Iowa State vs. Tennessee Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Iowa State vs. Tennessee is the Sweet 16 game at 10:10 p.m. ET on Friday, March 27 with a trip to Elite Eight on the line.
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How to Watch Iowa State vs. Tennessee
When: 10:10 pm ET on Friday, March 27th
Where: United Center in Chicago, IL
Watch: TBS/truTV
Odds for Iowa State vs. Tennessee
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Iowa State -3.5 (-115), Tennessee +3.5 (-105)
Total: Over 138.5 (-110), Under 138.5 (-110)
Iowa State vs. Tennessee Prediction & Preview
After playing about six hours to the southeast of Ames, Iowa State now plays about five hours to the east in Chicago, as the Cyclones will try to make it to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2000. This is their third Sweet 16 appearance over the five years of the T.J. Otzelberger era, but they’ve come up short against Illinois and Miami (FL) in two previous tries. If they are victorious, they will prevent Tennessee from making it to the Elite Eight for the third straight year. Prior to 2024, the Vols only had one previous Elite Eight appearance back in 2010, which is kind of crazy to think about given some of the talent that has rolled through Knoxville.
It wasn’t pretty, but Tennessee outlasted Virginia to get this S16 opportunity in a 79-72 decision, long after Iowa State was already heading back to Ames after blowing out Kentucky. The Cyclones will get a crack at another SEC team here, but one that is objectively better than the Wildcats.
The key to this game is extremely obvious. Tennessee is not a very good offensive team. Because of their strength of schedule, they are a top-35 team by adjusted offensive efficiency, but rank in the 150s in eFG% offense and below the national average in 3P%. They are an elite team on the offensive glass and that could be a saving grace here, but this is a team that has some major issues in the offensive half-court. Furthermore, Tennessee’s 3P Rate ranks in the 330s nationally. It’s simply not a big part of their game and really only two players, Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, are willing to fire regularly from deep.
While Iowa State doesn’t fire from anywhere on the floor, it is a huge part of their offense because of how well they shoot the basketball. Overall, the Cyclones are shooting about 39% from beyond the arc. Pair that with a top-50 2P% and a low TO% and you’ve got the makings of an outstanding offense. It should be noted that Iowa State’s offensive numbers absolutely shined at Hilton Coliseum and left a little to be desired in road and neutral settings, but they were 20-of-52 (38.5%) from 3 in St. Louis, a notoriously tough shooting environment, at least during the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
What was most impressive about Iowa State’s second-round win over Kentucky is that it came without Joshua Jefferson, the team’s leader in Usage Rate and a stat sheet filler across the board. They still scored 1.184 points per possession and held Kentucky to .910, which is lower than what they allowed to Tennessee State in the first round. Everybody rallied and did a bit more and the Cyclones defense flexed their muscles in their best area – forcing turnovers. The Cyclones had 61 shot attempts to just 45 for Kentucky, as the Wildcats turned the ball over 20 times.
Tennessee has actually posted a negative TO% differential during the season to this point and turning the ball over is what let Virginia back in the game in the second round on Sunday.
Not surprisingly, the numbers do drop across the board for both teams if we filter games by just Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1-A opponents, but Iowa State still has the big turnover percentage advantage. Both teams have a negative differential in eFG% offense and defense, though, so consider that when also looking at what should be a low-possession game. Iowa State’s is much smaller at -0.4% compared to Tennessee’s at -3.4%, with identical defensive numbers, but a big offensive gap in favor of the Cyclones.
Estimated Score: TBD
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