The 2021 NCAA tournament is finally here! First-round games will be played on Friday and Saturday, and all March Madness games will take place in the state of Indiana.
Our experts — Josh Appelbaum, Bruce Marshall, Tim Murray, Greg Peterson, Wes Reynolds, David Stall, Dave Tuley and Matt Youmans — give their March Madness best bets and most likely upsets for every game.
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Record so far: 57-40
Odds are consensus from VSiN's March Madness Vegas Odds Page.
March Madness Picks for Title Game
No. 1 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4.5, 159.5)
Peterson: This is the matchup college basketball fans have wanted all year long (and almost got in December if it the game hadn’t been canceled due to COVID-19 protocols).
These are the top two offenses in the country in points scored on a per possession basis, but they do it in different ways, as Gonzaga leads the country in two-point shooting percentage and Baylor 3-point shooting percentage.
The biggest mismatch in this game, though, is going to be on the interior. Drew Timme has registered at least 22 points in each of Gonzaga’s last four games and his 7.1 rebounds per game are more than any Baylor player.
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Baylor ranks 289th in the country in defensive rebound rate, allows a second chance on 29.6% of opponents missed shots and shoots just 65.5% at the free throw line away from Waco, Texas. Gonzaga will win the game and cover this short number.
Pick: Gonzaga -4.5
Tuley: This is the matchup that most of us have been expecting all season to wrap up the Big Dance (with the exception of the short flirtation with Illinois at the end of the regular season and conference tournaments). It couldn’t have worked out any better for those who took our advice in the Feb. 24 issue of Point Spread Weekly on taking “Gonzaga/Baylor vs. the field” at 120 and then repeating it in the March 17 issue when it was up to 145. With the teams facing off in the title game, we don’t even have to be tempted to hedge. But we still want to bet the national title game and the lean is to Baylor plus the points.
Even though Gonzaga has been the favorite since last summer, Baylor has been a strong 1A and my initial thought when the line first game out Saturday night was that Gonzaga -5 was a little high. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not way off as I wavered between making Gonzaga -3 or -3.5 and feel the oddsmakers went with -5 because they felt all the money would be on the Bulldogs if using anything in that range. Instead, early money has shown on Baylor to drop the line to -4.5 as of Sunday afternoon.
I think the total is off by a lot more. It opened at 160 and early money has also dropped the total to 159.5 — and I believe that money is also on the right side. In fact, in every way I handicapped this game, I had both teams scoring in the 70’s, so the total should be closer to 155. Gonzaga plays at a faster tempo than Baylor and these are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com, so that’s probably why the total was set so high. However, both teams are capable of stepping up on defense and I think we’ll see that with so much on the line.
Pick: Under 159.5 (and lean to Baylor 4.5)
COMPLETED GAMES
No. 1 Baylor Bears (-26, 139) vs. No. 16 Hartford Hawks
Peterson: Hartford %plussign% 26
Final score: Baylor 79, Hartford 55
ATS winner: Hartford
Total: UNDER
No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (-22.5, 144.5) vs. No. 16 Drexel Dragons
Peterson: Over 144.5
Final score: Illinois 78, Drexel 49
ATS winner: Illinois
Total: UNDER
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5, 156.5) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Peterson: Oral Roberts %plussign% 16.5
Youmans: Oral Roberts %plussign% 16.5
Final score: Oral Roberts 75, Ohio State 72 (OT)
ATS winner: Oral Roberts
Total: UNDER
No. 8 Loyola Ramblers (-5.5, 124.5) vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Tuley: Georgia Tech %plussign% 5.5
Final score: Loyola 71, Georgia Tech 60
ATS winner: Loyola
Total: OVER
No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5, 130.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon State Beavers
Youmans: Oregon State %plussign% 8
Final score: Oregon State 70, Tennessee 56
ATS winner: Oregon State
Total: UNDER
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-5, 132) vs. No. 11 Utah State Aggies
Stall: Utah State %plussign% 5
Youmans: Texas Tech -4.5
Final score: Texas Tech 65, Utah State 53
ATS winner: Texas Tech
Total: UNDER
No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5, 161.5) vs. No. 14 Colgate Raiders
Peterson: Arkansas -8.5
Youmans: Colgate %plussign% 8.5
Final score: Arkansas 85, Colgate 68
ATS winner: Arkansas
Total: UNDER
No. 7 Florida Gators (PK, 135) vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech Hokies
Tuley: Virginia Tech %plussign% 1
Final score: Florida 75, Virginia Tech 70 (OT)
ATS winner: Florida
Total: OVER
No. 8 UNC Tar Heels (-1.5, 138) vs. No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers
Peterson: UNC -1.5
Final score: Wisconsin 85, UNC 62
ATS winner: Wisconsin
Total: OVER
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5, 126.5) vs. No. 13 North Texas Mean Green
Reynolds: Under 126.5
Final score: North Texas 78, Purdue 69 (OT)
ATS winner: North Texas
Total: OVER
No. 2 Houston Cougars (-20, 135) vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings
Peterson: Under 135
Final score: Houston 87, Cleveland State 56
ATS winner: Houston
Total: OVER
No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5, 141) vs. No. 13 Liberty Flames
Peterson: Oklahoma State -7.5
Reynolds: Liberty %plussign% 7.5
Final score: Oklahoma State 69, Liberty 60
ATS winner: Oklahoma State
Total: UNDER
No. 5 Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 143) vs. No. 12 Winthrop Eagles
Youmans: Winthrop %plussign% 6.5
Stall: Villanova -6
Final score: Villanova 73, Winthrop 63
ATS winner: Villanova
Total: UNDER
No. 6 San Diego State Aztecs (-3, 138.5) vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange
Stall: Over 137.5
Final score: Syracuse 78, SDSU 62
ATS winner: Syracuse
Total: OVER
No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (-12.5, 137.5) vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles
Peterson: Morehead State %plussign% 12.5
Final score: West Virginia 84, Morehead St. 67
ATS winner: West Virginia
Total: OVER
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-1.5, 126.5)
Stall: Under 129
Final score: Rutgers 60, Clemson 56
ATS winner: Rutgers
Total: UNDER
SATURDAY'S GAMES
No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (-26, 142.5)
Peterson: Michigan -26
Final score: Michigan 82, Texas Southern 66
ATS winner: Texas Southern
Total: OVER
No. 8 LSU Tigers (-1.5, 144.5) vs. No. 9 St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Tuley: St. Bonaventure %plussign% 1.5
Final score: LSU 76, St. Bonaventure 61
ATS winner: LSU
Total: UNDER
No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes (-5, 138) vs. No. 12 Georgetown Hoyas
Stall: Under 138.5
Final score: Colorado 96, Georgetown 73
ATS winner: Colorado
Total: OVER
No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-11, 145) vs. No. 13 UNC Greensboro Spartans
Peterson: Under 145
Final score: FSU 64, UNC Greensboro 54
ATS winner: UNC Greensboro
Total: UNDER
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (-11, 146) vs. No. 14 Eastern Washington Eagles
Peterson: Under 146
Youmans: Eastern Washington %plussign% 10.5
Final score: Kansas 93, Eastern Washington 84
ATS winner: Eastern Washington
Total: OVER
No. 5 Creighton Bluejays (-7, 138) vs. No. 12 UCSB Gauchos
Youmans: UCSB %plussign% 7
Peterson: UCSB %plussign% 7.5
Reynolds: UCSB %plussign% 7.5
Final score: Creighton 63, UCSB 62
ATS winner: UCSB
Total: UNDER
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17, 147) vs. No. 15 Iona Gaels
Peterson: Over 147
Youmans: Iona %plussign% 17
Tuley: Iona %plussign% 17
Final score: Alabama 68, Iona 55
ATS winner: Iona
Total: UNDER
No. 11 Drake Bulldogs vs. No. 6 USC Trojans (-6.5, 136)
Peterson: Drake %plussign% 6.5
Final score: USC 72, Drake 56
ATS winner: USC
Total: UNDER
No. 7 UConn Huskies (-3, 130) vs. No. 10 Maryland Terrapins
Stall: UConn -2.5
Marshall: UConn -2.5
Final score: Maryland 63, UConn 54
ATS winner: Maryland
Total: UNDER
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-2, 139.5) vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers
Peterson: Oklahoma -2
Final score: Oklahoma 72, Missouri 68
ATS winner: Oklahoma
Total: OVER
No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5, 131.5) vs. No. 13 Ohio Bobcats
Marshall: Ohio %plussign% 7.5
Tuley: Ohio %plussign% 7.5
Youmans: Ohio %plussign% 7.5
Final score: Ohio 62, Virginia 58
ATS winner: Ohio
Total: UNDER
No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 145) vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon Antelopes
Peterson: Grand Canyon %plussign% 14.5
Youmans: Grand Canyon %plussign% 14.5
Final score: Iowa 86, Grand Canyon 74
ATS winner: Grand Canyon
Total: OVER
No. 11 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars (-4, 139)
Peterson: UCLA %plussign% 4
Reynolds: UCLA %plussign% 4
Final score: UCLA 73, BYU 62
ATS winner: UCLA
Total: UNDER
No. 3 Texas Longhorns (-9, 140.5) vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats
Stall: Abilene Christian %plussign% 9
Youmans: Abilene Christian %plussign% 9
Final score: Abilene Christian 53, Texas 52
ATS winner: Abilene Christian
Total: UNDER
No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-34, 154.5)
Peterson: Over 154.5
Final score: Gonzaga 98, Norfolk State 55
ATS winner: Gonzaga
Total: UNDER
Second round
No. 8 Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs. No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 133.5)
Peterson: Under 133.5
Final score: Loyola 71, Illinois 58
ATS winner: Loyola (Chi)
Total: UNDER
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 1 Baylor Bears (-6.5, 136.5)
Peterson: Baylor -6.5
Final score: Baylor 76, Wisconsin 63
ATS winner: Baylor
Total: OVER
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1, 141) vs. No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks
Peterson: Arkansas moneyline
Tuley: Arkansas %plussign% 1
Final score: Arkansas 68, Texas Tech 66
ATS winner: Arkansas
Total: UNDER
No. 11 Syracuse Orange at No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 147.5)
Peterson: West Virginia -3.5
Tuley: Under 147.5
Final score: Syracuse 75, West Virginia 72
ATS winner: Syracuse
Total: UNDER
No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6, 140.5)
Peterson: Oklahoma State -6
No. 10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 2 Houston Cougars (-8.5, 132)
Peterson: Under 132.5
Final score: Houston 63, Rutgers 60
ATS winner: Rutgers
Total: UNDER
No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 Florida Gators (-8.5, 149)
Peterson: Over 148
Final score: Oral Roberts 81, Florida 78
ATS winner: Oral Roberts
Total: OVER
No. 13 North Texas Mean Green vs. No. 5 Villanova Wildcats (-7, 127)
Peterson: Under 127
Final score: Villanova 84, North Texas 61
ATS winner: Villanova
Total: OVER
No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes (-4, 144)
Peterson: Oregon %plussign% 5.5
Final score: Oregon 95, Iowa 80
ATS winner: Oregon
Total: OVER
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-14, 154)
Peterson: Under 154.5
Final score: Gonzaga 87, Oklahoma 71
ATS winner: Gonzaga
Total: OVER
MONDAY
No. 13 Ohio Bobcats vs. No. 5 Creighton Bluejays (-5.5, 150)
Peterson: Ohio %plussign% 5.5
Tuley: Ohio %plussign% 5.5
Final score: Creighton 72, Ohio 58
ATS winner: Creighton
Total: UNDER
No. 6 USC Trojans (-1, 135) vs. No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks
Peterson: USC -1
Murray: USC ML (-120)
Tuley: Kansas %plussign% 1.5
Final score: USC 85, Kansas 51
ATS winner: USC
Total: OVER
No. 8 LSU Tigers vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (-5, 148.5)
Youmans: LSU %plussign% 5.5
Final score: Michigan 86, LSU 78
ATS winner: Michigan
Total: OVER
No. 5 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-1.5, 138.5)
Youmans: FSU -1.5
Reynolds: Florida State -125 ML
Final score: FSU 71, Colorado 53
ATS winner: FSU
Total: UNDER
No. 14 Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins (-4.5, 134)
Peterson: UCLA -4.5
Final score: UCLA 67, Abilene Christian 47
ATS winner: UCLA
Total: UNDER
No. 10 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6, 137.5)
Peterson: Over 137.5
Reynolds: Maryland %plussign% 6
Final score: Alabama 96, Maryland 77
ATS winner: Alabama
Total: OVER
No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 8 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (-6.5, 125.5)
Stall: Under 126
Murray: Baylor/Loyola ML Parlay (-120)
Tuley: Oregon State %plussign% 6.5
Final score: Oregon State 65, Loyola 58
ATS winner: Oregon State
Total: UNDER
No. 5 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears (-6.5, 139)
Peterson: Baylor -6.5
Final score: Baylor 62, Villanova 51
ATS winner: Baylor
Total: UNDER
No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks (-11.5, 159)
Peterson: Oral Roberts %plussign% 11.5
Tuley: Oral Roberts %plussign% 11.5
Final score: Arkansas 72, Oral Roberts 70
ATS winner: Oral Roberts
Total: UNDER
No. 11 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars (-6, 140)
Stall: Houston -6
Tuley: Under 140.5
Youmans: Syracuse %plussign% 6
Final score: Houston 62, Syracuse 46
ATS winner: Houston
Total: UNDER
No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 USC Trojans (-1, 139)
Peterson: Oregon ML
Youmans: Oregon %plussign% 2.5
Reynolds: Under 139 and 1H Under 65
Final score: USC 82, Oregon 68
ATS winner: Oregon State
Total: OVER
No. 5 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13, 158.5)
Peterson: Over 158
No. 4 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (-3, 145.5)
Peterson: Under 145.5
Tuley: Florida State %plussign% 3
No. 11 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5, 144)
Peterson: Alabama -5.5
No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars (-8, 132.5)
Appelbaum: Oregon State %plussign% 8
Marshall: Oregon State %plussign% 7.5
No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears (-7.5, 149.5)
Tuley: Arkansas %plussign% 7.5
No. 6 USC Trojans vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-9, 153.5)
Murray: USC %plussign% 9
No. 11 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (-7.5, 136.5)
Tuley: UCLA %plussign% 7.5
FINAL FOUR
No. 11 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-14, 145)
Youmans: UCLA %plussign% 15.5/16 (waiting for the best number)
Tuley: UCLA %plussign% 14.5 and Under 146.5 or higher
Peterson: Gonzaga -14
