Hawaii vs. UC Irvine
Some may scoff at a night of college basketball that doesn’t feature any of the prominent teams from the major conferences, but there are a lot of good mid-major and low-major games on the slate. Three in particular really stand out with Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis , William & Mary vs. Elon, and the one previewed here featuring Hawaii vs. UC Irvine. All of those games bring something to the table tonight in their own ways, but it is always fascinating when the Rainbow Warriors come to the mainland and when the Anteaters have a tough test at home.
There is still a lot of time left for things to shake out in the Big West, but right now, Bart Torvik has Hawaii ranked about 30 spots ahead of UC Irvine and KenPom has about 25 spots worth of distance between the two, with UC San Diego in between. Our friends at CBB Analytics, where you can use the promo code VSIN30 for $30 off of a subscription, have Hawaii at 59.6% to be the No. 1 seed in the Big West Tournament, while UC Irvine has a 29.2% probability over 25,000 simulations.
Obviously the result of this game will change some things for the rankings sites and the seeding probability matrix, so this is a big one at the Bren Events Center and it is also the latest tip-off of the night.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 28, 6:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Hawaii vs. UC Irvine (-1.5, 137.5)
11 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
You know this is a big game when the World Wide Leader has a broadcast team on site, even if it is on ESPNU. For the night owls or us West Coasters in the best time zone, this should be some prime viewing. Both teams enter with 7-2 records in conference play and have played similar strengths of schedule thus far in Big West action. However, it is important to put Hawaii’s numbers in the proper context because Torvik has them with the 362nd-ranked non-conference schedule and KenPom has them second-to-last at 364th.
Games are grouped together in sets of two more often than not in the Big West, so this will be Hawaii’s third trip to the Continental U.S. They’ve soundly beaten inferior teams UC Riverside and Cal Poly, but have lost the second game of their road swings to UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara. Those teams are much closer to UC Irvine from a talent and ranking standpoint, especially the Tritons, who haven’t seemed to miss a beat with former head coach Eric Olen now doing damage in the Mountain West at New Mexico.
The Anteaters already made their trek out to Honolulu, falling short in a 67-66 decision on Jan. 10. The wildest statistic about that game is that the Anteaters only attempted eight 3-pointers, while Hawaii attempted 24. Despite the huge discrepancy in shot volume, Hawaii finishing +12 in 3s, the Anteaters were right there at the end with a chance to win.
To call that game a defensive struggle would be an understatement. It was played to 71 possessions with .942 points per possession for Hawaii and .928 PPP for UC Irvine. Collectively, the teams were 52-of-131 from the floor. The more shocking number is that they were collectively 44-of-99 on 2s in a game that featured 31 offensive rebounds. UC Irvine was 18-of-40 on shots at the rim, while Hawaii was 14-of-31.
The strong defensive efforts at the rim didn’t result in many free throw attempts, as there were only 28 total for the game. It’ll be interesting to see how this game is officiated and whether or not we see more free throw attempts with that kind of shot volume at the tin. The teams also combined for 20 blocked shots in that Jan. 10 affair.
That was a rough night for Hawaii’s second-leading scorer Dre Bullock (12.3 PPG), who only had four points on 2-of-11 shooting. Seven-footer Isaac Johnson, who leads the team with 12.9 PPG, had 15 points and five rebounds despite only playing 13 minutes due to foul trouble in that game. One injury of note for the Rainbow Warriors is that leading assist man Aaron Hunkin-Claytor has missed the last two games. He had 12 points and six assists in that first game and is out indefinitely.
UC Irvine may have an injury of their own here, as 7-footer Elijah Chol missed the last game. He normally doesn’t play a ton, but to match Hawaii’s size and interior presence, Chol played 27 minutes in the first game and had five points with eight rebounds and three blocks. I couldn’t find an update on him, but per CBB Analytics, the Anteaters’ pace with Chol on the floor is 66.7 possessions per 40 minutes and 69.7 possessions per 40 minutes without him.
The Anteaters offense goes as Jurian Dixon goes. The leading scorer with 15.6 PPG is also shooting 41.1% from 3. Derin Saran and Kyle Evans are also in double figures, but neither are distance-shooting threats. In true Eran Ganot fashion, the Rainbow Warriors concentrate heavily on running teams off the 3-point line, probably part of the reason why Dixon only had six points in 26 minutes in the first game.
Hawaii vs. UC Irvine Prediction
Both of these teams are so stingy on defense. They defend the rim very well and UC Irvine is actually the No. 1 team in the country in 2P% defense in conference games. But, Hawaii is the seventh-best 3P% defense in conference action, really the only area where the Anteaters offense has excelled offensively in Big West action, even if they don’t shoot a lot of 3s. Still, the Anteaters are at home here and really hung in for the first game, despite such a low output of 3-point shots and such a poor night finishing at the rim. Now at home, they should see improvement.
Pick: UC Irvine -1.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.
