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS – PLAYS AT IOWA STATE 3/1
– CREIGHTON: 16-6 SU and 13-7 ATS – PLAYS AT XAVIER 3/1
– VILLANOVA: 14-4 SU and 9-5 ATS – HOSTS BUTLER 3/1 

Worst CBB POWER CONFERENCE teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– OREGON: 9-8 SU and 5-12 ATS – HOSTS USC 3/1 

Low-scoring rematch teams
– IOWA STATE: 17-9 UNDER the total – HOSTS ARIZONA 3/1
– BUTLER: 21-12 UNDER the total  – PLAYS AT VILLANOVA 3/1 

All of the trends above have been team-specific betting angles, the remaining five are POWER CONFERENCE WIDE SYSTEMS that we can fit teams into.

1) CBB POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS THAT LOST at home in the opening game between teams and are now on the road and maintain a winning record are on a 110-70 ATS (61.1%) run.
This is an ideal spot for backing a team in revenge mode, and they are still seemingly a quality team as judged by their record and have the motivation of paying a team back from a home loss. Plus, on the road, they are granted a few extra points to play with by oddsmakers.
PITTSBURGH (at Louisville) qualifies as a play for Saturday 3/1

2) CBB POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS THAT LOST the opening game between teams and are now double-digit road underdogs have gone just 14-124 SU BUT are on an 83-54 ATS (60.6%) run.
Consider this a spot where the better team may be taking a late-season matchup against a lesser conference rival too lightly. These games are typically overpriced, and we all know that most conference matchups aren’t easy, regardless of the circumstances with each team.
USC (at Oregon), SETON HALL (at St John’s), and PITTSBURGH (at Louisville) all could qualify on Saturday, 3/1

3) ON TOTALS, any CBB POWER CONFERENCE REMATCH game that includes a team winning less than 42% of its games has gone OVER the total at a 131-89 (59.5%) rate over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
This angle could be reasoned with the losing teams not being great defensively, and the opponent, having seen them already, fattening up on a second chance to put together some big offensive numbers.
The SETON HALL-ST JOHNS game qualifies on Saturday, 3/1

The most recent piece I published this past Monday was titled “Handicapping final two weeks in college basketball’s power conferences,” and it’s been off to a fantastic start since its release. In it, I shared how I’ve always believed that the last couple of weeks before any sport’s postseason are crucial. The article revealed which programs have been the best and worst finishers in recent years, as well as some specific strategies for dealing with these final regular season games in the power leagues. 

Here are some of the findings of that piece and how they affect Saturday’s games:

Top SU Teams
CONNECTICUT: 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS – PLAYS AT PROVIDENCE 3/1
NORTH CAROLINA: 21-5 SU and 14-11 ATS – HOSTS MIAMI 3/1
VIRGINIA: 19-6 SU and 13-12 ATS – HOSTS CLEMSON 3/1
OREGON: 21-7 SU and 16-12 ATS – HOSTS USC 3/1
TENNESSEE: 20-7 SU and 15-11 ATS – HOSTS ALABAMA 3/1
KENTUCKY: 20-7 SU and 14-13 ATS – HOSTS AUBURN 3/1 

Top ATS Teams
GEORGIA TECH: 18-9 SU and 24-3 ATS – HOSTS NC STATE 3/1
CONNECTICUT: 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS – PLAYS AT PROVIDENCE 3/1
TEXAS A&M: 16-10 SU and 17-8 ATS – PLAYS AT FLORIDA 3/1
CREIGHTON: 16-9 SU and 15-9 ATS – PLAYS AT XAVIER 3/1
OKLAHOMA ST: 15-14 SU and 18-11 ATS – PLAYS AT BAYLOR 3/1
ARKANSAS: 16-12 SU and 17-11 ATS – PLAYS AT S CAROLINA 3/1
SOUTH CAROLINA: 13-15 SU and 17-11 ATS – HOSTS ARKANSAS 3/1 

Bottom SU Teams
GEORGETOWN: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS – HOSTS MARQUETTE 3/1
GEORGIA: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS – PLAYS AT TEXAS 3/1
LOUISVILLE: 5-20 SU and 10-15 ATS – HOSTS PITTSBURGH 3/1
MINNESOTA: 6-22 SU and 10-17 ATS – PLAYS AT NEBRASKA 3/1
CALIFORNIA: 6-17 SU and 10-13 ATS – HOSTS BOSTON COLLEGE 3/1
IOWA STATE: 8-21 SU and 9-18 ATS – HOSTS ARIZONA 3/1
PITTSBURGH: 7-17 SU and 11-12 ATS – PLAYS AT LOUISVILLE 3/1 

Bottom ATS Teams
ALABAMA: 12-16 SU and 7-21 ATS – PLAYS AT TENNESSEE 3/1
IOWA STATE: 8-21 SU and 9-18 ATS – HOSTS ARIZONA 3/1
WAKE FOREST: 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS – HOSTS NOTRE DAME 3/1
MISSISSIPPI ST: 12-16 SU and 9-17 ATS – HOSTS LSU 3/1
XAVIER: 14-12 SU and 9-17 ATS – HOSTS CREIGHTON 3/1
MINNESOTA: 6-22 SU and 10-17 ATS – PLAYS AT NEBRASKA 3/1
SYRACUSE: 10-18 SU and 10-17 ATS – PLAYS AT VIRGINIA TECH 3/1
KANSAS: 18-9 SU and 10-16 ATS – HOSTS TEXAS TECH 3/1 

Best Home Teams
MICHIGAN ST: 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS – BONUS – HOSTS WISCONSIN 3/2
KANSAS: 13-1 SU and 7-7 ATS – HOSTS TEXAS TECH 3/1
GEORGIA TECH: 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS – HOSTS NC STATE 3/1 

Worst Home Teams
GEORGETOWN: 3-12 SU and 7-8 ATS – HOSTS MARQUETTE 3/1
LOUISVILLE: 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS – HOSTS PITTSBURGH 3/1
IOWA ST: 5-9 SU and 3-10 ATS – HOSTS ARIZONA 3/1
OLE MISS: 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS – HOSTS OKLAHOMA 3/1
VANDERBILT: 5-9 SU and 6-7 ATS – HOSTS MISSOURI 3/1 

Best Road Teams
CONNECTICUT: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS – PLAYS AT PROVIDENCE 3/1
TEXAS AandM: 8-5 SU and 9-3 ATS – PLAYS AT FLORIDA 3/1 

Worst Road Teams
MINNESOTA: 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS – PLAYS AT NEBRASKA 3/1
GEORGIA: 1-11 SU and 5-7 ATS – PLAYS AT TEXAS 3/1
PITTSBURGH: 1-11 SU and 5-6 ATS – PLAYS AT LOUISVILLE 3/1
NOTRE DAME: 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS – PLAYS AT WAKE FOREST 3/1
MARYLAND: 2-9 SU and 2-8 ATS – PLAYS AT PENN ST 3/1 

On Totals – OVER and UNDER Teams
WEST VIRGINIA: 21-7 OVER the total – PLAYS AT BYU 3/1
ARKANSAS: 20-8 OVER the total – PLAYS AT S CAROLINA 3/1
MINNESOTA: 18-8 OVER the total – PLAYS AT NEBRASKA 3/1
SOUTH CAROLINA: 18-9 OVER the total – HOSTS ARKANSAS 3/1
NEBRASKA: 19-10 OVER the total – HOSTS MINNESOTA 3/1
GEORGIA TECH: 17-9 OVER the total – HOSTS NC STATE 3/1
VIRGINIA TECH: 17-8 UNDER the total – HOSTS SYRACUSE 3/1
CLEMSON: 18-10 UNDER the total – PLAYS AT VIRGINIA 3/1
BUTLER: 14-8 UNDER the total – PLAYS AT VILLANOVA 3/1
TENNESSEE: 16-10 UNDER the total – HOSTS ALABAMA 3/1

There have been some trends that have developed in the various conferences specific to line range. Take a look. 

* There has been a definitive line point in ACC home favorite betting and that has been 10-points. ACC home teams in the -1 to -10 range are on a 73-19 SU and 59-30-3 ATS (66.3%) run, a sign that home-court advantage can be the deciding factor in expectedly tighter games. At the same time, ACC hosts favored by more than 10-points have gone 27-5 SU but 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%), while those playing as home underdogs are just 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in their last 21 tries.

The expected small ACC home favorites on Saturday, 3/1, include CALIFORNIA (vs. Boston College), WAKE FOREST (vs. Notre Dame), GEORGIA TECH (vs. NC State), VIRGINIA TECH (vs. Syracuse), and STANFORD (vs. SMU)
* There are some very interesting trends in Big East games with lofty totals of 150 or higher posted since 2018. In these games in the last two weeks of the regular season, hosts are 34-14 SU and 33-15 ATS (68.8%), while totals are 30-18 OVER (62.5%). 

The only Big East game that could approach this lofty total benchmark would be Xavier-Creighton
* Home teams in the -2.5 to +2.5 line range have proven far from trustworthy in the Big 12 last two weeks’ games of recent years. In fact, they are just 10-18 SU and ATS (35.7%) in their last 28 tries. The best line range to play Big 12 home favorites has been in the -3 to -10.5 range as they are 45-14 SU and 31-24-4 ATS (56.4%).
TCU (vs. UCF) and UTAH (vs. Arizona State) could qualify as small favorites 

KANSAS (vs. Texas Tech), IOWA STATE (vs. Arizona), and BYU (vs. West Virginia) should be -3 to -10.5 home favorites 

* Contrary to popular belief, laying a lot of points with hosts in the Big Ten has been a rewarding strategy, as those favored by double-digits are on a 27-4 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) run since 2018.
OREGON (vs. USC) should be a double-digit favorite on Saturday, 3/1

* Big Ten home underdogs of more than 3 points have been very dangerous, going 15-16 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%) since 2018.
PENN STATE (vs. Maryland) and WASHINGTON (vs. Indiana) could both qualify on Saturday 3/1

* SEC home teams have really dragged the numbers down overall for the power 5 collective in recent years, going just 32-52 ATS (38.1%) over the last three seasons. Of note, OVER the total is 57-26 (68.7%) in the SEC in that time frame.
The SEC home teams for Saturday are TENNESSEE (vs. Alabama), SOUTH CAROLINA (vs. Arkansas), KENTUCKY (vs. Auburn), TEXAS (vs. Georgia), MISSISSIPPI STATE (vs. LSU), VANDERBILT (vs. Missouri), OLE MISS (vs. Oklahoma), and FLORIDA (vs. Texas AandM) 

* Small SEC home dogs have really struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, as those at +4.5 points or less are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS (24.1%) since 2018.
SEC home teams that could be small home dogs for Saturday are SOUTH CAROLINA (vs. Arkansas), KENTUCKY (vs. Auburn), and VANDERBILT (vs. Missouri) 

* Lofty totaled SEC games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 have been explosive, as games with totals of 150 or higher have gone 32-16 OVER (66.7%), producing 162.1 PPG on totals averaging 157.4.
I project that there will be four SEC games on Saturday, 3/1 meeting this lofty total criteria: Auburn-Kentucky, Oklahoma-Ole Miss, Alabama-Tennessee, and Missouri-Vanderbilt 

There is certainly a lot more I could include on a repeatable CBB Analytics Report daily, but this gives you an idea of some of the things I will be using for my own handicapping. Of course, I am also going to be utilizing my DAILY MATCHUP RATINGS as well, and those will undergo a final update at around 11 AM ET and will reflect the latest injury news and line moves.

Good luck with this final massive Saturday of college basketball games. The clock has turned to March, can you feel it?!

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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