Florida vs. Iowa Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Florida vs. Iowa is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Florida vs. Iowa
When: 7:10 pm ET on Sunday, March 22
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida
Watch: TBS
Odds for Florida vs. Iowa
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -11.5 (-110), Iowa +11.5 (-110)
Total: Over 146.5 (-110), Under 146.5 (-110)
Florida vs. Iowa Prediction & Preview
A pretty good argument can be made that Iowa will have the best player on the floor in this game. Bennett Stirtz is an elite lead guard, capable of taking games over with his scoring and his playmaking. He also tends to play his best basketball on the biggest stages, so he’ll look forward to getting out there against Florida. And theoretically, with the way Iowa plays at a snail’s pace (361st in Adjusted Tempo), defends at a high level (35th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – 100.5), and shoots the 3-ball (35.5%), the Hawkeyes should have a slight chance of beating anyone. However, this feels like a brutal matchup for Ben McCollum’s group.
In doing some of my preview work for the tournament, I noted that Florida could run into some trouble in this tournament. However, it’ll take a team that can really shoot the heck out of the 3 to knock the Gators off. But that team also needs to have the size required to keep Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu from dominating around the basket. Iowa really doesn’t have that.
The Hawkeyes only have three key rotation pieces with any semblance of size, but the biggest one is Alvaro Folgueiras at 6’10” and 230 pounds. That’s not game-changing size. With that in mind, while I do like Iowa’s chances of winning the math battle in this game, I think there’s a real chance the Gators are just unstoppable around the rim.
The size also won’t just be a problem when Iowa is looking to guard Florida, the rebounding battle could be disastrous. The Gators are a top-10 team when it comes to both Offensive Rebound Rate (43.2%) and Defensive Rebound Rate (24.8%). Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are outside the top 150 in Offensive Rebound Rate (30.6%) and they’re just 70th in Defensive Rebound Rate (28.1%).
I should also note that Florida held opponents to 32.6% shooting from 3 beginning in January, and the team did a great job of running opponents off the line. From there, the Gators are excellent at funneling drivers to the basket, where they’re one of the best teams in college basketball when it comes to 2PT% Defense (45.2%).
All things considered, Iowa does some things at a very high level, and Stirtz is a player that could eventually be an awesome NBA guy. But you need to have some size and toughness to beat Florida, and I don’t think the Hawkeyes have it.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
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