The March Madness bracket has been unveiled and the NCAA Tournament is officially upon us. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of First Round matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Baylor vs Mississippi State (-1.5, 143.5)
Baylor (19-14) is the 9-seed and just fell to Texas Tech 76-74 in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals but covered as 6.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Mississippi State (21-12) is the 8-seed and just lost to Missouri 85-73 in the second round of the SEC tournament, failing to cover as 3.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Baylor listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line flip to Mississippi State -1.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the “dog to favorite” line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Mississippi State.
At DraftKings, Mississippi State is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Mississippi State is taking in 67% of spread bets and 99% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Bulldogs.
In an attempt to mitigate some risk, many pros have specifically played the Bulldogs on the moneyline (-135). At DraftKings, Mississippi State is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the Bulldogs to win straight up and advance.
Mississippi State has the better defensive efficiency (47th vs 58th), takes better care of the ball (39th vs 106th in turnover percentage) and forces more turnovers (74th vs 84%).
Colorado State (-2.5, 147.5) vs Memphis
Colorado State (25-9) is the 12-seed and just beat Boise State 69-56 to win the Mountain West tournament, easily winning outright as 1-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Memphis (29-5) is the 5-seed and just brushed aside UAB 84-72 to win the AAC tournament, cruising as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Colorado State listed as high as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have jumped on Memphis plus the points, dropping the Tigers down from +3.5 to +2.5. Some shops have even touched as low as +2. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on Memphis.
At Circa, Memphis is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by one point (74-73), which provides actionable value on the Tigers +2.5.
Memphis has a big edge in terms of offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 26%). The Tigers also have the better defensive efficiency (40th vs 49th) and force more turnovers (72nd vs 202nd).
Colorado State is likely to be a trendy “12 over 5” upset pick, which provides some contrarian value to fade the masses and grab Memphis plus the points.
Grand Canyon vs Maryland (-10.5, 150.5)
Grand Canyon (26-7) is the 13-seed and just took down Utah Valley 89-82 to win the WAC tournament, covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Maryland (25-8) is the 4-seed and just fell to Michigan 81-80 in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Maryland listed as an 11.5-point neutral site favorite. Wiseguys seem to think this opener was a bit high and have pounced on Grand Canyon plus the points, dropping the Lopes down from +11.5 to +10.5. Many shops are juicing up Grand Canyon +10.5 (-115), signaling a possible further fall down to +10.
At DraftKings, Grand Canyon is receiving 63% of spread bets and a whopping 90% of spread dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Grand Canyon has the better offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 31%), forces more turnovers (30th vs 39th) and limits their opponents to a better 2-point field goal percentage (25th vs 53rd).
Grand Canyon also has more NCAA Tournament experience. As a 12-seed, the Lopes upset 5-seed Saint Mary’s 75-66 in last year’s opening round of March Madness. Grand Canyon returns four of the five starters from that game. Meanwhile, Maryland missed the NCAA Tournament last year.
