Illinois vs. Penn Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 14 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Illinois vs. Penn is the first-round game on Thursday, March 19 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Illinois vs. Penn
When: 6:50 pm ET on Thursday, March 19th
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC
Watch: TNT
Odds for Illinois vs. Penn
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Illinois -23.5 (-110), Penn +23.5 (-110)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110), Under 149.5 (-110)
Illinois vs. Penn Prediction & Preview
Brad Underwood has been to five consecutive NCAA Tournaments with Illinois and has lost in the first weekend four times, including as a No. 1 seed in 2021. The question surrounding this program isn’t talent — it never really has been. It’s whether Underwood can translate a strong regular season body of work into a deep March run, and this year’s team gives him another legitimate shot. All seven regular season losses came in Quadrant 1 games, six of them in Quadrant 1-A matchups, and five of the seven were by four or fewer points with three going to overtime. That’s a .500 record against the best opponents on the schedule, which you can frame as encouraging or concerning depending on your disposition. Both readings are defensible.
The statistical profile is the part that deserves the additional scrutiny. Illinois launches 3s on nearly 51% of their shot attempts while converting at just under 35%, and they ranked dead last in the nation in defensive turnover rate per Bart Torvik. That is a combustible combination — a team that lives on jump shots and almost never forces turnovers is entirely at the mercy of whether the ball goes in. The saving graces are real: the Illini were among the national leaders in offensive rebounding, turning a lot of those deep misses into second chances, and they took exceptional care of the ball on offense with a top-15 turnover rate. So the floor is higher than the shooting variance suggests, but the ceiling is still defined by the 3-point shooting. A big night from deep and Illinois can beat anyone in the field. A normal night with cold shooting and limited turnovers forced, and suddenly a .500 record against elite opponents makes perfect sense.
Penn arrives in the Dance under Fran McCaffery, who left Iowa and returned to his alma mater to take his fifth different program to the NCAA Tournament. The story, though, starts and ends with TJ Power. The Virginia transfer put up 44 points and hit the game-tying 3 at the end of regulation against Yale in the Ivy Tournament, which followed up a game with 16 points and 12 rebounds in the semifinal win over Harvard the day before. McCaffery didn’t overhaul the roster — that’s not really possible in the Ivy League, where academic requirements and financial priorities make portal maneuvering a more deliberate process — but landing Power was one of the shrewdest single additions any coach made this season.
The Quakers were inconsistent early, starting 9-10 overall and 2-4 in conference play before something clicked. Penn won seven of their final eight regular season games and ran through the Ivy Tournament, getting revenge on Yale after a February loss had snapped a four-game winning streak. The defensive profile is legitimately respectable for an Ivy League team — Penn ranked second in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency behind Harvard and posted the best turnover differential in conference play. They shot better than 37% from 3 and rebounded well on both ends. The primary vulnerability is interior defense, as opponents shot 54.5% on 2s in conference play, and the 2-point shooting in the Ivy Tournament was concerning — Penn went just 33-of-81 on 2s across the two tournament games.
That interior weakness runs directly into an Illinois team that, despite its reliance on 3s, was among the national leaders in offensive rebounding and takes smart shots inside the arc when the perimeter isn’t working. Power will keep Penn competitive, and McCaffery will have his team prepared and executing a disciplined game plan — especially with the Big Ten familiarity that comes with him having coached against this team plenty of times. But the gap in overall talent and depth is significant, and Underwood finally has a first-round matchup where the résumé on the other side doesn’t warrant much anxiety. The real test for Illinois — and for Underwood’s legacy — probably comes after this one.
Estimated Score: TBD
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