Houston vs. Iowa State
We are less than a month away from Selection Sunday, so things are really ramping up in the college basketball world. The teams in Monday’s marquee matchup of Houston vs. Iowa State won’t have to fret about hearing their names called on March 15, but this is the type of game that can absolutely impact a seed line. This massive Big 12 matchup in Ames is a 9 p.m. ET tip-off and features two of the nation’s stingiest defenses.
Collectively, the Cougars and Cyclones are 45-5 on the season, so these are two teams that aren’t accustomed to losing games, but one of them will suffer a setback as the regular season winds down. After this matchup, these two teams only have five regular season games left before descending on Kansas City for the Big 12 Conference Tournament from March 10-14. When the time comes, we’ll have previews up for every single conference tournament, including that one.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 15, 4:45 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Houston vs. Iowa State (-1.5, 134.5)
9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The nightcap of Monday’s ESPN doubleheader will follow Syracuse vs. Duke, as we go from a favorite of more than 20 points to a coin flip type of game at Hilton Coliseum. This is the only head-to-head meeting in the regular season for these two, but there is certainly a chance that they meet down the line, either in the conference tournament or maybe in the Elite Eight or Final Four.
Both of Houston’s losses have come away from home, as they lost in a neutral setting to Tennessee back on Nov. 25 and at Texas Tech on Jan. 24. This is a Quadrant I-A game and Houston is 2-2 in those, with wins over Arkansas (N) and at BYU. Iowa State’s three losses are all Quadrant I games, but they are 3-1 in Quadrant 1-A games, knocking off St. John’s on a neutral as well as Purdue on the road and Kansas at home. Their road loss at Kansas back on Jan. 13 is their one Q1-A loss, with a follow-up loss to Cincinnati and a bad loss at TCU on Feb. 10.
Overall, these two teams rank in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency for Bart Torvik and top six for KenPom. Both are top-20 in the adjusted offensive efficiency department for KP and top 17 for Torvik, but Houston has a big edge due to the lowest TO% in the nation on offense. Turnovers are a huge part of the efficiency metrics on both ends of the floor, but Iowa State is a much better team when it comes to making shots. The Cyclones are a top-five 3P% unit and a top-40 2P% group, while Houston is just slightly better than the national average from 3 and in the 110s on 2s.
There are also some big differences in shot selection between the two teams. According to Haslametrics’ Proximity stat, a metric of near-proximity shots and 3-pointers, Houston actually has the 18th-highest proximity, meaning that they do not get to the rim a lot. They are extremely reliant on mid-range jumpers and 3s. As mentioned, they’re just slightly above average shooting 3s. Iowa State has a much higher rate of shot attempts at the rim and fewer mid-range jumpers, which can be higher-risk, lower-reward shots.
Both teams have three scorers in double figures. Iowa State is led by sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic, who is shooting 51.6% on 3 for the season and leads the team with 18.4 PPG. Leading rebounder Joshua Jefferson has 16.7 PPG and is shooting better than 39% from beyond the arc. Veteran guard Tamin Lipsey leads the team in assists per game and has chipped in 13.2 PPG. It is worth noting that Momcilovic is terrific at the free throw line, but Jefferson and Lipsey are not, which could be problematic moving forward.
Emanuel Sharp leads the Cougars with 16.6 PPG, just slightly ahead of Kingston Flemings with 16.4 PPG. Flemings has also dished out over five dimes per game. He’s a more efficient shooter than Sharp, but both guys carry a lot of the load from 3. Milos Uzan is the other double-digit guy for Houston with 11.2 PPG, but he’s only shooting 38.3% from the floor.
Houston vs. Iowa State Prediction
When putting these teams into perspective from a conference standpoint, Houston is first in adjusted offensive and second in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Iowa State is fifth and fourth, respectively. However, the home team is shooting 38.6% from 3 in Big 12 play, while Houston is only shooting 33.2%. Iowa State is second in eFG% offense and fifth in eFG% defense, while Houston is sixth and second, respectively. Houston’s biggest advantage is in the turnover department, but Iowa State has taken better care of the ball at home and should make more shots.
Pick: Iowa State -1.5
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