The March Madness Bracket has officially been unveiled and the NCAA Tournament kicks off tomorrow with a pair of First Four games to choose from. In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of First Round matchups later in the week using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Thursday 7:35 p.m. ET: Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s (-3.5, 147.5)
Texas A&M (21-11) is the 10-seed and just got blown out by Oklahoma 83-63 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, losing outright as 2-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Saint Mary’s (27-5) is the 7-seed and just came up short against Santa Clara 76-71 in the WCC Tournament semifinal, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Saint Mary’s listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Saint Mary’s creep up from -2.5 to -3.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, if the tickets are split you wouldn’t expect to see the line move because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Saint Mary’s minus the points.
At DraftKings, Saint Mary’s is taking in 50% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, Saint Mary’s is receiving 80% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Gaels.
Ken Pom has Saint Mary’s winning by three points (76-73). He also has the Gaels ranked higher (24th vs 39th).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing Saint Mary’s on the moneyline at -160.
Saint Mary’s has the better offensive efficiency (43rd vs 49th), defensive efficiency (19th vs 41st), offensive rebound percentage (15th vs 116th), three-point shooting (13th vs 47th), free-throw shooting (1st vs 148th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (18th vs 143rd).
The Gaels also enjoy a three-day rest advantage, having last played on March 9th while the Aggies last played on March 12th.
Thursday 9:45 p.m. ET: Saint Louis vs Georgia (-2.5, 169.5)
Saint Louis (28-5) is the 9-seed and just lost a heartbreaker to Dayton 70-69 in the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinal, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (22-10) is the 8-seed and just fell to Ole Miss 76-72 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, losing outright as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Once again, the public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this virtual 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Georgia move up from -1.5 to -2.5. This signals smart money laying the points with the Bulldogs.
At DraftKings, Georgia is taking in 49% of spread bets but a hefty 77% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Bulldogs.
Ken Pom has Georgia winning by two points (86-84). He also has the Bulldogs ranked higher (32nd vs 41st).
As a result, bettors looking to gain some added cushion may prefer a Georgia moneyline play at -150.
Georgia has the better offensive efficiency (16th vs 51st), offensive rebound percentage (48th vs 161st), free-throw shooting (67th vs 104th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (32nd vs 230th) and force more turnovers on defense (77th vs 219th).
Georgia also enjoys a two-day rest advantage, having last played on March 12th while Saint Louis last played on March 14th.
Friday 10:10 p.m. ET: Missouri vs Miami (-1.5, 147.5)
Missouri (20-12) is the 10-seed and just fell to Kentucky 78-72 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, failing to cover as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Miami (25-8) is the 7-seed and just got rolled by Virginia 84-62 in the ACC Tournament semifinal, failing to cover as 3.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Hurricanes laying short chalk, as Miami is being juiced up -1.5 (-115 or -120) with a few other books touching -2 or even -2.5 at times. We have never seen this line get down to -1 or lower.
Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has come down in favor of the Hurricanes minus the points.
At DraftKings, Miami is taking in 58% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars, indicating slight Pro and Joe public support but also respected sharp action in their favor.
Ken Pom has Miami winning by three points (77-74). He also has the Hurricanes ranked higher (31st vs 52nd).
With this in mind, bettors looking to gain some extra wiggle room may prefer a Hurricanes moneyline play at -130.
Miami has the better offensive efficiency (33rd vs 50th), defensive efficiency (38th vs 78th), offensive rebound percentage (17th vs 38th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (150th vs 268th) and force more turnovers on defense (82nd vs 183rd).
