Iowa State vs. Kentucky Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Iowa State vs. Kentucky is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Iowa State vs. Kentucky
When: TBD p.m. ET on Sunday, March 22nd
Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO
Watch: TBD
Odds for Iowa State vs. Kentucky
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Iowa State -5.5 (-110), Kentucky +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 144.5 (-110), Under 144.5 (-110)
Iowa State vs. Kentucky Prediction & Preview
The Madness of March was on display in Kentucky’s 89-82 overtime win over Santa Clara. A frantic final 12 seconds saw two lead changes and then a game-tying 3 from just over halfcourt that spared the Wildcats from getting bounced in the Round of 64 for the third time in five seasons. One team’s heartbreak is another team’s chance to move forward, and while the Broncos gave Kentucky everything they could handle, Otega Oweh’s 35 points and seven assists proved just a little too much to overcome.
Kentucky didn’t have long to celebrate before having to prepare for Iowa State, who had a much easier time in their 2 vs. 15 game against Tennessee State. We’ll see if fatigue plays any kind of factor, as Kentucky had two players play over 40 minutes and two more play 32+ minutes in the battle with Santa Clara. Iowa State didn’t have to spend nearly as much energy.
Protecting the basketball will be key in this game if the Wildcats hope to pull the upset. They lost the turnover battle 11-7 to Santa Clara in the first round, a game played to 75 possessions. They also lost the battle on the offensive glass. Losing the shot volume and possession battle like that to Iowa State is going to make it very difficult to find success. The Cyclones were a solid team in a lot of metrics, but one area where they shine is TO% on defense, forcing opponents to give up the ball on more than 22% of their possessions. Pair that with a top-10 3P% and a top-20 eFG% and you can see why this offense thrived off of taking the basketball away.
Not only that, but Iowa State won in the rebounding department more often than not as well. Their rebounding percentages on both ends of the floor were higher than Kentucky’s during the regular season and conference tournament, though we can obviously debate the SEC vs. the Big 12 from a conference strength standpoint. Surprisingly, Iowa State is 4-1 in games decided by six or fewer points, shooting just over 67% at the free throw line. For a team that bombs away at nearly 39% from beyond the arc to struggle that much with uncontested shots at the charity stripe is somewhat mind-boggling. Only about 25 teams have a lower FT% than Iowa State.
Kentucky will have to close out hard on the shooters here. Brandon Garrison did that with two enormous blocks in overtime and Santa Clara was ultimately 12-of-33 from deep, but started much hotter than that. That was something that the Wildcats did very well during the season, even in a trigger-happy conference, as they enter this game inside the top 50 in 3P% defense. If they can keep Iowa State to a reasonable percentage from deep, not only can they cover the spread, but they would greatly increase their chances of an outright upset and a second straight Sweet 16 appearance. Specifically, Garrison and his teammates will have to make life uncomfortable for Milan Momcilovic, who has made nearly 50% of his 260+ 3-point shots.
Estimated Score: TBD
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