Georgia vs. Saint Louis Prediction
In the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Georgia vs. Saint Louis is the first-round game at 9:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 19 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Georgia vs. Saint Louis
When: 9:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 19th
Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY
Watch: CBS
Odds for Georgia vs. Saint Louis
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Georgia -2.5 (-102), Saint Louis +2.5 (-118)
Total: Over 170.5 (-110), Under 170.5 (-110)
Georgia vs. Saint Louis Prediction & Preview
Georgia and Saint Louis represent two programs riding very different waves into this NCAA Tournament, but both arrive with something to prove and neither one is here just to take up a spot in the Field of 68.
The Bulldogs have been on a slow-burn rebuild under Mike White, and the progress is real. After making the Big Dance for just the second time since 2011 last year — only to get obliterated by an under-seeded Gonzaga team in the 8-9 game — Georgia came back with a more polished product in 2025-26. They finished with a winning record in SEC play for the first time since 2016, and the offense took a significant leap forward. The portal haul filled the void left by Asa Newell heading to the NBA and Silas Demary Jr. transferring to UConn, and if anything, the Bulldogs became more versatile and harder to guard. More shot attempts at the rim, better shooting percentages on both 2s and 3s, improved free throw shooting — it’s a cleaner offensive operation despite losing two of their best players.
The tradeoff is on defense, where Georgia has slipped noticeably. The Bulldogs finished 13th in 2P% defense and 14th in eFG% defense in the SEC, and the defensive rebounding has been a problem all season — almost certainly a side effect of wanting to push pace and get out in transition more. They stayed afloat defensively, but only barely cracking the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. Late wins at Kentucky and at home against Alabama showed there’s a ceiling-raiser in this group, but the seed line tells you most of what you need to know about how far the bracket expects them to go.
Saint Louis, meanwhile, is the feel-good story of the tournament field — and one that was denied its proper moment two years ago. Robbie Avila, the goggle-wearing, 6-foot-10 forward who looks like he was plucked out of a 1987 instructional video, was robbed of his national coming-out party when Indiana State fell in the MVC Tournament final to Drake in 2024 despite going 31-0 at one point. A program that statistically deserved a tournament bid never got one, and the basketball world was worse off for it. Now Avila has followed coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis, and the Billikens are back in the tourney for the first time since 2019, with Avila posting a ridiculous 62% on 2s and 42% on 3s.
The efficiency numbers across the board for Saint Louis are legitimately impressive. They’ve been a top-10 team in both 2P% and 3P% defense for most of the season, while also sitting near the top nationally in eFG% and 3P% on the offensive end. Signature wins over VCU and Santa Clara don’t jump off the page, but the underlying profile of this team — on both ends of the floor — earned its place in this bracket without much debate.
The concern with the Billikens is timing. They went 3-3 down the stretch of the regular season and only survived George Washington in the A-10 Tournament after trailing by 21 points before pulling off a furious comeback. They then lost to Dayton in the semis. Fatigue is a real possibility for a program making a long geographic haul as the westernmost team in the Atlantic-10, and stepping up in competition doesn’t make that any easier.
Georgia’s defense should theoretically have an easier time outside the SEC meat grinder, which could unlock even more of that offensive upside. But Saint Louis brings a matchup problem in Avila that the Bulldogs’ weak interior defense is ill-equipped to handle. The Billikens are the better team on paper. Whether they’ve got enough left in the tank to show it is the only real question worth asking.
Estimated Score: TBD
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