Houston vs. Texas A&M Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 10 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Houston vs. Texas A&M is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Houston vs. Texas A&M
When: 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21st
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Watch: TNT
Odds for Houston vs. Texas A&M
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Houston -9.5 (-110), Texas A&M +9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 144.5 (-110), Under 144.5 (-110)
Houston vs. Texas A&M Prediction & Preview
It didn’t take long for Bucky McMillan to get his unique, high-powered offense going with Texas A&M. The Aggies were a top-40 team in the regular season when looking at Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (118.0), they were top-50 in both 3P% (36.2%) and 3PR (46.2%), and they played at a wildly fast tempo (74.2% – 25th in NCAA). That style helped A&M blow a good Saint Mary’s team out of the water in the first round, winning 63-50 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score suggested. Now, we’re set up for an interesting clash of styles, as the Aggies will face a Cougars team that moves at a snail’s pace and plays a very physical brand of basketball.
Houston is coming off a runner-up finish in last year’s NCAA Tournament, so these Cougars are hoping to take things a step further and finally earn Kelvin Sampson a title. Sampson has been one of the best coaches in college basketball for a very long time, and Houston has been knocking on the door for a while now. Well, this year’s team has a shot.
The Cougars are often left out of the national conversation when looking at top-tier programs, as that talk centers on Arizona, Duke, Michigan, and Florida. However, Houston is right there when looking at the team’s statistical profile at both KenPom and Bart Torvik, as this is an elite team on both ends of the floor. The Cougars are also a little better than usual offensively, with their three-headed monster at guard having a lot to do with that.
Kingston Flemings, a freshman that should be a top-five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan can all do special things with the basketball. Flemings and Uzan are guys that can score and run the offense, while Sharp is a pure bucket-getter. But all three should really take advantage of an Aggies defense that leaves a bit to be desired — especially when it comes to contesting shots at the rim. That’ll also play into the strengths of both Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr., who do the dirty work for this Houston team. Texas A&M generally plays five players 6’9” and shorter, and that should allow the Cougars to dominate the glass and out-muscle the Aggies.
A&M really is a fun team, but this feels like a brutal matchup. The Aggies play a bunch of guards, hoping to run opponents off the floor. However, the Cougars are really going to try and slow them down. That should take A&M out of its rhythm. Also, even if the Cougars can’t turn this into a grind-it-out game, I believe their guards are better offensively than the ones the Aggies play. That said, Houston should be able to hold its own in a shootout.
It’s also hard to ignore that Texas A&M struggled against elite competition this year. The team lost by 19 at home against Florida, 13 on the road against Vanderbilt, and 15 on the road against Arkansas. Well, Houston is a lot closer to being Florida than those other two. That said, I’m finding it hard to come up with reasons not to expect a double-digit win for the Cougars, who are just a better and more physical team than the Aggies.
Estimated Score: Houston 76.2, Texas A&M 66.9
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
