Duke vs. TCU Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, Duke vs. TCU is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Duke vs. TCU
When: TBD p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21st
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina
Watch: TBD
Odds for Duke vs. TCU
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Duke -12.5 (-108), TCU +12.5 (-112)
Total: Over 137.5 (-110), Under 137.5 (-110)
Duke vs. TCU Prediction & Preview
No. 16 Siena put a real scare in Duke in the opening round. The Saints actually led by as many as 13 points in the game, and the team had an 11-point lead at halftime. Jon Scheyer was ultimately able to get his guys to settle down, and Duke ended up escaping with a 71-65 win. However, had Syracuse legend Gerry McNamara, now Siena’s coach, not played all of his starters 40 minutes, his guys might not have run out of gas in the final five minutes. That might have meant another upset of a 16 over a 1, which was once unimaginable — and seems even more unlikely in today’s college basketball landscape, where the top programs in the country can pay to bring in elite talent.
Duke now has to turn around and answer an important question. Did the Blue Devils simply overlook the Saints, or was that a sign of things to come with Duke playing high-pressure games without Caleb Foster? The Blue Devils are undoubtedly better than they showed in Round 1, but I still tend to think it’s the latter. That said, TCU might be getting too many points here, and a small part of me thinks the Horned Frogs are live to win this one.
Foster wasn’t exactly a star for this Duke team, but he was a reliable rotation guard that shot 40.2% from 3. Without him, along with center Patrick Ngongba II, who could also miss this game, Scheyer just has a very thin rotation. Also, without Foster’s ability to space the floor, the court shrinks significantly for Cameron Boozer, who had 22 points and 13 rebounds against Siena but shot 36.4% from the floor in doing so.
It’s just a little easy for defenses to pay close attention to Boozer, forcing other guys to beat them. And TCU is a very good defensive team, as the Horned Frogs are a top-30 group when looking at Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (99.2 heading into the first round). This is a group that can really turn you over, so Duke’s guards will be under a lot of pressure. The Horned Frogs are also good at defending without fouling, so they likely won’t allow the Blue Devils to get easy points at the line. On top of that, TCU is a solid rebounding team, so Duke won’t control the glass the way it did against Siena.
TCU is just going to have to prove that it can score efficiently enough to really make Duke sweat. The Horned Frogs might have good defensive numbers, but they’re simply average offensively. However, the team is 11-5 both straight-up and against the spread in postseason games under Jamie Dixon, so the veteran coach tends to find a way in key games. TCU’s three-headed monster at forward, which includes David Punch, Xavier Edmonds, and Micah Robinson, should also find some success in this game. That said, if somebody like Jayden Pierre or Liutauras Lelevicius can step things up on the perimeter, the Horned Frogs might be able to pull this off.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
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