Comparing the 2026 Florida Gators to the 2024 UConn National Championship Team:
The Florida vs. UConn matchup is going to be one of college basketball’s most interesting storylines this season.
No, not just the December 9 contest between the two at Madison Square Garden as part of the Jimmy V Classic. This pair of 21st century bluebloods are competing against each other in a larger sense this season.
The Gators are looking to go back-to-back as national champions just like the Huskies did in 2023 and 2024. The first school to repeat with a title since 2007 when it was…Florida.
So now as the 2025-26 season begins, the Gators will look to wrestle back that honor.
Prior to Danny Hurley and friends winning their second straight crown, going back-to-back in today’s environment seemed improbable with players and coaches jumping around so much on a yearly basis.
Todd Golden enters the season in Gainesville with another elite roster and high expectations. Perhaps it could be Hurley in Indianapolis as the one who prevents Florida from winning it all again. Clearly the bookmakers over at DraftKings think there is a chance of that happening as both are priced near the top of the Make Final Four futures board (Purdue +205, Houston +235, Duke +300, UConn +360, Michigan +390, Florida +425).
As a way of gauging Florida’s chances of a second straight title, let’s analyze the Gators to see how they compare with the 2024 UConn squad that pulled off an accomplishment many experts doubted could happen in the transfer portal era.
Preseason Rankings
Even though UConn’s 2023-24 roster underwent plenty of change, Bart Torvik still ranked them in the preseason as No. 3 behind only Purdue and Kansas. The AP Poll had Connecticut as its No. 4 team.
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, UConn’s national championship odds on December 1st, 2023 were 15-1, exactly where DraftKings has Florida currently listed.
Torvik places this year’s Gators as his No. 5 team in the country. New-look Florida won’t have the services of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Will Richard and Denzel Aberdeen.
KenPom has them even higher at No. 2 behind only Houston – and ahead of Purdue (+900), the betting favorite to win a national championship. Evan Miyakawa has Florida at No. 4 with Haslametrics placing the Gators at No. 6.
Bookmakers and the analytic crowd are all in tune about Florida grading out as one of the best teams in the country.
Returning Minutes
According to KenPom’s Minutes Continuity variable, the 2024 Huskies were 42.5%, just slightly better than the D1 average. That wasn’t a hindrance in the national championship game against the Boilermakers with their 69.2% number, which was 11th-best in the country.
The overall minutes returning might not be as vital to repeat (for any type of title) as some handicappers may believe. The importance could be more on having a couple of players previously in the system ready to take on a larger role. For the 2024 Huskies, Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban filled the offensive and rebounding voids following the departure of Adama Sanoga, Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins.
During the first UConn national championship season, this group as a collective averaged 23.6 minutes, 8.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game.
Then the following season, their averages jumped to 29.0 minutes, 13.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.
In 2024, UConn brought in Cam Spencer, an established transfer, and freshman Stephon Castle, who helped keep the Huskies in the top tier of teams (around 10-12 of them) with a legitimate chance of winning a national championship.
Here is why there seems to be a strong connection between UConn and Florida – the Gators also have a key trio coming back.
Florida’s primary returning pieces of Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon will help lessen the losses of Clayton Jr., Martin, Richard and Aberdeen.
Last season, these three Gators averaged 22.7 minutes, 8.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game.
These numbers are almost identical to those UConn returners who then emerged. It appears
feasible that these Gators will be even better in 2026 with averages that should be around
15 points and 10 rebounds per game.
New Gators
In a comparative sense, the newcomers Florida is bringing in to help the returners is significantly better than UConn’s group. The Gators are welcoming 6-foot-3 Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and 6-foot-4 Xaivian Lee (Princeton) in the backcourt.
Florida also landed Alex Lloyd and CJ Ingram, both Top 40 recruits.
Golden had a great roster last year; he has an even better one for 2026.
Going pro
Another criterion handicapping national championship futures is quantifying the number of future NBA players on the roster.
UConn 2023 team: 5 NBA players
UConn 2024 team: 4 NBA players
Florida 2025 team: 3 (at least) NBA players
Florida 2026 team: Condon, Chinyelu, Haugh, Fland, Lee, Lloyd, and Ingram are all considered NBA prospects
Prevailing style
A powerful indicator of a team’s national championship potential is whether it resides within KenPom’s Top 20 for both offense and defense.
Here is an interesting aspect of this combination of elite offense and defense, for the past 11 seasons, every national championship team ranked slightly higher on offense than defense.
The last champ to rank higher on defense than offense? Well, that was UConn’s out of nowhere 2014 team.
From a futures handicapping perspective, a team’s superior ability to score (while playing great defense) is a determining factor. That is why trying to predict a back-to-back winner is focused on Florida not Houston.
Based on this, the Gators must score like they did last season. With the addition of Fland and his comparable skills to Clayton Jr., along with Lee’s ability to shoot from behind the arc (36.6 3P% in 2025), that should not be an issue.
Coaching
Hurley was in his fourth season as the Huskies coach when they won their second straight title in 2024. Golden is entering his fourth season in Gainesville.
Both coaches showed considerable jumps in win totals in Year 2 and 3. Hurley’s 2024 team ended the season with a 37-3 record, last season Florida went 36-4.
In Hurley’s first three seasons with the Huskies, his resume didn’t include a regular season conference title. Then came UConn’s 2024 Big East title.
Golden has yet to win an SEC regular season title. This season the Gators are perched atop the SEC regular season odds board at +230, joined closely by Kentucky +340 and Arkansas +475.
As for assistant coaches, UConn’s core of Kimani Young, Tom Moore and Luke Murray all returned to Hurley’s staff after the first national championship.
Golden enters this season with both of his associate head coaches, Carlin Hartman and Korey McCray, back on the bench. Kevin Hovde did leave his assistant position for the head coaching job at Columbia. He is replaced by Dave Klatsky.
Early season travel
The defending national champion is always a valuable commodity for tournament promoters.
Those events can generate plenty of revenue and recognition for a team, however early season miles far away from campus can be a determinant later in the year. The 2024 Huskies advantageously played some early season tournament games at nearby Madison Square Garden. Their biggest travel came with a trip to Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas followed by a mid-December game against Gonzaga in Seattle.
Florida will be putting some miles on its chartered flights. The Gators open the season on November 3 in Las Vegas against Arizona and later that month a pair of games in San Diego. December will also be time away from home with games at Duke, at MSG against UConn, then back south to Miami for the Orange Bowl Classic.
Final thoughts
Here might be the best way a bettor can use this comparison between UConn’s 2024 team and the current Florida Gators. Don’t immediately fade the Gators because they won it last year and teams traditionally don’t repeat come the Final Four. The loss of Clayton Jr. and others has been more than accounted for.
Based on this analysis, the 2026 Florida team appears better than the Huskies group that repeated. This year’s Gators team is also – on paper – better than last season’s winner.
So if bettors want to back the Gators because they believe they are better than Purdue or Houston, then make that wager.
If bettors want to immediately put a line through the Gators since they won it all last year, think twice about that logic.
