Houston vs. Kansas
A trip to Phog Allen Fieldhouse is always daunting and perhaps more than usual right now for the Houston Cougars. They’ve lost consecutive games for the first time since January 9-13, 2024. You have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last three-game losing streak for Kelvin Sampson’s program. In other words, Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks can make a little bit of history Monday evening.
This Houston vs. Kansas game is the third huge battle in a row for the Cougars, who lost last week to Iowa State and Arizona. It seems odd to say that a game against the Jayhawks is “easy”, but given that the two losses have come against top-six teams and Kansas merely ranked eighth in the AP Poll as of Sunday. Bart Torvik has the Jayhawks 15th, while KenPom has them 19th, so it is a step down in class.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 22, 5:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Houston (-1.5, 136.5) vs. Kansas
9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Houston’s claim to fame has been their undoing in the last two games. This is a defense that ranks 12th in the nation in TO% at 21.4%. In the last two games, the Cougars have only had TO% marks of 5.1% and 7.7%. Kansas takes good care of the basketball, sitting in the top 80 nationally and fourth among Big 12 teams in conference games in TO%, so we’ll see if the Cougars have more success forcing the issue here.
Losing to Iowa State and Arizona hardly triggers a bunch of doom and gloom, especially compared to what Kansas just did. The Jayhawks were pummeled at home by Cincinnati in a 16-point loss that saw the Bearcats rack up 1.242 points per possession. It was the second-worst defensive performance in a game for Kansas this season. And Cincinnati is hardly an offensive juggernaut.
The daily drama with Darryn Peterson has been an unwelcome distraction for KU. It is clear that he is an incredible player, as he’s averaged 19.8 PPG and is shooting better than 41% from 3, but health issues and questions about his attitude have come into play a lot. He actually missed Kansas’ best win of the season against Arizona back on Feb. 9. He’s been out there for the recent blowout losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State, as well as the early win over a poor Oklahoma State team.
We’ll have to wait and see what he does here in a game that should be very physical. Houston plays aggressively on defense, hammers the offensive glass, and they are not afraid to commit fouls while forcing opposing players to earn all of their buckets. Houston’s advantage on the glass should be pretty evident here, as they are second in Big 12 play in ORB% and Kansas is just 13th.
One sticking point for me in every single Cougars game is their shot selection. This is a team shooting just 33.2% from 3 in conference games, which ranks 11th. They don’t get to the rim at a high rate, even with all of those ORebs, so they put a heavy burden on the defense to get stops. Houston has a 24.3% shot share on Close Twos as defined by Torvik. Kansas, meanwhile, has a 36.7% shot share on those types of attempts. With such a jump shot-reliant offense, you can see why Houston ranks eighth in eFG% among Big 12 teams in conference games.
Kansas is fourth in both 2P% and 3P% in conference play. Their problem is that they have such a low TO% on offense that they don’t get extra possessions to further maximize their offensive efficiency. They’ve had a TO% under 16% in six of their seven losses and they are unlikely to have a lot of takeaways against Houston here.
Peterson isn’t the only contributor for Kansas, as Flory Bidunga, Tre White, and Melvin Council Jr. are all in double figures for the season. Bidunga is also one of the nation’s top glass cleaners with 9.3 RPG. He’ll be a tough matchup for Houston freshman Chris Cenac Jr., who leads the Cougars with just shy of eight rebounds per game.
Kingston Flemings is a less-heralded freshman than Peterson, but he has been terrific with 16.6 PPG and 5.2 APG. Perhaps he’ll take it personally here and look to shine even more than usual. It helps that he has veteran knowhow alongside him in seniors Emanuel Sharp (16.4 PPG) and Milos Uzan (11.1 PPG).
Houston vs. Kansas Prediction
The Cougars have tripped up against two very good teams. Kansas is a good team as well, and they do have seven Quadrant 1 wins, but they also have some losses that are head-scratchers. Losing here would not be a head-scratcher. Kansas is likely to lose the turnover battle here and faces a disadvantage on the glass as well. The Cougars have senior leadership for the hostile environment and Flemings may have quite a chip on his shoulder going head-to-head with Peterson here. I don’t think Houston loses a third consecutive game.
PIck: Houston -1.5
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