Duke vs. Siena Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, Duke vs. Siena is the first-round game with a trip to the second round on the line.
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How to Watch Duke vs. Siena
When: Thursday, March 19th
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina
Watch: TBD
Odds for Duke vs. Siena
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Duke -27.5 (-110), Siena +27.5 (-110)
Total: Over 136.5 (-115), Under 136.5 (-105)
Duke vs. Siena Prediction & Preview
The Blue Devils get about as comfortable a first-round draw as a No. 1 seed could hope for, and that’s not a slight against the Saints — it’s just the reality of what this matchup is. Jon Scheyer has done something remarkable at Duke in four years: made deeper tourney runs with each passing season. Year 1, a No. 5 seed bowing out in the second round. Year 2, a No. 4 seed reaching the Elite Eight. Last year, a No. 1 seed making the Final Four. Now Scheyer runs it back as a No. 1 seed again, and if the pattern holds, you know where this is headed. He certainly has the roster for it.
Duke has been among the nation’s highest-ranked teams all season on both ends of the floor, sitting at or near the top in adjusted defensive efficiency and comfortably inside the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Cameron Boozer has been a double-double machine all year, and while his supporting cast has dealt with some nagging injury concerns — Patrick Ngongba, the 6-foot-11 force in the middle, was in a walking boot late in the season and missed the ACC Tournament, and Caleb Foster, a 40% 3-point shooter, has a fractured foot — they won the ACC Tournament anyway. That tells you something about the depth of this program. The only persistent wart on an otherwise elite profile is that Duke spent a chunk of the season outside the top 100 in 3-point percentage, but they’re a top-20 team in 2P% and 3P% defense and one of the most lethal inside-the-arc offenses in the country. This version of Scheyer’s team also forces the most turnovers he’s had in four seasons at the helm. Extra possessions are currency in March, and Duke has plenty of it.
Now enter Gerry McNamara’s Siena Saints, dancing for the first time since 2010 when Fran McCaffery was running the show in Albany. Technically the program earned a berth in 2020 before COVID wiped it out, but this is their first real tournament game in over 15 years, and McNamara deserves credit for getting them here while also being a head coaching candidate at his alma mater Syracuse. That said, the Saints are going to face a brutal stylistic mismatch from the opening tip.
The most important number to understand about Siena is possessions. Their three MAAC Tournament games were played to 60, 64, and 64 possessions — and their regular season included outings of just 54 and 63. This is a team that plays at a glacial pace and dares you to score 2-point buckets against them. That’s not a terrible strategy for survival in the MAAC. Against Duke’s offense, it’s going to be a very long night. It goes without saying that Scheyer’s team thrives on the extra possessions created by their defense, so even Siena’s one built-in advantage — slowing the game to a crawl — gets neutralized by the Blue Devils’ ability to create turnovers and manufacture possessions.
The offensive profile makes it worse. Siena couldn’t crack the top 200 in eFG% against a schedule that ranked in the 330s on Bart Torvik and the 340s on KenPom. They’re one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the Field of 68, which is a notable data point considering McNamara himself shot 35.4% from three over four years at Syracuse. Their Rim & 3 Rate sits just above 70%, meaning they take a ton of mid-range shots — a losing proposition against anyone in this field, let alone a top-flight defensive unit. With Antonio Chandler ineligible (he led the team in dunks with 22), Siena has had to lean even harder on those tough twos with even less punch.
The pace and the poor shooting are the two things that will define this game. Duke will force more possessions than Siena wants, convert efficiently inside the arc where the Saints are most vulnerable defensively, and take care of business in the first round.
Estimated Score: TBD.
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