College basketball best bets and projections

Going into Friday’s Final Four matchups, I called it perhaps the biggest night in women’s college basketball history. It did not disappoint. Even though South Carolina eventually pulled away from NC State (as my T Shoe Index correctly predicted), it was a one-point Gamecock lead at halftime and NC State felt very much in the game. I’d love to have been a fly on the wall for that Dawn Staley halftime speech that propelled South Carolina to a dominant second half performance to inch them one step closer to the perfect season. 

TSI projected the score of this game to be 79-62 and the final was 78-59, meaning TSI was all over this game and we cashed our best bet of South Carolina -11.5.

 

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The marquee game of the night lived up to the hype, and then some. Iowa and Connecticut traded blows all game long, and it wasn’t until the final nine seconds that you truly knew who was going to win. I wrote before the game that Geno Auriemma had to make a decision in that game about letting Caitlin Clark beat them, but limiting everyone else, or try to suffocate Clark and make the supporting cast win. He chose the latter, and it almost worked if not for a second half resurgence from Clark after just a couple baskets in the first half and a memorable performance from center Hannah Stuelke, to eke the Hawkeyes past the Huskies and into the national championship. 

TSI projected Iowa -0.5 in that game, which they won by two, bringing the TSI total error for the night to a mere 3.5 points, much to the delight of my X followers who played U Conn +3.5 and completed the 2-0 sweep on the night. So, how does TSI see the national championship game playing out?

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here is my TSI projections for the Women’s National Championship Game:

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-6.5, 161)

TSI projection: South Carolina -13, 161

South Carolina has opened as a 6.5 point favorite over Clark and the Hawkeyes, with an O/U of 161. While TSI is in lockstep with oddsmakers on the total – TSI projects 161 – the model indicates the game could be more lopsided, projecting a 13-point Gamecocks win to clinch the perfect season by a score of 87-74. 

From a matchup standpoint, I think there are three distinct advantages in favor of Dawn Staley’s crew for this game:

1. Iowa does not substitute a whole lot, so the starters all played extremely heavy minutes in what was a rock fight for 40 minutes on Friday, while the Gamecocks’ starters were able to put the game away much sooner and allow some reserves to get minutes, which should translate to a decent rest advantage. 

2. The frontcourt of South Carolina is, in my opinion, far superior to that of the Hawkeyes. Kamilla Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins (off the bench) are dominant in the paint and on the glass, and I’m not sure Hannah Stuelke has another stellar performance in the tank after what she had to do Friday night. 

3. Dawn Staley is a far better coach and in-game adjustment maker than Lisa Bruder. I was screaming at my TV for most of the Iowa game Friday night because of the seemingly basic counters that could be made to what Auriemma threw at Iowa, and those counters never came from Bluder. I certainly have doubts that she’s ready for the chess match with a basketball savant like Staley. Iowa’s run has been captivating and great for the sport, but I think it ends here.

Bet: South Carolina -6.5

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