Houston vs. Illinois Prediction
Houston vs. Illinois is a Sweet 16 game, but it’s more like an Elite Eight or a Final Four game. The tip-off at 10:05 p.m. ET on Thursday night represents our last game of the evening and perhaps saving the best for last. Houston is No. 4 for both Bart Torvik and KenPom, while Illinois is No. 6 for both gentlemen. For KenPom, it is the only top-10 battle in the Sweet 16 round and it will be a tough pill to swallow for the team that comes up short here, as both are legitimate national championship contenders.
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How to Watch Houston vs. Illinois
When: 10:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 26th
Where: Toyota Center in Houston, TX
Watch: TBS/truTV
Odds for Houston vs. Illinois
(odds as of Thurs., Mar. 26 at 6:30 a.m. PT)
Spread: Houston -2.5 (-112), Illinois +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 140.5 (-105), Under 140.5 (-115)
Houston vs. Illinois Prediction & Preview
For beating Idaho and Texas A&M by 62 combined points, Houston has earned a home game in the Sweet 16 against Illinois. The No. 2 seed in the South Region just so happens to be playing at the Toyota Center in Houston, so it will be a very one-sided crowd in Thursday’s game against the Fighting Illini. Illinois hasn’t quite had the margin of victory that Houston has, but the No. 3 seed has wins by 35 over Penn and 21 over VCU to get to this point. These are two top-six teams per Torvik and top-seven teams per KenPom, so this is more like an Elite Eight or Final Four game in the Sweet 16.
This is a really good matchup for the stats crowd to dig into and evaluate what matters more. Houston’s 20.7% TO% ranks in the top 15 nationally, while Illinois forces the lowest rate of turnovers in the country. However, the Illini are a top-20 offense in 2P%, while Houston ranks in the 160s, a difference of 6.1% between the two teams. Both are pretty identical in terms of 3-point success, but Illinois takes a lot more 3s, shooting one on more than 50% of their shot attempts. Houston’s shot share on “Farther Twos” as defined by Torvik is nearly 20% higher than Illinois’, so the Illini have a huge edge in the shot selection department.
With games like this, the full body of work can be a bit misleading, though. It’s important to look at games against comparable competition since both teams, as we saw in the first and second rounds, dominate lesser opponents.
Take the Illini’s 3P% down to 34.6% in games against Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 1-A opponents. While they still own a 6% advantage in 2P% differential, the two teams are very close in 3-point success rate. But, it should also be said that Houston’s TO% drops to 16.2% in games against elite-to-great competition. Houston hasn’t gotten the same rate of extra possessions in Q1 and Q1A games, but they do still have the better defensive numbers in this matchup, largely because of their 2P% defense that ranks 14th in the nation in these games.
Simply put, Illinois has the better offense. Houston has the better defense. Brad Underwood digs a little bit deeper into his bench than Kelvin Sampson does and that could be a difference maker in what projects to be a physical, slow-paced, closely-contested game.
And, of course, it will be a pro-Houston crowd to say the least. That is factored into the spread here and Houston is just a slight favorite, so take that for what it’s worth.
Estimated Score: Houston 70.8, Illinois 68.2
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