Early March Madness Best Bets from Mike Somich:
March Madness has arrived, and with it, there is a buffet of betting options that we have never seen before. Each year, there are new ways to attack this tournament as the menu continues to expand.
March Madness Elite Eight Parlay
I love the fact that you can now parlay some of these teams together to make the Sweet 16, Elite Eight or Final Four to boost up the payout for likely outcomes. When you are looking at this style of bet, it’s important to look at the paths and possible opponents. Any time an upset is likely, it adds value to the teams in the later rounds. Two teams jumped out to me in the Elite 8 market.
Duke’s top half of the East bracket drew very weak, especially on the defensive side. Both Baylor and Mississippi State pose a minimal threat to this Duke team, and the Sweet 16 match of either Oregon or Arizona does not possess a top defensive team to slow Duke down. Nor would I be shocked if this 4/5 grouping resulted in an upset.
Similarly, Houston draws favorable second-round matchups against either Gonzaga or Georgia and then the winner of Clemson and Purdue. They will have the best offense and defense in every matchup and, like Duke, avoid having any high-ranking SEC school in their section of the bracket.
The bet: Duke + Houston to make the Elite 8 +117
I love the draw for St John’s as well. They would get an underachieving Kansas squad or low-end SEC school in Arkansas in the second round before taking on Missouri or Texas Tech to make the Elite Eight. I feel Missouri is live, but we will see if they can make it to this point.
Michigan State also drew well in the bottom half of the South. Iowa State is the worst of any Top 4 seed in the tournament, and no one in the bottom half of that region is scary.
The Bet: Duke/Houston/St John’s/Michigan St make Elite 8 +1521
To Reach the Sweet 16
Love the price on Grand Canyon in a wide open section of the West region. When playing these 12 or 13 seeds to make the Sweet 16, it’s important to note the second-round matchup. If you believe that both the 12 and 13 seeds are live, there is almost always going to be value in the Sweet 16 bet since the price generally factors in the higher-seeded teams winning.
Grand Canyon is a deep, veteran team with length that can score and defend. They drew a first-round opponent in Maryland who has had highs but can struggle to score at times and is a younger squad.
The 12-seeded Colorado St is actually favored over #5 Memphis in the other matchup, so there is not a world-beater in this grouping.
The Bets: Grand Canyon +900 to reach the Sweet 16
Grand Canyon +10.5
A money line sprinkle (+440) in Round 1 as well.
All eyes will be on the SEC in this tournament after locking in a record-setting 14 bids. You must assume there will be one or two lower-ranked SEC teams who have success in this tournament. Ole Miss is set up well to do so. They are a Top-30 team on both sides of the ball who do not turn it over.
Moreover, they are in the same quadrant at #3 Iowa State, who I am excited to fade. After a hot start to the season, they struggled down the stretch with an 8-7 record and became very turnover-prone.
The Bet: Ole Miss to make the Sweet 16 +220
