Makinen Game Grade Forecast and Projections for the Sweet 16

Makinen Game Grade Forecast and Projections for the Sweet 16:

Before the NCAA Tournament, I detailed Game Grade Forecast, a new metric I’ve been working on. The first weekend results from the GGF this year weren’t quite as strong as last year’s, but there were some obvious highlights, with No. 1-rated Duke easily covering the number in both of its games, and No. 8-rated Colorado State also going 2-0 ATS and being just three seconds away from a Sweet 16 berth. 

I’ve rerun the numbers for the upcoming games and have ranked the teams accordingly. If you go back and look at the figures from last week, you’ll see that some teams have dropped a bit while others, such as Arkansas, Michigan and Ole Miss, rose a lot based on their strong performances in the first two rounds. 

You’ll see I’ve also updated the percentage chances of each team winning its next game as well as winning and advancing for the rest of the tournament based on the average of my four strength ratings. These were originally published in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide and I’ve updated them based on the teams remaining. 

You’ll see that I’ve also offered up a few new wagering choices based on the GGFs and percentages, too. I’m 3-1 with one still pending in my five Best Bets from the March Mania Betting Guide. Here are those plays:

* Colorado State -2.5 over Memphis first round – WIN
* Maryland to make Sweet 16 (-180) – WIN
* Michigan State to make Sweet 16 (-180) – WIN
* Gonzaga to make Sweet 16 (+340) – LOSS
* Duke to win national title (+325) – Pending

Here are the updated MAKINEN GAME GRADE FORECASTS entering the second week of the NCAA Tournament: 

2025 Tournament Teams ranked by GGF (as of March 25)

1. DUKE (East #1): 32.3
2. FLORIDA (West #1): 27.9
3. ALABAMA (East #2): 25.1
4. MARYLAND (West #4): 22.1
5. MICHIGAN STATE (South #2): 21.6
6. HOUSTON (Midwest #1): 22.2
7. TENNESSEE (Midwest #2): 19.9
8. AUBURN (South #1): 19.4
9. TEXAS TECH (West #3): 18.4
10. BYU (East #6): 18.9
11. KENTUCKY (Midwest #3): 19.2
12. ARIZONA (East #4): 17.7
13. ARKANSAS (West #10): 17.6
14. PURDUE (Midwest #4): 16.3
15. OLE MISS (South #6): 15.9
16. MICHIGAN (South #5): 14.6 

2025 Tournament Teams ranked by Percentage Chances of Advancing (as of March 25)

Now, here are the percentage chances of winning and advancing in the tournament, based on the average of my four sets of strength ratings. They are sorted in order of percentage chance to win the national championship: 

Rank – Team – %WSwt16 – %WElt8 – %WFin4 – %WChmp
1. DUKE: 77.1% / 54.8% / 38.7% / 26.2%
2. FLORIDA: 64.5% / 44.9% / 27.6% / 14.5%
3. AUBURN: 73.6% / 49.0% / 27.8% / 13.8%
4. HOUSTON: 72.4% / 47.8% / 22.6% / 12.6%
5. ALABAMA: 64.5% / 25.4% / 13.9% / 7.2%
6. MICHIGAN STATE: 65.9% / 29.5% / 13.5% / 5.3%
7. TEXAS TECH: 69.9% / 28.4% / 13.1% / 4.9%
8. TENNESSEE: 57.4% / 24.9% / 8.9% / 3.8%
9. MARYLAND: 35.5% / 19.9% / 9.3% / 3.6%
10. ARIZONA: 22.9% / 10.0% / 4.3% / 1.7%
11. KENTUCKY: 42.7% / 15.5% / 4.6% / 1.7%
12. BYU: 35.5% / 9.8% / 4.0% / 1.5%
13. MICHIGAN: 26.4% / 11.2% / 3.6% / 1.0%
14. PURDUE: 27.6% / 11.8% / 3.1% / 1.0%
15. OLE MISS: 34.2% / 10.3% / 3.1% / 0.8%
16. ARKANSAS: 30.2% / 6.9% / 1.9% / 0.4% 

Based on all of the above and the current lines/props being offered at DraftKings, I will be investing in the following:

Houston to win Midwest Region -130

To me, -130 on this prop is a small price to pay based on what we’ve seen in the first two rounds from the Cougars. Both Houston and Florida faced terribly underrated tasks as No. 1 seeds in the second round. Gonzaga was one of the highest-rated No. 8s I’ve ever encountered. What impressed me the most about coach Kelvin Sampson’s team was its ability to immediately answer any runs by the Zags with their offense. We all know that Houston excels on defense. However, the ability of guys like LJ Cryer, and in particular last weekend, Milos Uzan, to knock down big shots was refreshing for this team and a real sign that the Cougars are ready to take the next step. 

Michigan State -2.5 over Ole Miss

I had some concerns about Michigan State over the weekend, but they were all on the offensive side of the ball. It seemed to be completely hit or miss. The defense was solid as usual, however, for coach Tom Izzo’s club. That is a much different story than Ole Miss faced against Iowa State, which looked lazy and disinterested in the second half of their Round 2 game. Recall that Sweet 16 Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 38-17 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) run over the last 10 seasons. 

Houston-Purdue Under 132.5

I just spoke of how reliable Houston’s defense always is for Kelvin Sampson. Over the first two games of the tournament, they have been solid as ever on that end, and as we get into the deeper part of the tournament, I think we are going to see the Cougars rely more on their strength. Purdue is also playing very well defensively. With the spread at 8.5, this key trend will also be in play: Sweet 16 favorites of eight points or more are on a 27-8-3 Under (77.1%) the total run, allowing 62.7 PPG.