March Madness Elite Eight Analytics Report:

I continue the series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the Elite Eight Round. Best of luck on the Saturday and Sunday games.

 

Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Elite Eight round:

Prior Tournament Game Systems

Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the Saturday and Sunday:

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2

Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring 88 or more points have gone 57-10 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by 6 points or more.
Obviously a big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. I would think this system would be enhanced in short turnaround games.
This system favors Duke -6.5

Elite Eight Games

• The Elite Eight round has for long been a dangerous spot for better-seated teams, as they are just 50-46 SU and 36-56-4 ATS (39.1%) since 2000.
This trend goes against Duke -6.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -5.5, Houston -3.5

• Elite Eight favorites of 4 points or fewer have gone just 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS (23.1%) in their last 14 games and are just 17-33-1 ATS (34%) since 1998. However, both teams that qualified last year won their games outright and ATS.
This trend goes against Houston -3.5

• Elite Eight games have been decisive, with outright winners owning a stellar record of 65-5-2 ATS (92.9%) since 2006.
This trend favors all outright winners ATS

• The Elite Eight round is clearly a “survival round” for #1 seeds, as they are just 34-25 SU but 25-30-4 ATS (45.4%) in this round since 2001.
This trend goes against Duke -6.5, Florida -6.5, Auburn -5.5, Houston -3.5

• The Elite Eight round has easily been the best round to play Overs on totals, 88-66-2 (57.1%) since ’01. In games with lower totals of 143 or less, it has been 59 Over’s 30 Unders, for 66.3%.
This trend favors OVER the total in Duke-Alabama 174.5, Texas Tech-Florida 157.5, Michigan State-Auburn 148.5, Tennessee-Houston 123.5

• In Elite 8 games matching #1 and #3 seeds, the #1 has been stellar, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS since 2007 (73.3%).
This trend favors Florida -6.5

From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Elite Eight Round games on Saturday and Sunday:

ACC

Teams in the field/First matchup
DUKE (East #1) vs. Alabama-SEC

Trends

– Over the last three NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend favors Duke -6.5

– Seventeen of the last 24 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (70.8%). However, both went Over last year.
This trend favors UNDER the total in Alabama-Duke 174.5

– In that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup, underdogs are on a 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) surge since 2017.
This trend goes against Duke -6.5

Big 12

Teams in the field/First matchup
HOUSTON (Midwest #1) vs. Tennessee-SEC
TEXAS TECH (West #3) vs. Florida-SEC

Trends

–  Big 12 teams have lost 59 of their 74 NCAA tourney games since ‘00 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in those games.
This trend goes against Texas Tech +6.5

Big Ten

Teams in the field/First matchup
MICHIGAN ST (South #2) vs. Auburn-SEC

Trends

–  Overall, Big Ten teams and top 6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 49-33 SU but 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%) in that scenario.
This trend goes against Michigan State +5.5

– Big Ten teams are on a 13-8 SU and 15-5-1 ATS (75%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney, including 2-1 SU and ATS LY.
This trend favors Michigan State +5.5

– For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-53 SU and 21-38 ATS (35.6%) since ’98. They were 0-3 SU and ATS in this role a year ago, losing by 19 PPG.
This trend goes against Michigan State +5.5

– In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 22-35 SU and 23-32-2 ATS (41.8%) since 2017.
This trend goes against Michigan State +5.5

SEC

Teams in the field/First matchup
ALABAMA (East #2) vs. Duke-ACC
AUBURN (South #1) vs. Michigan State-Big Ten
FLORIDA (West #1) vs. Texas Tech-Big 12
TENNESSEE (Midwest #2) vs. Houston-Big 12

Trends

– The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. They were a combined 8-8 SU and ATS in ’24. This trend figures to get tested heavily in ’25.
This trend goes against Alabama +6.5, Auburn -5.5, Florida -6.5, Tennessee +3.5

– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA tourney games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend goes against Auburn -5.5, Florida -6.5, but favors Alabama +6.5, Tennessee +3.5

– SEC teams are on a 17-8 OVER the total (68%) run in Elite Eight games.
This trend favors Over the total in Duke-Alabama 174.5, Texas Tech-Florida 157.5, Michigan State-Auburn 148.5, Tennessee-Houston 123.5

Here are the Elite Eight teams’ recent history in this round plus any relevant head-to-head information:

(641) ALABAMA at (642) DUKE
* Duke and Alabama haven’t faced one another since 2013 in head-to-head play. Duke won that November game 74-64 as a 9 point favorite.
* Alabama has only played in one Elite 8 game in the last 20 seasons, winning last year over Clemson 89-82.
* Duke has played in 12 Elite Eight games since 2000, going 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS. However, they are on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide currently, including a 76-64 loss to NC State a year ago.

(643) TEXAS TECH at (644) FLORIDA
* Texas Tech and Florida played only one recent head-to-head game, in 2018, with the Red Raiders (-1.5) winning 69-66 in the NCAA tourney second round.
* Texas Tech reached the Elite Eight in both 2017 and 2018, winning the latter in upset fashion (+5) over Gonzaga, 75-69.
* Florida has been in eight Elite Eight games since 2000, going 4-4. However, the Gators are on a 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS skid in such contests, last losing in 2017.

(645) MICHIGAN ST at (646) AUBURN
* There are no recent head-to-head games between Michigan State and Auburn
* Michigan State has a rich recent history in Elite Eight play, going 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS since 2000. However, the most recent appearance and win was in 2019.
* Auburn played in the Elite Eight in 2019, edging Kentucky 77-71 as a 4.5-point underdog.

(647) TENNESSEE at (648) HOUSTON
* There are no recent head-to-head games between Tennessee and Houston
* Tennessee was in the Elite Eight round last year, and in 2010, losing both games SU and ATS. Both games were against Big Ten teams.
* Houston was in the Elite Eight round in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS..

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