Illinois vs. VCU Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Illinois vs. VCU is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Illinois vs. VCU
When: 7:50 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21st
Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina
Watch: CBS
Odds for Illinois vs. VCU
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Illinois -9.5 (-110), VCU +9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 155.5 (-110), Under 155.5 (-110)
Illinois vs. VCU Prediction & Preview
Illinois destroyed Penn in the opening round, winning 105-70 as a 25.5-point favorite. That’s exactly what you’d like to see out of a high-quality Big Ten team facing an Ivy League program, but things will get a little more interesting in the second round. While VCU is a mid-major program, this is a team that consistently shows up in March. And we just saw the Rams earn a remarkable 82-78 overtime win over the Tar Heels, coming back from a 19-point deficit to book their spot in the Round of 32. VCU is a team with high-major quality talent, meaning this isn’t an opponent that Illinois can take lightly.
This is a game in which the Over jumps out immediately. Both of these teams are better offensively than they are defensively, with the Fighting Illini actually being the second-best team in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (131.9 entering March Madness). Meanwhile, the Rams are a top-50 group (119.2 before tournament). These are also two teams that do a lot of damage from behind the 3-point line. Illinois doesn’t shoot the highest percentage in the world, but the team is 12th in the nation in 3-point rate (50.7% pre-Madness). That volume means points can go on the board in a hurry. VCU shoots the heck out of it, too. The Rams are a top-30 team in 3-point percentage (36.9% before March Madness), while also being top 100 in 3-point rate (43.6% pre-Madness). Overall, when teams are shooting the 3-ball the way these ones do, it’s hard not to like the idea of hoping for a shootout — especially with both programs featuring low-turnover offenses.
As far as the side goes, I’d be looking to take the points in this one. I mentioned the way these teams play offense, but I like how good VCU is about running opponents off the 3-point line. Heading into the tournament, the Rams were 44th in the nation in 3PRD (34.9%). They’re going to do their best to contest absolutely everything the Illini throw up.
It’s also worth nothing that VCU has players that won’t back down from Keaton Wagler. In theory, the Illini should have the best player on the floor, as Wagler is considered a potential top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. But don’t tell Terrence Hill Jr. that. He just dropped 34 points on the Tar Heels, while also adding five assists and five boards in 40 minutes. He’ll be ready to roll for this one, and he should enjoy the matchup quite a bit. Also, Lazar Djokovic’s ability to space the floor as a big man could force Zvonimir Ivisic, an excellent rim protector, to defend a little further away from the basket. That’ll open up driving lanes for the rest of Djokovic’s VCU teammates to go to the cup.
I also think there’s something to VCU playing with house money. Nobody expects much of anything from the Rams, but the Illini can’t afford another early exit under Brad Underwood. That puts a lot of pressure on an Illinois team that cost a lot of money to put together.
Estimated Score: Illinois 81.6, VCU 70.1
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
