College Basketball Wooden Award Futures Best Bets:
For college basketball bettors who are currently looking to build their futures portfolios, one key strategy is to find ways to diversify them beyond just national championship plays. Over the past few years, a popular way to do that has been to add Wooden Award tickets into the mix. National championship and Wooden Award futures have become companion pieces for many.
The major books keep posting the Wooden Award board earlier during the offseason, and a lot of the handicapping work used for national championship wagers also applies to the award, since it overwhelmingly goes to the best player on a team contending for a title.
So for those who have already invested in the national championship market and are looking to add something different to their futures portfolios, let’s break down the Wooden Award winner field by placing the top candidates in different tiers based on their potential to take home the honor, along with their accompanying odds.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings
Tier 1 – Favorites
- Jeremy Fears Jr. (+850)
- Thomas Haugh (10-1)
- John Blackwell (12-1)
- David Mirkovic (14-1)
The population of this year’s top tier looks much different than a year ago, when only Braden Smith (+550) was listed here, as the next group of contenders, including winner Cameron Boozer (12-1), were in the 10-1 to 12-1 range. That means these favorites offer bettors the potential for greater ROI.
Blackwell, formerly of Wisconsin and now at Duke, is the only one of this group to have gone portalling in the offseason.
Fears, the Michigan State guard, has the lowest odds based on his 15 PPG and 9.4 APG from a year ago. The 6-foot-2 junior is in charge of a veteran Tom Izzo team looking to contend for a national championship.
Haugh already has one national championship on his resume, and another one could be on its way. The Florida big man averaged 17.1 points last year as he became the focal point for Todd Golden’s offense. That point total should once again rise with even more refinement to his offensive game.
After three highly productive seasons in Madison, Blackwell brings his 19.1 PPG to Duke with the hopes of leading the Blue Devils to the Final Four and more.
Mirkovic, a major force in Illinois’ run to the Final Four last year, is back in Champaign as Brad Underwood continues to rely on the Eastern European flair of his roster.
Tier 1 breakdown: All of these candidates currently have the preseason look of a Wooden Award winner. They all should be the top scoring threat for highly ranked teams with the potential to land a No. 1 seed in March.
Last year, Boozer averaged 22.5 PPG for the No. 1-seeded Blue Devils. The season prior, it was Cooper Flagg and his 19.2 PPG that led Duke to a top seed as well.
There has to be concern about backing Fears because the demanding Izzo has never coached a Wooden Award winner. Gary Harris was a finalist in 2014 with 17.7 PPG. In order for Fears to win the award, he would definitely need to put up higher scoring numbers than Harris. However, that might be an issue based on Izzo’s team structure and the presence of Coen Carr (12.0 PPG), another award candidate.
Haugh must look something like Flagg 2.0 to win the award. Like Fears, he will be surrounded by a number of veteran Gators, including Alex Condon, who are more than capable of filling up stat sheets.
Mirkovic’s case already has some issues, as he is working through a foot injury suffered in August. Reports out of Illinois indicate Mirkovic is confident about playing at the same elite level he did a year ago. Nonetheless, a foot injury for a 6-foot-9 forward tends to linger.
Blackwell could be the best candidate of this group. He has already shown an ability to score, and now with Duke, his star status could reach an even higher level. The Blackwell campaign will benefit from the media coverage speculating whether Duke could produce its third straight Wooden Award winner.
Duke and St. John’s (Chris Mullin in 1985 and Walter Berry in 1986) are the only schools to have different back-to-back winners.
For Blackwell to win, he is going to need to put up similar numbers to those of the last group of true guards to win the award — Jalen Brunson (2018), Frank Mason (2017), and Buddy Hield (2016).
The averages for those three award-winning seasons are 21.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 3.9 APG. Reaching similar numbers shouldn’t be a problem for Blackwell, who last year averaged 19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.3 APG.
Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer at the point are going to provide Blackwell plenty of room to operate.
Tier 2 – In the Conversation
- Tyran Stokes (17-1)
- Tyler Tanner (21-1)
- Jordan Smith Jr. (25-1)
- Tounde Yessoufou (26-1)
- Flory Bidunga (32-1)
- Alex Condon (33-1)
- Stefan Vaaks (36-1)
- Caleb Holt (38-1)
- David Punch (39-1)
Tier 2 breakdown: Condon (Florida) and Vaaks (Illinois) are in the shadow of teammates with even higher expectations and brand equity.
Bill Self once again will feature an elite high school prospect who should be in Lawrence for just one season in Stokes. Unlike Boozer and Flagg, Stokes won’t get the boost of being a hotshot freshman on a top-five team.
Jordan Smith Jr. will be another freshman stud for Arkansas.
Self’s former player, Bidunga, will have a bigger offensive role now in Louisville, but likely not enough to post the prerequisite numbers.
The most interesting option of this group is Yessoufou. The former Baylor product is now at St. John’s. The 6-foot-5 guard should be able to score more than Connecticut’s Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins, thus making him the best candidate in the Northeast region.
Tier 3 – Going Deep
- Silas Demary Jr. (40-1)
- Matas Vokietaitis (40-1)
- Juke Harris (40-1)
- Thijs De Ridder (42-1)
- Trey McKenney (45-1)
- Isaiah Johnson (49-1)
- Caleb Foster (50-1)
- Braylon Mullins (50-1)
- JT Toppin (50-1)
- Ivan Kharchenkov (50-1)
- Motiejus Krivas (50-1)
- Milan Momcilovic (50-1)
Tier 3 breakdown: This group features a lot of recognizable names with odds that don’t necessarily indicate they are currently true contenders for the award.
Toppin is back at Texas Tech after dealing with an ACL injury. Momcilovic made a lot of money in the transfer portal on his way to Kentucky, but being just a shooter, he doesn’t profile as a Wooden Award winner.
Of this group, Vokietaitis could find himself on the late-season watch list. The Longhorns should be a top-10 squad all year, and the 7-footer could play at the same pace and battle Haugh as the best big man in the SEC.
Early Action
Based on recent history, a bettor building a futures portfolio should add a ticket on at least one candidate in the top tier. Other than Oscar Tshiebwe (40-1 odds to start the season), this is where the winner likely resides.
Consider Blackwell to be that player. Based on the talent around him in the Duke system, he could reach a scoring number close to 24 points per game.
The Izzo factor and Carr may limit Fears from making the necessary jump of about five to six points per game. The same holds true for Haugh playing alongside Condon.
Mirkovic’s foot injury means there is no rush to back him.
A smaller play on a long shot could also be valuable as the season progresses.
At 40-1, a Vokietaitis ticket offers plenty of upside.
The Longhorns might be one of college basketball’s most talked-about teams this season, and if that happens, the big man could jump up the Wooden Award power rankings like Johni Broome did two seasons ago.
Look Around
Of all the college basketball futures boards posted by the national books, the Wooden Award is the one that offers proactive shoppers the most variance between odds. For example, other than Fears as the shortest shot, what Fanatics is offering is much different from DraftKings. While Blackwell is 12-1 at DK, Fanatics is listing his Duke teammate Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje as the Blue Devil with the lowest odds (15-1). Blackwell at Fanatics comes in at a very attractive 30-1.
