Florida vs. Prairie View A&M Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Florida vs. Prairie View A&M is the first round game at 9:25 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20 with a trip to first round on the line.
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How to Watch Florida vs. Prairie View A&M
When: 9:25 pm ET on Friday, March 20
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL
Watch: TNT
Odds for Florida vs. Prairie View A&M
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -33.5 (-110), Prairie View A&M +33.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-110), Under 151.5 (-110)
Florida vs. Prairie View A&M Prediction & Preview
The reigning National Champs are looking to run it back, and this First Round matchup looks like one where Florida can start building momentum, but there are still some underlying concerns that make this team a bit more volatile than your typical defending champion.
The biggest issue for the Gators is one that hasn’t gone away all season: perimeter shooting. Florida is the only elite team in the field with a negative 3P% differential and has spent most of the year in the 300s in 3-point shooting. Even with solid 3-point defense, that’s a dangerous profile in a single-elimination format, where variance from beyond the arc can swing games quickly. The last team to win it all with that kind of statistical red flag was Kansas back in 1988, so history isn’t exactly on their side.
That being said, Florida has found ways to dominate in spite of it. Todd Golden’s team has been one of the best offenses in the country, largely because of its size and physicality. When you’re missing shots, it helps to have multiple 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-11 bodies crashing the glass, and the Gators have done that at an elite level. The struggles of Xaivian Lee from deep have certainly contributed to the team’s shooting woes, but this isn’t a roster built to rely solely on perimeter scoring.
Defensively, Florida has been outstanding, especially when you consider the level of competition in the SEC. After a 5-4 start that featured several close losses to high-level opponents, the Gators found their footing and ended up leading the conference in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency during league play. This is a team that has clearly improved over the course of the season, and that trajectory matters in March.
Prairie View A&M, meanwhile, is just happy to be here, but that doesn’t mean this is a team to completely dismiss. The Panthers are one of the more interesting stories in the field, going from a 5-22 team last season to a conference tournament champion that won four games in five days to punch its ticket. Byron Smith essentially rebuilt the roster from scratch, and the group found its rhythm at the right time, winning nine of its last 11 games, plus the First Four victory over Lehigh.
Context is important with a team like PVAMU. The full-season numbers are skewed by a brutal non-conference schedule filled with road “paycheck games” against high-major opponents, where the Panthers took their share of lopsided losses. They didn’t even play a Division I home game until January, so the late-season improvement is probably a more accurate reflection of what this team is now.
Still, this is a massive step up in class. Florida’s size, depth, and defensive intensity present problems that Prairie View hasn’t seen, even during its hot stretch. The Panthers’ path to competitiveness likely involves turning this into a chaotic game and hoping Florida’s 3-point shooting issues show up again in a big way.
Ultimately, this matchup is more about Florida than it is about Prairie View A&M. If the Gators play to their standard defensively and dominate the glass the way they have all season, they should control this game from start to finish. The concern, as always, is whether the shooting variance opens the door at any point, but barring an extreme outlier performance from deep, Florida has too many advantages across the board.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
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