The second round of the NCAA Tournament is in the books and now bettors get a few days off to prepare for the Sweet 16. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Mississippi vs Michigan State (-3.5, 143.5)
Mississippi (24-11) is the 6-seed and just upset Iowa State 91-78 in the second round, winning outright as 5.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Michigan State (29-6) is the 2-seed and just fended off New Mexico 71-63, covering as 6.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Michigan State listed as high as a 4-point neutral site favorite. Early sharp money has scooped up the points with Mississippi, dropping the Rebels from +4 to +3.5. Some shops are even down to +3.
At DraftKings, Michigan State is receiving 74% of spread bets. This lopsided bet split is notable because it signals heavy public support for the Spartans, yet sharp reverse line movement on Ole Miss plus the points.
At Circa, Mississippi is taking in 27% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating the bigger, sharper wagers in their favor.
Ken Pom has Michigan State winning by three points (73-70). This provides actionable value on Ole Miss plus the hook (+3.5).
Mississippi has the better three-point shooting (35% vs 31%) and takes better care of the ball (3rd in turnover percentage vs 138th). The Rebels also force more turnovers on defense (33rd vs 245th).
Kentucky vs Tennessee (-4.5, 146)
Kentucky (24-11) is the 3-seed and just upset Illinois 84-75 in the second round, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Tennessee (29-7) is the 2-seed and just held off UCLA 67-58, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with Kentucky plus the points, dropping the Wildcats from +5 to +4.5.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is receiving 58% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kentucky is taking in 50% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Wildcats.
Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by five points (76-71).
Kentucky has the better offensive efficiency (11th vs 17th), effective field goal percentage (56% vs 53%), three-point shooting (37% vs 35%) and take better care of the ball (36th in turnover percentage vs 110th).
Kentucky has additional value as a “dog who can score” system match (85 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover. The Wildcats also have value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Kentucky went 2-0 against Tennessee in the regular season, winning 78-73 and 75-64.
Maryland vs Florida (-6.5, 154.5)
Maryland (27-8) is the 4-seed and just beat Colorado State 72-71 on a buzzer beater in the second round but failed to cover as 8.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Florida (32-4) is the 1-seed and just fought off Connecticut 77-75 but failed to cover as 9.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on the Gators, steaming Florida up from -5.5 to -6.5.
At DraftKings, Florida is receiving 82% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Gators minus the points.
Ken Pom has Florida winning by six points (81-75).
Florida has the better offensive efficiency (2nd vs 23rd), offensive rebound percentage (5th vs 149th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (5th vs 21st).
