March Madness 2025: Winning Strategies for Brackets, Survivor Pools, and Calcuttas
Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven NCAA bracket picks and tools that have helped pool players win $2.5 million and 3.1 times the expected rate since 2017.
March Madness is almost here, and millions will enter bracket contests, survivor pools, and Calcutta auctions. While Lady Luck plays a role, data-driven strategies give players a real edge over gut-feel picks.
There is a special offer for VSiN readers and subscribers right here to use all of the tools that PoolGenius and Team Rankings have to offer.
What We Learned from Studying 19,436 Bracket Pools
For over 20 years, PoolGenius has refined bracket optimization software to help pool players outsmart the competition. Since 2015, subscriber insights have helped us fine-tune bracket advice that actually works—not just what sounds good on TV.
Here are the results:
- Subscribers have reported over $2.5 million in pool winnings—and that’s just from the 23% who responded to our surveys.
- Since 2015, PoolGenius subscribers have won bracket pools 3.1 times as often as expected.
- On average, 52% of subscribers have won a prize in at least one March Madness pool every year.
- In 2024, that number jumped to 61%, meaning the majority of subscribers won a bracket pool.
Clearly, beating your pool isn’t about getting lucky—it’s about having a smarter approach.
How This Data Leads to Smarter Bracket Picks
Our analysis of 19,436 bracket pools has shown that data-driven brackets consistently outperform those built on gut instinct—and that makes sense. Most NCAA bracket advice is generic and ignores key factors like scoring system and pool size. Without that context, how could it possibly predict which upsets are right for you?
Here’s a smarter approach—one that actually factors in what matters.
Three Keys to Better Bracket Picks:
1. Know Your Scoring System
Different pools require different strategies. A 1-2-4-8-16-32 format (where points double each round) makes your champion pick worth as much as all 32 first-round games combined. Most people take too many upsets in this format. On the other hand, flatter scoring systems (1-2-3-4-5-6) or upset bonus formats shift the strategy, increasing the value of first-round accuracy and underdog plays.
2. Pool Size StrategyÂ
Pool size changes everything. In smaller pools (under 50 entries), safe picks win more often as others take unnecessary risks. In larger pools, you need to make bold but calculated contrarian picks to separate yourself from the pack.
3. Game Theory Optimization
Winning isn’t about a perfect bracket—it’s about outscoring your competition. This is where the PoolGenius Bracket Optimizer shines, as it analyzes public pick trends (sourced from multiple bracket hosting sites—our secret sauce) and combines them with expected value (EV) ​​to find the smartest spots to follow the crowd or break away—especially in late-round, high-leverage matchups.
NCAA Bracket Optimizer from PoolGenius >>
NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Strategy
NCAA Tournament survivor pools add a fun twist to March Madness, requiring players to pick a team (or several) to win each round—without using that team again. Unlike traditional bracket contests, these pools require planning and adaptability as the tournament unfolds.
3 Tips to Win Your NCAA Survivor Pool:
1. Plan For Multiple RoundsÂ
Save the strongest teams likely to advance far for later rounds. Look for teams with good early matchups but a lower probability of reaching the Final Four.
2. Monitor Pick Popularity
Certain teams become extremely popular picks, especially after the first round. For example, after first-round upsets in 2021, Florida (facing 15-seed Oral Roberts) and UCLA (facing 14-seed Abilene Christian) became overwhelmingly popular second-round picks. Florida lost, eliminating many entries.
3. Consider Taking Calculated Risks
Unlike NFL survivor pools, where picking underdogs rarely makes sense, sometimes backing an underdog in later NCAA tournament rounds is smart if most remaining entries are concentrated on their opponent.
Survivor success comes from balancing immediate win probability with long-term survival. PoolGenius maps optimal paths using round advancement odds, so you’re never making a pick in the dark.
Get NCAA Plus (Bracket + Survivor) from PoolGenius >>
Calcutta Auction Strategy
Calcutta pools are the cool older cousin of traditional bracket contests—more intense, more strategic, and far less predictable.
In this format, participants bid on teams in an auction, with payouts based on how far those teams advance. It’s part game theory, part risk management, and part March Madness chaos. Here’s how to set yourself up for success.
Calcutta Auction Tips:
1. Determine Objective Team ValuesÂ
Convert advancement odds into expected pot percentage values. Otherwise, you’re bidding blind. (Good news—PoolGenius can do this for you.)
2. Look For Market Inefficiencies
The public tends to overvalue high-profile teams from major conferences and undervalue strong teams from less prestigious conferences or with recent tournament disappointments.
3. Early Bidding AdvantageÂ
Teams that come up for auction early often sell at a discount before the market establishes pricing patterns. Be ready to pounce on early values.
4. Track The BoardÂ
Pay attention to how many teams have gone to how many players. If several bidders are still waiting to buy their first team halfway through, expect prices to rise.
The goal in a Calcutta isn’t necessarily to own the champion—it’s to get teams for less than their expected return.
Get NCAA Plus (Bracket + Survivor + Calcutta) from PoolGenius >>
Why Smart Pool Players Choose PoolGenius
Our success isn’t just from basketball expertise—it’s from solving a mathematical optimization problem.
Our NCAA Bracket Picks tool combines:
- Objective team ratings adjusted for injuries and lineup changes
- Betting market data that factors in sharp money
- Public pick data to track what your opponents will likely do
- Millions of simulations to find the best plays for your pool
Unlike generic bracket advice, PoolGenius customizes picks to your pool settings—because the optimal bracket for a 25-person office pool is vastly different from the best approach for a 500-person contest with upset bonuses.
For less than most pool entry fees, you get access to the same advanced analytics that have helped thousands of subscribers dominate their bracket pools, survivor contests, and Calcutta auctions.
