Illinois vs. Iowa Prediction
Ben McCollum may not be in Iowa City long. Getting to the Elite Eight for this Illinois vs. Iowa matchup in his first season at the helm and just his second season as a head coach is remarkably impressive. McCollum was the head coach at Drake last season and brought a good chunk of that team with him, including standout Bennett Stirtz, one of the 10 most important players in the nation per Bart Torvik’s PORPATAGU!, which is Points Over Replacement Player Per Adjusted Game At That Usage. It’s a long acronym to say that he’s a stud and his 20 points against Nebraska are a big reason why the Hawkeyes are here to face the Illini. Six Big Ten teams made the Sweet 16. Two will now meet for a spot in the Final Four.
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How to Watch Illinois vs. Iowa
When: 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 28th
Where: Toyota Center in Houston, TX
Watch: TBS/truTV
Odds for Illinois vs. Iowa
(odds as of Thurs., Mar. 26 at 9:30 p.m. PT)
Spread: Illinois -6.5 (-115), Iowa +6.5 (-105)
Total: Over 140.5 (-108), Under 140.5 (-112)
Illinois vs. Iowa Prediction & Preview
Stirtz isn’t the only valuable player for the Hawkeyes, but he’s certainly the most talked about. He’ll have to be really good here because Iowa did not have much success in the one meeting against Illinois during the regular season. In their home barn, the Hawkeyes were just 27-of-64 from the floor and trailed by as many as 17 in the second half. The six-point loss was a bit misleading, as the game really wasn’t that close for most of it.
That should give the Illini some confidence, not that they need more of it after beating Penn and VCU by 56 combined points and then taking down a very good Houston squad. Brad Underwood, like others in the Sweet 16, has had some difficulties making deep tournament runs with good teams. He had one previous Elite Eight appearance coming into this year’s tournament and all of his other appearances resulted in first-weekend exits. Given what McCollum has done to elevate this Hawkeyes crew this season and take 31-win Drake to the second round, the mismatch in the stats and the talent may not play as much of a role.
Both of these teams have an excellent offensive profile and three huge differences on defense. Iowa actually boasts a top-20 eFG% and Illinois is inside the top 40, with 3P% being the reason for the higher ranking for the Hawkeyes. Illinois takes better care of the ball, is more efficient on 2s, and should have a significant offensive rebounding edge.
Defensively, Iowa has forced a turnover over 20% of the time, but that’s really all that they’ve done well without the ball. They entered the NCAA Tournament among the worst teams in 2P% defense in the field and sit right around the national average in 3P% defense. Illinois, meanwhile, is a top-50 defense in 2P% and 3P%. So the Illini definitely do a better job of challenging shots and protecting the rim, which is hardly surprising given that definitely have the height advantage most nights. What Illinois doesn’t do is force turnovers. They actually have the lowest TO% in the nation.
So, that’s really your matchup. If Illinois takes care of the basketball, they should win this game and cover the spread because they are better in most shooting categories on both ends of the floor. They are also the much stronger team on the glass. Can McCollum be a big enough factor to help his Hawkeyes overcome those things? He has to this point and his team is certainly battle-tested in close games, whereas Underwood’s Illini haven’t really had to sweat late in the game in the tourney.
Estimated Score: TBD
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