Arizona vs. Purdue Prediction
This Arizona vs. Purdue matchup came about thanks to two very different outcomes. Purdue needed a bucket at the buzzer to beat Texas 79-77, while Arizona shot the lights out against Arkansas and played with a substantial lead throughout most of Thursday evening. The biggest lead for the Boilermakers was seven points. Arizona led by more than that pretty much all game. Matt Painter’s team should provide more resistance, but now that Tommy Lloyd advanced past the Sweet 16 for the first time, is this simply the year for the Wildcats?
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How to Watch Arizona vs. Purdue
When: 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, March 28
Where: SAP Center in San Jose, CA
Watch: TBS/truTV
Odds for Arizona vs. Purdue
(odds as Thurs. Mar. 26, 9:30 p.m. PT)
Spread: Arizona -6.5 (-105), Purdue +6.5 (-115)
Total: Over 152.5 (-110), Under 152.5 (-110)
Arizona vs. Purdue Prediction & Preview
Lloyd had four Sweet 16 exits and a first-round loss in five NCAA Tournament appearances, but he’s gotten over the hump. That was a knock on Painter for a while as well, as he was notorious for squandering good teams in the Big Dance until 2024 when his Boilermakers lost in the National Championship Game to UConn. Painter did have a previous Elite Eight appearance, so this will be his third trip.
This is going to be a contrast of styles. Arizona likes to get up and down the floor and get the ball inside. Purdue plays a much more methodical style of basketball and over 40% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc. Arizona has one of the lowest 3P Rates in the nation. Against the Razorbacks, getting badly outscored from deep wasn’t really a concern because John Calipari’s team wasn’t bombing away from the perimeter. They, too, liked to get inside by slashing to the basket as much as possible with their two freshman guards.
Purdue is a more experienced team with Braden Smith, Trey Kauffman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Oscar Cluff. The Boilermakers are also an interesting matchup here because they take and make a lot of mid-range jumpers. What has made Arizona so spectacular on defense is that they don’t let opponents near the rim. Fewer than 29% of shots against the Wildcats D came on the interior. That was almost a hallmark of Purdue’s defense, so this could be a jump shot contest, with their shot share against on Close Twos at just 29.1%.
Despite the low rate of high-percentage looks, Purdue still had major issues defensively. Opponents have shot better than 42% from the mid-range against them and better than 34% from 3. In fact, the Boilermakers are really fortunate to have had such a low shot share on Close Twos because opponents convert at better than 63%. Not only does Arizona not let the other team get to the rim, but on the off chance that they do, they shoot under 53%.
It’s clear that Arizona has a really big advantage on defense in this game. Offensively, it will come down to the 3-ball for Purdue. Along with a much higher shot volume than the Wildcats on 3s, Purdue brings a top-15 3P% into the Elite Eight. They’re also a top-20 offense on 2s. Arizona’s offensive value comes from grabbing rebounds and taking care of the ball. They’re a very good shooting team from a national standpoint, but clearly make shots at a lower rate than Purdue, shooting 2% lower on 3s and about 3% lower on 2s. That wasn’t the case on Thursday, but the full body of work says that was an exception and not the complete norm.
Is that enough of a difference when considering how strong the Wildcats are on defense? That’ll be the question to ponder until this game tips off on Saturday night.
Estimated Score: TBD
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