The NCAA Tournament goes on hiatus until Thursday when March Madness resumes with the Sweet 16. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of Sweet 16 matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET: Iowa vs Nebraska (-1.5, 133.5)
Iowa (23-12) is the 9-seed and just shocked Florida 73-72 in the second round, winning outright as 10.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Nebraska (28-6) is the 4-seed and just took down Vanderbilt 74-72 in the second round, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and 60% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cornhuskers.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Nebraska fall from -3 to -1.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Iowa plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Hawkeyes despite the public backing the Cornhuskers.
Iowa offers notable “bet against the public value,” as the Hawkeyes are only receiving 40% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on TBS.
At Circa, Iowa is taking in only 38% of spread bets but a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of wiseguy Vegas money backing the dog plus the points.
Sharps have also shown interest in Iowa winning straight up, as the Hawkeyes are receiving 42% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings.
Iowa has the better offensive efficiency (25th vs 52nd), effective field goal percentage (18th vs 27th), free-throw shooting (39th vs 75th) and force more turnovers on defense (15th vs 41st).
The Hawkeyes offer additional betting system value as a conference dog (both teams hail from the Big Ten), with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points historically.
Thursday 9:45 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Arizona (-8.5, 167.5)
Arkansas (28-8) is the 4-seed and just edged High Point 94-88 in the second round but failed to cover as 12.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona (34-2) is the 1-seed and just beat Utah State 78-66 in the second round, covering as 11.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as high as a 9.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought this line was a bit high and have sided with Arkansas plus the points, dropping the Razorbacks from +9.5 to +8.5, with several shops reaching as low as +8 or even +7.5.
At DraftKings, Arkansas is receiving 64% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arkansas is taking in 71% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Razorbacks plus the points.
Ken Pom has Arizona winning by eight points (87-79), which provides an edge on Arkansas plus the hook (+8.5).
Arkansas has the better offensive efficiency (25th vs 44th), three-point shooting (10th vs 44th), free-throw shooting (81st vs 170th) and also commit fewer turnovers on offense (1st vs 77th).
Arkansas has value as a “dog who can score” system match (90 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or earn a back-door cover.
The Razorbacks enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on March 21st while Arizona last played on March 22nd.
Pros are also expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 165.5 to 167.5 or even 168 across the market.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 50% of bets but 70% of dollars, a sharp split in favor of a shootout.
Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard, with Arizona ranking 4th in offensive efficiency and Arkansas 5th.
Friday 9:45 p.m. ET: Michigan State vs Connecticut (-1.5, 136.5)
Michigan State (27-7) is the 3-seed and just brushed aside Louisville 77-69 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Connecticut (31-5) is the 2-seed and just took down UCLA 73-57 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have pounced on the Huskies laying short chalk, driving Connecticut up from -1 to 1.5, with several shops inching up to -2 or even -2.5.
Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of the Huskies minus the points.
At DraftKings, Connecticut is taking in 47% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. At Circa, Connecticut is receiving 43% of spread bets but a hefty 79% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Huskies.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves in the event a close game may prefer a Huskies moneyline play at -135.
Connecticut has the better effective field goal percentage (35th vs 66th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (8th vs 53rd), force more turnovers on defense (99th vs 297th) and allow fewer three-pointers on defense (28th vs 104th).
Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has been bet down from 137.5 to 136.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 40% of bets but a lopsided 85% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the under.
Both teams play stifling defense, with Connecticut ranking 11th in defensive efficiency and Michigan State 13th.
