Gonzaga vs. Texas Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Gonzaga vs. Texas is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Texas
When: 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21
Where: Moda Center in Portland, OR
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Gonzaga vs. Texas
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Gonzaga -4.5 (-110), Texas +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110), Under 149.5 (-110)
Gonzaga vs. Texas Prediction & Preview
Gonzaga didn’t look great in a 73-64 win over Kennesaw State in the first round, but you never want to overreact to a single tournament performance. This is still a Zags team that finished 12th in the nation in KenPom’s Power Ratings, playing top-10 defense and riding the awesome interior play of big man Graham Ike on offense. That formula took Gonzaga far during the regular season, and Mark Few is now hoping it can get his group another win or two. If it does, the Zags could get big man Braden Huff, another incredible interior scorer, back from a knee injury. Then, all of a sudden, Gonzaga will look like a title contender.
Perhaps all of that isn’t relevant looking at this matchup with Texas, but it is absolutely crucial to remember that this is a top-15 team — with or without Huff. Why? Well, the oddsmakers only have Gonzaga laying 4.5 in this one, despite the fact that Texas isn’t even a top-40 team when looking at Bart Torvik. That’s a buy.
Texas was a good offensive team this year, and the Longhorns have looked sharp since the start of the tournament — which began with a First Four win over NC State. However, Gonzaga is built to slow down a team like this. The Bulldogs are a top-20 team when it comes to both 2PT% and 3PT% defense, they turn opponents over a ton, and they’re 11th in the nation in EFG% Defense (46.0%). I’m just not sure why we should expect Texas to light up Gonzaga, even with the Zags not playing at full strength.
I also strongly believe that Gonzaga’s offense is good enough to shred a weak Texas defense. Ike should dominate this game around the basket, and the Zags guards should enjoy this matchup. The Longhorns are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to applying pressure and forcing turnovers, so the Bulldogs backcourt should be able to settle in and get comfortable in this one.
I’d keep a close eye on freshman Mario Saint-Supery here. He had some really nice performances down the stretch, including a game in which he had 21 points and four assists against Santa Clara in the WCC Tournament finals. This is a game in which he should get some quality looks, and Gonzaga will be in great shape if he’s knocking them down. However, if it’s not him, the Zags have other players that can step up. And I can even see this being a good game for Tyon Grant-Foster. He has had his ups and downs this season, but he’s a big-time athlete and this is a Texas defense that can get a bit unorganized. Perhaps he can have his moment here.
Oddly enough, I also think Few’s tournament experience is big here. While he hasn’t yet won a national title, he has done way better in the tournament than Sean Miller has. That said, don’t be surprised if Few has Gonzaga looking like the more prepared team here.
Estimated Score: Gonzaga 77.2, Texas 71.1
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
