Kansas vs. Texas Tech
The Monday, February 2 college basketball slate is light on both quantity and quality, but there is one game that should live up to the hype and it is the Big 12 battle in Lubbock with Kansas vs. Texas Tech. The Jayhawks are looking to run their winning streak out to six games, while the Red Raiders are hoping to start a new one, as UCF won on Saturday to stop a five-game heater for Grant McCasland’s squad.
This game features two of the three ranked teams in action on Monday and ESPN will have a broadcast team in the Lone Star State here, so this will be a good opportunity to get your eyes on these teams, as we’ll see a lot more of them on national TV the rest of the way and will certainly see them in the NCAA Tournament.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 2, 12:45 am PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech (-4.5, 154.5)
9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Kansas opened the season with a blowout win over Green Bay, a game in which the Jayhawks scored 1.458 points per possession. Their last two games have been their two best offensive showings since, as Bill Self’s boys had 1.323 PPP in a rout of rival Kansas State and then 1.300 in Saturday’s win at Phog Allen over BYU. During this five-game run, Kansas has won every game by 6+ points and three of them by 18+, so they’re in a nice groove.
You’ll hear the name Darryn Peterson a lot in this one, as the potential No. 1 overall pick is a big talking point anytime he’s on the floor. He hasn’t been on the floor a ton, as Bart Torvik has Peterson down for just 34.5% of the available minutes this season. He missed the Kansas State game last week, but did play against BYU and had 18 points in 20 minutes. Peterson has played 11 of the Jayhawks’ 21 games and has scored at least 16 points in each of them.
While he’s the most heralded player on the roster, his spotty availability has pushed others into the spotlight, including Tre White, who has 14.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG, and Flory Bidunga, who has 14.5 PPG and 8.9 RPG while also being among the nation’s leaders in blocked shots.
Bidunga’s presence, among others, will make for a really interesting game here. The Red Raiders take a ton of jump shots, as they have one of the lowest shot shares on Close Twos as defined by Torvik in the nation. Kansas defends extremely well on the interior rim, as protection is definitely an asset for them. But, the Red Raiders are looking to shoot the basketball and Kansas is 10th in the Big 12 in 3P% defense at just 35.8%. Texas Tech leads the conference in 3P% offense at 41.9%.
So, that’ll be the key to this one. Double-double machine JT Toppin has averaged 22.4 PPG and 10.9 RPG, but he’s only a 27.3% 3-point shooter. He’s a guy that can play inside-out and his big presence opens up shots for the guys on the perimeter. The Red Raiders are looking to fire a lot of 3s with the 35th-highest 3P Rate in the nation. The Jayhawks have allowed 10+ made 3-pointers in five of their eight conference games.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech Prediction
Neither team forces a lot of turnovers, so the result of this game will be based on the more efficient halfcourt offense. I prefer Kansas in that respect because they can score at the rim, from the mid-range, and from deep. Texas Tech is unlikely to get a lot of easy buckets on the inside here, so they’re the higher-variance of the two teams.
Pick: Kansas +4.5
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