Florida vs. Houston March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup in the National Championship Game, the Florida Gators take on the Houston Cougars for the opportunity to win the NCAA Tournament.
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How to Watch Florida vs. Houston
When: 8:50 p.m. ET on Monday, April 7th
Where: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
Watch: CBS
Odds for Florida vs. Houston
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -1.5 (-110), Houston +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 142 (-110), Over 142 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Florida vs. Houston Matchup Page (coming soon)
Florida vs. Houston Preview & Prediction
Duke was starting to feel a lot like the UConn teams that steamrolled through the NCAA Tournament the last two years. But, then, they ran into their first close game against a tenacious Houston Cougars crew that erased a 14-point deficit with just around eight minutes left to win in dramatic, and truly stunning, fashion. The storyline will be that it was an epic meltdown from Duke, so we’ll see how that impacts the line movement for the National Championship Game. After all, some sportsbooks were as high as -10000 on Duke in-game.
The Florida Gators punched their ticket to the title game earlier in the day, as they beat conference rival Auburn for the second time. The Gators had some drama as well, as it was a one-point game with around four minutes left and they actually trailed by eight early in the second half. So, now we’ve seen these two teams in close, high-level games under the brightest lights and we should be in for a dandy on Monday.
The battle on the offensive glass will be a major key to this one. Eighteen offensive rebounds, including a massive one from Joseph Tugler in the final minute, played a huge role in Houston’s comeback win. Florida only had 12 against Auburn, but the Gators have been around the top five in ORB% all season long. Houston has been right around the top 10 for the majority of the season as well.
The other focal point here will be conversions at the rim. The offensive rebounds will help in that area, but it is worth noting that Houston has a shot share on Close Twos under 25%. They take a lot of jump shots, both mid-range 2s and 3s, so Florida will have to be defensively responsible on the perimeter. That hasn’t been a problem, as the Gators are a top-10 team by 3P% defense and held Auburn to 7-of-25 in the Final Four triumph.
Houston is no slouch defensively on the perimeter either, as opponents shot just around 30% against them this season to this point. They are also a top-five defense against 2-point shots, which is an upgrade of about 15 spots from where Florida ranked. The Gators are a very efficient offense on 2s and a top-70 offense on 3s. The Cougars will have their hands full once again versus a team of shot-makers, but they should be up to the task after holding the Blue Devils below 40% from the floor and allowed just one made field goal in the final 10:30 of the game.
Lastly, it should be noted that the difference between this Houston team and Houston teams of the past has been their 3-point shooting. The Cougars were 10-of-22 from deep in the upset win over Duke and have shot nearly 40% from 3 for the season. The offensive sets are still a little bit ugly and, as mentioned above, Houston can’t get to the rim frequently, but they can really shoot it from deep and they’ll have to do it again to cut down the nets.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
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