UConn vs. Illinois Prediction
UConn led Duke 2-0 in the first minute of the Elite Eight game last Sunday. They didn’t lead again until there were 0.3 seconds left following Braylon Mullins’ game-winning 3-pointer off of a Blue Devils turnover. The Huskies trailed by as many as 19, trailed by 15 at halftime, and by nine with under five minutes left. Dan Hurley’s team ran into eventual champion Florida in the second round last year. That’s the only team that has beaten them in the NCAA Tournament since 2022. Now we get UConn vs. Illinois, as the Illini, who just broke a two-decade Final Four drought, are favored to advance to the National Championship Game.
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How to Watch UConn vs. Illinois
When: 6:09 pm ET on Saturday, April 4
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
Watch: TBS
Odds for UConn vs. Illinois
(odds as Sun. Mar. 29, 4:35 p.m. PT)
Spread: Illinois -2.5 (-110), UConn +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Illinois -135, UConn +114
Total: Over 140.5 (-110), Under 140.5 (-115)
UConn vs. Illinois Prediction & Preview
UConn went scorched earth on everybody during their 2023 and 2024 NCAA Tournament runs. That has not been the case this year, as they beat Michigan State by four in the Sweet 16 and then squeaked out that one-point win over Duke in the Elite Eight. Illinois’ closest win has been by 10 points and that was against Houston in the Sweet 16, a game that looked more like a Final Four matchup on paper.
The body of work for the Illini has been thoroughly impressive. They beat Iowa by 12 in the Elite Eight and went just 3-of-17 from 3. But, they dominated on the offensive glass to get some extra chances and really imposed their will physically in that game. After this run, the Illini should get some NIL money from Windex for the way that they’ve won the rebounding battle in all of their games. As a result, they’ve scored 1.545, 1.152, 1.112, and 1.295 points per possession in their games. The Illini have also played excellent defense without fouling, which was exactly what they did during the regular season. Iowa was 12-of-14 at the free throw line this past weekend, scoring only 47 points from the floor. Opponents in the first three games against Illinois had 10 total free throw attempts.
This seems like the right sort of combustible situation for Hurley to go off, given that it doesn’t seem like his team will benefit from a lot of whistles. The Huskies have played stiffer competition in the tourney thus far, as they were placed in a very strong East Region. They’ve scored 1.253, 1.159, 1.054, and 1.163 points per possession, while allowing 1.085, .905, .991, and 1.147. After thriving on the glass in the wins over Furman and UCLA, the tables turned against Michigan State and Duke and it does seem like it will be an area of concern in this game as well.
Of the two Final Four games, this one seems like the higher-variance matchup. Nearly half of Illinois’ shots this season have been 3-pointers. They’ve held opponents to just a 27.7% shot share on Close Twos, so UConn, who comes in with a 40.5% 3P Rate, might have to take more jump shots in this game than they’d like. Mullins hit the enormous triple to beat Duke, but the Huskies were just 5-of-23 from 3 and are 27-of-93 (29.0%) in their four NCAAT wins. The four opponents for Illinois have all taken at least 30 3-pointers and collectively shot just 29%.
It also needs to be said that UConn protected the rim very well. While they allowed a much higher shot share on Close Twos than Illinois, opponents only shot 50.9% on what are usually very high-percentage looks. So, like I said, this game likely becomes a jump shot competition at Lucas Oil Stadium, where distance shooting could be tough given the sightlines and the depth perception in an NFL venue.
These two teams also play well below the national average from a tempo standpoint. Illinois also has the lowest turnover percentage on defense in the country, so fast-break points and transition opportunities are likely to be limited.
Estimated Score: TBD
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